While the Cannes, Venice, and Telluride film festivals were successful in showcasing a number of Oscar hopefuls including Carol, The Danish Girl, Steve Jobs, and Spotlight, among others – this year’s in progress Toronto Film Festival has already premiered several titles that have seen their awards hope dim.
One is Freeheld, a domestic partnership drama starring Julianne Moore, Ellen Page, Steve Carell, and Michael Shannon. Directed by Peter Sollett and based on a 2007 documentary, this was looked at as a potential contender in several categories before it screened up north. Reviews have been very mixed and any chance it had at a Picture nod seems to have fallen by the wayside.
Still, it’s a little naive to completely count Moore in Best Actress out and her performance has received solid notices. Yet as mentioned in previous Oscar watch posts, that race is looking very crowded already with Cate Blanchett in Carol, possibly Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (though she could be recognized instead in Supporting), Carey Mulligan in Suffragette, Brie Larson in Room, Lily Tomlin in Grandma, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, and the as yet unforeseen work of Jennifer Lawrence in Joy. In other words, the competition could crowd Moore out and Academy voters may be OK with that considering she won just last year for her work in Still Alice. She remains a possibility, however, and can’t be totally discounted. As for other performers, Michael Shannon has received positive word of mouth but is a long shot for Supporting Actor.
All in all, Toronto essentially dashed the hopes of Freeheld gaining any major traction in the 2015 awards derby.
Continuing on with part two of my impossibly early Oscar predictions for 2015, we move to Best Supporting Actor. As I mentioned in the previous Supporting Actress piece, the predictions that I did at this time of the year in 2014 yielded two out of the five eventual nominees. Same goes for Supporting Actor last year, though it’s worth noting that last year in early September – I mentioned all five eventual nominees in the predicted or other possibilities category.
Unlike Supporting Actress, where Rooney Mara seems to be a shoo in for a nod in Carol, there are no obvious nominees in this category as of yet. One thing seems very possible – Quentin Tarantino has a knack for getting his supporting players attention and that may bode well for either Kurt Russell or Samuel L. Jackson. Right now, I’ll give Russell the edge.
David O. Russell is also known for his performers receiving Academy love and his December release Joy could mean nods for either Bradley Cooper or Robert De Niro. We’ll go with Mr. Cooper at press time.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant could garner plenty of attention and Tom Hardy could benefit from it in this category. It doesn’t hurt that he’s had a terrific year coming off the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road.
The Cannes Film Festival brought forth raves for the indie drama Youth and Harvey Keitel’s work in it while this fall’s Steven Spielberg drama Bridge of Spies seems to have a major supporting role for character actor Mark Rylance.
Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs may mean nods for either Jeff Daniels or Seth Rogen. The Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy has both John Cusack and Paul Dano (depending on who the studio puts in which category). The Catholic Church sex scandal drama Spotlight has Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. Past winner Benicio del Toro is said to be a standout in this September’s Sicario. And on and on.
In other words, lots of possibilities here and we shall see how it shakes out. For now:
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
Steve Carell, Freeheld
John Cusack, Love and Mercy
Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Jude Law, Genius
Ewan McGregor, Miles Ahead
Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis
And that’ll do it for now! Best Actress coming up tomorrow…
You can peruse my Supporting Actress early picks here:
Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher is certainly an example of truth being stranger than fiction and we see it play in bizarre, unsettling, tragic, and fascinating ways in the director’s third feature. His previous two efforts, 2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball, dealt with the issue of competitive nature within us and Foxcatcher does as well. This time around, it’s in a much darker fashion.
The film tells the fact based story of two Olympic gold medalists, Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave Schulz (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with John du Pont (Steve Carell), heir to his family’s chemical mega fortune. Foxcatcher begins in 1987 when the brothers are training for the 1988 Summer Games in Seoul. The early proceedings show that Mark is a bit in his brother’s shadow. He has to remind others that he won the gold. Dave doesn’t seem to have that issue.
Mark’s preparation for Seoul takes a turn when he is contacted by people affiliated with Mr. du Pont, who resides on a sprawling family compound/horse ranch in Pennsylvania. He is summoned to the estate where du Pont expresses his desire to help Mark realize his goals. In the meantime, he will provide a state of the art practice facility. Dave is extended the same offer, but declines. Mark is impressionable and it doesn’t take long for du Pont to establish a strange and often creepy bond with him. Dave watches from afar with growing concern, at least initially.
du Pont’s behavior includes an affinity for guns and a highly inflated opinion of his actual ability to train young men to wrestle. Most write this off as him being an eccentric millionaire. He monograms his clothing with Team Foxcatcher, his hand picked name for his squad of brawlers. He produces documentaries about himself which extol his questionable virtues. John also has serious Mommy issues with the matriarch of the dynasty (Vanessa Redgrave).
Family issues are central to Foxcatcher and it extends to the brothers. Mark and Dave grew up poor and moved around a lot. The concept of home is foreign to them. du Pont is available to provide one for Mark and eventually Dave. The financial stability involved keep them there for longer than it should. We witness Mark go from adoration of his sibling to contempt and du Pont plays a role. We witness Dave go against his better instincts with du Pont and allow the promise of a place to settle override his genuine concerns.
Along the way, we are privy to three powerhouse performances from the leads. Carell has received the lion’s share of publicity and it’s easy to see why. The actor known mostly for his comedic talents is unrecognizable with his heavy makeup job. He oozes awkwardness and insecurity and supreme creepiness. The film is not overly concerned with delving into how du Pont became so unhinged, but we see glimpses and some suggestions as to why. And that’s mostly enough.
Tatum’s work is impressive in its own right and his performance is an accomplishment of body language, from his slightly dumb jock lumbering to a scene where his movements best represent a wounded dog who’s upset his owner. Ruffalo is the heart of the movie and yet even his heart isn’t always in the best place, when he places the aforementioned promise of a comfortable life higher than du Pont’s increasingly scary actions.
Foxcatcher is an absorbing character study of these three individuals just as Miller has done before with Truman Capote and Billy Beane. This is no doubt the bleakest of the lot, but once again the director has picked a fascinating true story and the right actors to realize his telling of it.
We are officially ten days away from Neil Patrick Harris hosting the Oscars and it seems like a perfect time to chime in with an update on what and who I believe will win in the eight major categories. Next weekend – I’ll provide final predictions in all of the races. Here we go:
BEST PICTURE
Of the eight movies nominated here, it now appears only two have a legit shot at becoming 2014’s Best Picture: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman. The momentum still appears to be on the side of Linklater’s 12 years in the making family drama.
Predicted Winner: Boyhood
Runner-Up: Birdman
Other Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
BEST DIRECTOR
Like the Picture race, it’s between Linklater and Inarritu. This practically seems like a coin flip at this point, but I’ll give the Birdman maker the slight edge since he just won the Director’s Guild of America award (often a solid predictor of who wins here).
Other Nominees: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTOR
While Michael Keaton remains the front runner for his Birdman comeback, don’t sleep on the chances of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, especially following his somewhat surprising SAG Awards victory. I’m still clinging to Keaton winning though.
Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Runner-Up: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore’s work in Still Alice is widely expected to nab the celebrated actress her first golden statue. Any other winner here would be a rather big surprise.
Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Runner-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another easy race to predict as J.K. Simmons’ turn as the sadistic music teacher in Whiplash has won essentially all precursors. Only a Birdman sweep could mean Edward Norton is victorious and that’s a long shot.
Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, Birdman
Other Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Like the two previous acting categories, Patricia Arquette’s Boyhood performance has scored at other awards shows and anyone but her winning would be a massive upset.
Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Birdman
Other Nominees Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is one heckuva category but again should come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Like in the Director race, Birdman gets a small edge. Watch out for Budapest as a potential spoiler.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Runner-Up: Boyhood
Other Nominees: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This would appear to be the best chance for The Imitation Game to win a major award, but Theory of Everything may be hot on its heels.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
Runner-Up: The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: American Sniper, Inherent Vice, Whiplash
And that’ll do it. Keep an eye out for final predictions next weekend!
For longtime followers of my blog, you may know that I’m endlessly fascinated by the nowadays seemingly constant shifts taking place on late night comedy TV. This evening, we were informed of yet another seismic shift in the medium.
Some context: when I was very young, there was essentially only one late night talk show in town and it belonged to The King of Late Night, Johnny Carson – who hosted The Tonight Show for 30 years. Competitors such as Joan Rivers and Alan Thicke, among others, tried and failed to take him on. Only Arsenio Hall managed some success against him in the waning years of Johnny’s run.
Of course, for many years, it was the man who followed Carson that was seen as his obvious heir apparent upon retirement: David Letterman, whose innovative Late Night show followed Tonight. When Jay Leno (one of Dave’s favorite guests) began filling in for Johnny as he began to vacation more, the paradigm shifted. It was Leno who would succeed Johnny in 1992 amid much controversy. It prompted Letterman to move to CBS the following year. For two years, Dave would reign supreme as the new King of Late Night until Leno (with an assist from Hugh Grant who appeared immediately following his shocking arrest with a prostitute) became #1 for nearly two decades.
Oh… There’s more! The Letterman departure to CBS as Leno’s competitor left a void at the 12:30 Late Night slot that’d be filled with an unknown SNL writer named Conan O’Brien. And in yet another highly controversial media frenzy some sixteen years later, Leno would reluctantly “retire” and hand Conan the Cadillac that is 11:30 on NBC. It didn’t go as planned. Jay would end up with a 10pm nightly program that failed badly. Conan’s ratings couldn’t match what Leno brought in and NBC let him go with a reported $40 million payout. He would eventually end up at TBS where he remains today and Leno would return to The Tonight Show.
Oh… There’s more! When Conan did first jump to 11:30, it once again left a hole at 12:30am and SNL vet Jimmy Fallon was named. By 2014, Leno would once again depart (for good this time) and Fallon was moved up. In the year since Jimmy has taken over, it’s gone considerably better for him than Conan. Fallon has kept The Tonight Show at #1 over Letterman and ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel.
And of course Letterman announced his retirement that will take place in May after 33 years at Late Night and Late Show. His successor will be Stephen Colbert in September. Colbert, along with Steve Carell, Ed Helms, Rob Corddry, John Oliver and many others, owe their careers to one program and one man…
Jon Stewart. You knew I’d get there eventually, right? Of course that would be the news of the day. The man who’s hosted The Daily Show for 17 years announced he is stepping down this year as host. There is no doubt that Mr. Stewart, like Dave and Johnny before him, has forever changed American comedy and late night. It changed the way people thought about news and received it (especially among the coveted 18-49 audience demographic).
What some younger viewers might not know is The Daily Show existed before Jon Stewart. The first host was former ESPN anchor Craig Kilborn. He left to host The Late Late Show, the talk show airing after Letterman. Kilborn’s eventual departure paved the way for Craig Ferguson, who also announced he’s stepping down this year and that has set up James Corden to be the new host who will follow Letterman successor Colbert.
Most importantly, Kilborn’s Daily Show exit led to Stewart in 1999. You also may not be aware that this wasn’t Stewart’s first talk show. It was his second. His first aired on MTV and then in syndication and was canceled after two seasons. On his final show on that program, he nabbed his biggest guest: his comedy idol. A man named David Letterman.
Conan and Kimmel and Stewart were all Dave disciples, in the same way Letterman was a Johnny disciple. Yet Stewart brought something new to his iteration of “The Daily”. He turned it into must see TV very often. His political satire could shape people’s views on stories and politicians. As mentioned before, it provided his correspondents a platform to big things whether on film or the small screen.
There will be breathless speculation as to who will take over The Daily Show. Had Stewart made the announcement last year, my guess is John Oliver would be the easy choice. After all, he filled in for an extended period of weeks when Stewart took a sabbatical to make his directorial movie debut with Rosewater. Oliver did such a great job as guest host that HBO quickly snatched him for his acclaimed weekly Sunday evening program. He’s likely to stay put. So is Seth Meyers at Late Night, who succeeded Fallon.
My hunch is that Comedy Central will look to their current crop of Daily contributors which includes Jason Jones and Aasif Mandvi. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they go with their current longest tenured correspondent Samantha Bee, giving a much needed late night female face among the two Jimmy’s, Stephen’s, Seth’s, etc…
One thing is nearly certain: while Johnny Carson was not the first host of The Tonight Show and Jon Stewart was not the first Daily Show hosts, these two landmark television programs will always be linked to them, even as the Late Night carousel keeps spinning.
The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?
Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:
BEST PICTURE
As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.
Nominees
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.
Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood
BEST DIRECTOR
Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.
Nominees
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.
Predicted Winner: Linklater
BEST ACTOR
4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.
Predicted Winner: Keaton
BEST ACTRESS
5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.
Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.
Predicted Winner: Moore
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.
Predicted Winner: Simmons
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.
Predicted Winner: Arquette
Best Original Screenplay
Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…
Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay
4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.
Nominees
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.
Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.
Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.
As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild
And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!
We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.
As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!
Best Film (Drama)
Nominees
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game
Best Film (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
PREDICTED WINNER: Moore
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie
PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater
…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!
OK folks! We’ve arrived at part five of my Oscar predictions and they’re coming to you nine days before the actual nominations are released. This will be my second to last round of predictions. The final ones will likely come a week from today. I’m estimating the eight biggest categories and with the exception of one race, things have changed since my preceding round nearly a month ago.
Unlike previous posts I won’t go into great detail. I’ll save that for next week. Here are predictions as they stand currently with a listing of the changes I’ve made over the past four weeks:
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
CHANGES
IN: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel
OUT: Gone Girl, Unbroken, Whiplash
BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
IN: Anderson
OUT: David Fincher, Gone Girl
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
NO CHANGES
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
IN: Aniston
OUT: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
IN: Duvall
OUT: Tom Wilkinson, Selma
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
IN: Dern
OUT: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
BLOGGER’S NOTE: It was announced yesterday that Whiplash will compete in the Adapted Screenplay instead of its previously anticipated Original Screenplay race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
IN: Foxcatcher, Nightcrawler
OUT: Selma, Whiplash
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
IN: Inherent Vice, Whiplash
OUT: Unbroken, Wild
And that’ll do it for now! My final predictions are coming to you next week.
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
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