The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.
Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million
The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.
Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.
It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.
Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. Keeper
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (November 7-9)
It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.
Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.
Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.
The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.
Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.
Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.
Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.
Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.
Paramount hopes audiences are game for The Running Man when it debuts November 14th. The sci-fi action flick casts Glen Powell in a role that Arnold Schwarzenegger played in the 1987 original. Based on a Stephen King novel, costars include Josh Brolin, Colman Domingo, Lee Pace, Jayme Lawson, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, and William H. Macy. Edgar Wright directs. This is the second 2025 adaptation of a dystopian tale written under King’s pseudonym Richard Bachman behind The Long Walk.
Following Predator: Badlands by a week (another Ah-nuld adjacent release), Running hopes to pick up speed based on Powell’s star power and decent early word-of-mouth. The original isn’t exactly considered a classic, but it has a solid cult B-movie reputation. I don’t think this reaches near $40 million like Badlands. Low to mid 20s seems more likely.
The Running Man opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my Now You See Me: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:
Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.
Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).
I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.
Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million
The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.
The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.
As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.
Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.
Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.
Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:
1. Him
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
7. The Senior
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.
The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.
Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.
The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).
Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the box office while Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk and mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues hope for strong showings. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:
The influx of material could cause the top 5 to consist of 80% fresh product. Demon Slayer appears primed for a breakout performance that doubles the best in show previous start of the franchise in 2021. My low to mid 50s estimate should easily give it the top spot.
The Conjuring: Last Rites vastly blew past expectations (more on that below). In its sophomore frame, a slippage in the mid to even high 60s could occur and would be perfectly understandable.
Franchise finale Abbey should debut in range with its 2022 predecessor in the mid to higher teens for a likely third place posting.
Despite impressive reviews, The Long Walk could struggle to each double digits (it doesn’t help that Conjuring is still out there).
Finally, Spinal Tap II might see mid single digits and that may be enough for fifth place.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $64.6 million
2. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
3. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Spinal Tap II: The End Continues
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
Even the rosiest of prognoses didn’t match what The Conjuring: Last Rites managed to accomplish. The ninth overall pic in the franchise and fourth with a Conjuring moniker scared up $84 million and ghosted my measly $58.2 million prediction. Rites surpassed the best opening of the series (The Nun at $53 million) with plenty of room to spare. Warner Bros continued its remarkable 2025 in the horror genre (Sinners, Weapons).
Hamilton, a filmed version of the already iconic play, was second with $10.1 million on its 10th anniversary. That’s ahead of my $8.7 million estimate and a commendable gross considering this has been streaming on Disney+ for five years. This is only a one-week engagement which explains why you won’t find it in the top 5 above.
Weapons was third with $5.2 million, in range with my $5.5 million call. In five weeks, it has amassed $142 million.
Freakier Friday, also in week 5, was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million) for $87 million total. It should fall just under or place just over $100 million.
Caught Stealing rounded out the top five with a hefty 59% decline at $3.1 million. I went a bit higher at $4 million. The two-week take is an underwhelming $14 million.
Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.
Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.
The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Based on the first novel he ever wrote (though it wasn’t released until 1979), dystopian horror tale The Long Walk arrives in theaters September 12th. Francis Lawrence (maker of I Am Legend and every Hunger Games flick except the first one) is behind the camera with JT Mollner (writer/director of last year’s critical favorite Strange Darling) scripting. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Hamill (in his second 2025 King adaptation after The Life of Chuck).
In a year where horror is receiving acclaim that the Academy could notice, Walk is generating high praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with 80 on Metacritic. Seen as an unadaptable novel (which explains how long it took to arrive on the big screen), critics are saying Lawrence/Mollner pull it off.
Unlike Sinners and Weapons, this is not anticipated to be a major box office juggernaut. With Sinners seemingly poised for Academy love and Weapons contending in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay (if we’re being generous), Walk is unlikely to generate its own awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, I found myself more emotionally invested in the concept than the characters. That doesn’t appear to be an accident as we ponder the big themes and equally sized swings taken by the adaptation of Stephen King’s novella. We’re meant to see ourselves in the experiences of the title character during his 39 years and they are great years as we’re told and occasionally shown. There are moments scattered throughout where the heart tugging feels effortless and others where the cosmic machinations emanating from its screenplay feels… something else. Not necessarily forced, but slightly underwhelming in its impact because of our limited time with Tom Hiddleston’s Chuck in his adult years. Ultimately I valued seeing highlights and lowlights of his journey.
The film is told in reverse chronology. It should be noted that a spoiler free review is challenging, but I’ll try my best. Chuck opens in act three of three with middle school teacher Marty (Chiwetel Ejiofor) presiding over a dwindling class size as natural disasters and other happenings are putting the planet on course for a seemingly slow death. His parent-teacher conferences are both sad and humorous and it affords David Dastmalchian with an amusing cameo. Sad and humorous are a fair description for this first/third act as Marty attempts to reconnect with his ex-wife, nurse Felicia (Karen Gillan). Much of the comedy comes from the bizarre sightings of Chuck Krantz (Tom Hiddleston). As the Earth crumbles, the bespectacled accountant appears to be the only constant. He pops up in TV ads and park benches and billboards thanking him for “39 Great Years!” No one seems to recall where they know him from or if they do and no one can explain his sudden omnipresence.
It’s in act two and when we meet the numbers cruncher in the flesh as Hiddleston and then younger versions played by Benjamin Pajak as a preteen and Jacob Tremblay as a near adult. This isn’t really a spoiler as we’re told by the Narrator (a delightfully droll Nick Offerman) that Chuck’s 39 years do not extend to 40. The third act explores an often tragic upbringing raised by Grandpa, or zayde, Albie (Mark Hamill) and kindly Grandma/bubbe Sarah (Mia Sara). From the latter is where Chuck develops a love for many forms of dance. From the former is where he is told to avoid dancing to the beat of his own drum in favor a safer route (like an accounting career). It’s in the middle sequence where grownup Chuck grooves to the rhythm of someone else’s drum and that easily gives us the picture’s strongest moments of pure joy.
Chuck features plenty of recognizable faces from iconic movies. There is no star as even Hiddleston’s title character has limited screen time. Of course, his elders are Luke Skywalker and Sloane from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Both shine as shapers of Chuck’s near four decades. Matthew Lillard and Carl Lumbly pop up as armageddon approaches in the first third while Heather Langenkamp (Nancy from A Nightmare on Elm Street) dispatches advice to young Chuck in the the last.
Once the overall concept is unlocked, it flirts with and sometimes falls victim to becoming anticlimactic. Chuck’s world may not provide a great near two hour viewing recounting his near 40. However, it still manages to pack enough pleasures and pathos that it feels consequential.
In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.
Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.
However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.
Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.
Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.
I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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