As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Swedish veteran Stellan Skarsgård in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the others, they can found here:
He’s a well-respected thespian who finally nabbed a role with big screen awards attention. As film director Gustav Borg, Skarsgård joins costars Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass as nominees. He received the Golden Globe where seven of the past ten winners have matched with Oscar. Additionally, nominations came at Critics Choice and BAFTA.
The Case Against Stellan Skarsgård:
Surprisingly, he did not make the cut at SAG Actor. The last Oscar winner to not show up at SAG was Christoph Waltz for 2012’s Django Unchained. That’s the only time where the Academy’s honoree didn’t contend at SAG. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) has the momentum with prizes at BAFTA and SAG while Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
Skarsgård could pull the upset, but he’s behind Penn for sure. While he might have the best shot among the Value quartet, he’s still a long shot.
My Case Of posts will continue the fifth contender in Best Director – Chloé Zhao for Hamnet…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Sean Penn as the villainous Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the first three thespians in the race, they can be accessed here:
1995 – Actor (Dead Man Walking) – lost to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas; 1999 – Actor (Sweet and Lowdown) – lost to Kevin Spacey for American Beauty; 2001 – Actor (I Am Sam) – lost to Denzel Washington for Training Day; 2003 – Actor (Mystic River) – WON; 2008 – Actor (Milk) – WON
The Case for Sean Penn:
The six-time nominee and two-time winner is peaking at the right time. Penn has taken the previous major precursors via BAFTA and SAG Actor. While he’s been a mainstay at the Oscars, it’s been 17 years between nominations and this is seen as his meatiest role in quite some time. He would entered rarified territory as only the 8th actor to have more than two gold statues joining Katherine Hepburn with four and the following performers with three – Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep.
The Case Against Sean Penn:
As you can see above, it’s no easy task to get a trio of Oscars. He could vote split with his costar Benicio del Toro. The early precursors did not go his way with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) taking Critics Choice and the Globes selecting Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). Unlike some his fellow nominees, he’s not big on campaigning.
The Verdict:
Momentum matters. A month ago, Penn looked like a long shot. Now he’s the favorite and hard to bet against.
My Case Of posts will continue with fourth director for consideration – Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth performer in Best Actress is Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can access them here:
Following her acclaimed performance in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World from Joachim Trier, the Norwegian actress became a major awards player. Their follow-up premiered at Cannes last summer in which she won Best Actress. Nominations at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes have followed.
The Case Against Renate Reinsve:
Simply put – Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. She’s taken home all the aforementioned precursors and appears poised to be the only acting competition sweeper. Along with her Oscar nominated costars Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, the SAG Actor branch completely ignored the Value cast.
The Verdict:
In this Best Actress quintet, Reinsve will be a bridesmaid and not the bride.
My Oscar Prediction posts will continue with the next hopeful in Best Actor – Michael B. Jordan for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Delroy Lindo is our third possibility in Supporting Actor for Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first two, they can be accessed here:
As Delta Slim in Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster, Lindo is a well-respected veteran in a movie that could win Best Picture. There is also a feeling that he was snubbed in 2020 for his lead work in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Supporting Actor is wide open this year with different winners at the Globes (Stellan Skasgård in Sentimental Value), Critics Choice (Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein), and BAFTA (Sean Penn in One Battle After Another).
The Case Against Delroy Lindo:
Notice you don’t see his name as a recipient anywhere. In fact, you won’t because Lindo missed out on nominations at SAG, the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It is extremely rare for someone to nominated (let alone win) without being up at any of those precursors. You have to go back to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock 25 years ago to find the last one. The voters can honor the Sinners cast elsewhere via Michael B. Jordan and especially BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku.
The Verdict:
With the absence of noms everywhere else, logic would dictate that Lindo isn’t a threat to take gold. However, this Supporting Actor derby is unpredictable enough that I wouldn’t completely discount it. The chances increase if Sinners can pry BP away from One Battle.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third filmmaker contending for Best Director, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second write-up among the Supporting Actor five is Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. If you missed my post covering Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another, you can find it here:
The Aussie star of Euphoria and Saltburn (and currently #1 movie Wuthering Heights) entered the awards chat as The Monster in Guillermo del Toro’s passion project. He surprisingly nabbed a trophy at first major precursor Critics Choice and was nominated at the Globes and is awaiting word from BAFTA and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Jacob Elordi:
He lost the Globe to Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. All other nominees in the Academy quintet are veteran thespians and voters might think Elordi’s time could come later.
The Verdict:
At the time of this writing, it is definitely a mystery whether that Critics Choice podium trip was a fluke. It will become more clear if Elordi can manage to take BAFTA or SAG Actor. Both are possible and if takes either or both, his stock on Oscar night goes up.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second director in contention and that’s Ryan Coogler for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass for Sentimental Value. If you missed the first write-up covering her costar Elle Fanning, you can peruse it here:
The Norwegian thespian gets her first Oscar nod along with three of her costars for Joachim Trier’s acclaimed family drama. Precursors nods include the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and a win from the National Board of Review. Value did better than expected on nominations morning and the cast could benefit.
The Case Against Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass:
Her cast mate Stellan Skarsgård appears most likely to benefit in terms of victory chances. Lilleass wasn’t nominated at SAG Actor and only 2 of the 31 previous Academy recipients were ignored by SAG. Vote splitting is probable between her and Fanning. Precursors have gone to Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Globes) and Amy Madigan for Weapons (Critics Choice).
The Verdict:
A BAFTA win could increase the chances of a Lilleass upset, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second man up in Supporting Actor and that’s Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the quintet of Supporting Actor nominees is Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2000: Supporting Actor (Traffic) – WON; 2003: Supporting Actor (21 Grams) – lost to Tim Robbins for Mystic River
The Case for Benicio del Toro:
As sensei Sergio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-nominated pic, del Toro would certainly win if this competition were based on internet memes. Outside of that, his third appearance in this category has been preceded with noms everywhere else including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG Actor and several wins from regional critics groups. If Another takes BP (where it’s the frontrunner), an acting victory seems likely to come with it. del Toro is coming off an impressive 2025 with his work here and as lead in Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme.
The Case Against Benicio del Toro:
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice and Stellan Skasgård (Sentimental Value) got the Globe while we await SAG Actor and BAFTA. He could vote split with his costar Sean Penn. Teyana Taylor, his cast mate contending in Supporting Actress, appears best poised for a Battle acting win.
The Verdict:
Of the four acting derbies, this might be the most unsettled. I still think Benicio needs SAG or BAFTA (that one seems more out of reach) to have a better shot at Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first directing nominee and that’s del Toro’s auteur Paul Thomas Anderson…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value.
Previous Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Elle Fanning:
The 27-year-old has amassed numerous nods for her TV work on The Great, but her appearance in Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama is her first Oscar at bat. She was nominated at Critics Choice and by several regional critics groups. Value also had a slight overperformance with nine mentions from the Academy.
The Case Against Elle Fanning:
She is likely to vote split with her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Fanning did not receive nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Actor, and wasn’t even shortlisted at BAFTA. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) have taken the Globe and Critics Choice, respectively. The best shot at a victory for this cast is in Supporting Actor with Stellan Skarsgård.
The Verdict:
Most prognosticators did not have Fanning in their quintet. I will give myself a pat on the back for predicting her, but I’m under no illusions that she is a threat to win.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the eighth horse in the BP derby and that’s Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:
The Norwegian drama has been on the Academy’s radar since it took home the Grand Prix (the prize for 2nd) at the Cannes Film Festival in May. It scored a better than anticipated nine nods including four of its cast members -Renate Reinsve in lead Actress, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Supporting Actress, and Stellan Skarsgård in Supporting Actor plus Trier’s direction and original screenplay with Eskil Vogt. The other two mentions are for Film Editing and International Feature Film. It also nabbed BP noms at BAFTA, the Globes, and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Sentimental Value:
In addition to no BP victories at the already aired ceremonies, it has fallen short to The Secret Agent at the Globes and Critics Choice in the foreign field. Value also blanked at the SAG Actor awards. Only one Oscar winner (1995’s Braveheart) has been zeroed out by SAG previously.
The Verdict:
The overperformance of nine noms arguably makes it the favorite over Agent for International Feature Film and Skarsgård (fresh off a Globe win) is considered the frontrunner in his race. Though it could be in the top half of the 10 contenders, Value is not a real threat for the trophy.
After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.
There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).
A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.
Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.
Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.
In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.
Best Picture
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 9/10
F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 4/5
Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 4/5
Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.
Best International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 4/5
Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.
Best Animated Feature
Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.
Best Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)
The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.
Best Casting
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.
Best Film Editing
F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
How I Did: 4/5
2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
How I Did: 4/5
Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)
Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.
Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.
Here is how the nominations did shake out:
16 Nominations (!)
Sinners
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Hamnet
4 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt
1 Nomination
The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!
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