Tag: Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.

Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.

Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my The Accountant 2 prediction, click here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Until Dawn prediction, click here:

Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

John Krasinski’s fantastical family flick IF looks to top the box office charts while horror prequel The Strangers: Chapter 1 and the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

IF Box Office Prediction
The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Back to Black Box Office Prediction

IF is a tricky one to call. It has star power in the form of Ryan Reynolds and plenty of familiar faces voicing the various imaginary friends in the cast. On the other hand, this is original IP and it could struggle to break out with more franchise friendly titles for the fam coming our way this season (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4). I’m giving it a mid to high 30s start as it will hope to leg out well over the next several weeks.

The runner-up spot should go to current champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (barring a massive underperformance from IF). The tenth feature overall in the long-running series premiered at highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). Its sophomore dip could be substantial. While 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes fell only 50%, follow-up War for the Planet of the Apes in 2017 tumbled 63%. It didn’t help that War faced direct competition from Dunkirk in its first outing. Then there’s the surprising B Cinemascore grade for Kingdom and that’s low for a blockbuster. Word-of-mouth could be an issue. I have it sliding in the high 50s or low 60s for a low to mid 20s second frame.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 could face the same genre hurdles that other recent titles have including Abigail and The First Omen. My estimate just north of $10 million puts it in third for a muted third place beginning.

The Fall Guy should continue its underwhelming run in fourth with a low to mid 40s ease in weekend #3.

With mostly poor reviews, a mid single digits start for Back to Black would have it rounding out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. IF

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Back to Black

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 10-12)

It was a wonderful weekend for 20th Century Studios as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes proved the franchise is in good working order. Arriving seven years after predecessor War, it topped that film’s gross with $58.4 million. That’s third in the series only to 2014’s Dawn and Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining and ahead of my $55.2 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to second with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.2 million prediction. The total sits at a ho-hum $49 million after ten days as the summer’s first flop will likely not reach nine figures domestically.

Challengers was third with $4.3 million (I said $4.7 million) as its three-week tally is $37 million.

I did not correctly identify the fourth and fifth place finishers. Why? Well… the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace was down a gargantuan 84% to $1.4 million (to bring its take to $486 million since 1999). I was far more generous and thought it would do $4 million. Oops.

That’s nothing compared to my overestimate of the Tyler Perry filmography spoof Not Another Church Movie. I had it in third place with $4.9 million. Instead it was 13th with a whopping…. $391k. Apparently filmgoers will go to Perry’s pics and do not want to see them made fun of.

Fourth place went to Tarot in its second go-round with $3.4 million. That’s actually a fine hold for horror as it has reached $11.9 million.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $2.6 million to bring its numbers to $191 million after seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction
Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.

As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).

There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.

Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

2. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Not Another Church Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (May 3-5)

Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.

The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.

Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.

Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.

Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…