One box office story that hasn’t been covered much for this weekend is the expansion of Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which is steeped in major Oscar buzz. The true story of Boston Globe reporters breaking the Catholic Church priest abuse stories, the pic has received raves from critics (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and seems a shoo in for a Best Picture nomination (it may win).
With a strong ensemble cast that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schrieber, John Slattery, Stanley Tucci, and Billy Crudup, Spotlight expands to 598 screens this weekend. That’s not near the number of theaters of its competitors, but this should have the highest per screen average of any film not featuring Jennifer Lawrence and a bow and arrow.
While it probably won’t reach the top five, this should top $4 million in its expansion and settle in for a healthy run during Academy season.
Spotlight opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
Over the last near four years, The Hunger Games franchise begat the true birth of YA novel adapted pictures that have continued with diverging and maze running. Perhaps more importantly, it gave the masses Jennifer Lawrence who’s gone onto quite an impressive career thanks to this series and David O. Russell with Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and the upcoming Joy. It also gave its studio Lionsgate a serious cash cow and that explains the decision to divide the final installment Mockingjay into two parts. They did so because they knew the cash cow was about to graze and last year’s Part 1 felt incomplete. That picture didn’t feel so much as half a film. Instead it often felt unnecessary and slowly paced with filler where they didn’t need to be. Mockingjay – Part 1 was light on action and often too grim, dark, and plodding for its own good.
Some of those same tenets hold true for Part 2 (the first hour drags a bit),but this experience feels much more satisfying and sends the franchise off with competence. We pick up where we left off with Lawrence’s Katniss fervently marching towards the Capitol to kill President Snow (Donald Sutherland, still relishing his villainous role). There is still a love triangle between the brainwashed Peeta (Josh Hutcherson, whose acting here is better than we’ve seen before) and hunky Gale (Liam Hemsworth), though we correctly sense how it will turn out eventually. And Katniss is still being used by District 13’s President Coin (Julianne Moore) for propaganda purposes as her motives are constantly in question. The goals of Katniss are undeniably noble while we’re not so sure about the President she’s working for.
Part 2 ups the adventure quotient and director Francis Lawrence is serviceable at delivering these sequences. One in an abandoned subway system with some freaky looking creatures is particularly well-constructed and suspenseful. Yet the real suspense lurks with what Katniss will do once reaches her nemesis President Snow and whether he really is the baddest of the bad guys.
The dynamic between Katniss, Peeta, and Gale has been a running theme throughout these movies. A common complaint has been the underwhelming acting of Hutcherson that sort of makes you root for Gale more than you should. It’s not a notion I disagree with. Here, however, Peeta’s struggle with the mind tricks Snow heaped upon him adds a fascinating dimension. In one segment, he tells Katniss “You should cuff me…” and he means in the literal restraint form with zero shades of grey.
As for various performances, Lawrence again shows she was meant for this role and brings an emotional heft that elevates the material. Moore, Sutherland, and Woody Harrelson as returning mentor Haymitch are all pros. Philip Seymour Hoffman is here in limited screen time, which is probably due to his tragic death nearly two years ago. There are a couple of scenes where he should obviously be in it. Elizabeth Banks is given a couple scenes as franchise favorite Effie.
For the most part, Mockingjay – Part 2 is about getting down to the business of Katniss exacting her revenge. And that thirst for revenge only grows during the fairly well-paced proceedings taking place here. The body count piles up. The stakes grow higher and everything feels urgent in a way that it didn’t and really couldn’t in Part 1. Having never read the Suzanne Collins books which these Games are adapted from, I don’t know about the complaints I’ve picked up about a disappointing ending for the series. The actions of Katniss in the third act worked for me and the action displayed here is pretty good stuff. If there’s a quibble to be had, it’s that the first two Hunger Games films had more of a sense of humor and there was fun to be had. The original actually felt rather fresh and 2013’s Catching Fire brought the series to a creative high. It stands as easily as the finest picture of the quartet. The final two are considerably bleaker in tone, but word is that faithfully follows what Collins brought her readers. As I wrote in my review of Part 1, there’s no actual “hunger games” happening anymore in these last two entries. Thankfully, Part 2 concludes The Hunger Games franchise in a mostly sufficient manner.
The final installment of the wildly popular franchise based on Suzane Collins’s novels hits screens next Friday as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opens. Francis Lawrence returns to direct and Jennifer Lawrence is back leading her impressive cast that includes Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Sam Chaflin, Jena Malone, Stanley Tucci, Jeffrey Wright, and Philip Seymour Hoffman (in his final film role). So far, this is getting better reviews than Part 1‘s 65% Rotten Tomatoes score as this stands at 88% currently.
While all entries in this series have made major bucks, it is worth noting that predecessor Mockingjay – Part 1 came in below the first two flicks. Let’s take a trip down box office history lane with this franchise that began in spring 2012:
The Hunger Games
Opening: $152 million with $408 million overall domestic gross
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Opening: $158 million with $424 overall domestic gross
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Opening: $121 million with $337 million overall domestic gross
I find it unlikely that the final tale will outdo the first two, but it could edge out Part 1 simply due to the fact that it’s the last one. It has become commonplace for studios to divide a franchise’s finale installment into two parts. We’ve seen it with Harry Potter and Twilight and Lionsgate did just that here (we’ll see this tactic employed again in the future with the Divergent and Avengers series).
My gut tells me this performs similar to what Part 2 of the last Twilight picture accomplished by making about $3-6 million more that what its predecessor debuted to.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $124.2 million
It’s been a little while, but this evening on the blog – we continue with my ongoing series of Oscar History posts and we’ve arrived at 2009. That year’s Academy Awards are notable for a couple of reasons. First, this was the year where the decision was made to expand the list of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. It’s likely not an accident that this occurred just one year after 2008’s commercial and critical smash The Dark Knight failed to make the five pic cut. This was the Academy’s way of including more commercially successful ventures. After all, there’s a direct correlation between hit pictures being nominated and the ratings of the telecast itself. Secondly, the real battle of nominated entries came down between the efforts of a couple that was married and divorced – James Cameron for his smash hit Avatar (which demolished all box office records) and ex wife Kathryn Bigelow for her war drama The Hurt Locker.
It would be Bigelow who would come out on top as The Hurt Locker would take Best Picture over her ex-husband’s blockbuster. The other eight nominated features: The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air. The success of Hurt Locker would relegate Avatar to winning only the tech categories.
Up would mark the first animated flick nomination (and first and only Pixar one) since 1991’s Beauty and the Beast and it hasn’t happened since. Basterds would mark Quentin Tarantino’s second pic nod after Pulp Fiction fifteen years prior.
As for movies that might have made my personal cut, I advocate for Steven Soderbergh’s underrated and hilarious The Informant! And if the Academy wanted to include high profile pictures, why not consider the acclaimed Star Trek reboot or comedy smash of the year The Hangover? I’m also a big fan of Zack Snyder’s graphic novel adaptation of Watchmen.
Bigelow would go onto make history by becoming the first female Best Director winner in Oscar history over Cameron, Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), and Tarantino. I may have found room for Neill Blomkamp’s impressive work in District 9.
Beloved actor Jeff Bridges would score his first Best Actor win for Crazy Heart, beating out George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), and Jeremy Renner (Hurt Locker). Firth would go onto win the prize the following year for The King’s Speech. Once again, my Informant! love would have meant an inclusion for Matt Damon’s terrific work in it.
Sandra Bullock would receive her first ever nomination and a win for her hit football drama The Blind Side. Other nominees: Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia). Two names I would’ve considered: Alison Lohman’s great scared crapless work in Sam Raimi’s horror tale Drag Me to Hell and Zooey Deschanel in the rom com (500) Days of Summer.
Quentin Tarantino’s knack of finding the perfect actor in the perfect role landed an at the time unknown Christoph Waltz a win in Supporting Actor for Inglourious Basterds. Other nominees were Matt Damon for Invictus, Woody Harrelson for The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, and Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones. As I’ve mentioned in these posts before, the Academy usually ignores comedies and this race would have given them an excellent opportunity to nominate Zach Galifianakis in The Hangover. Also, I may have included Jackie Earle Haley for his work in Watchmen.
Mo’Nique would win Supporting Actress in Precious over previous year’s winner Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick (both nominated for Up in the Air), and Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart). I would have given consideration to either Melanie Laurent or Diane Kruger for their roles in Basterds.
And that’s 2009 for you, my friends! I’ll get to 2010 at same point in the future…
We arrive at yet another entry into the Academy Awards derby from the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals (a theme on the blog this weekend) and it’s Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight. The pic is a journalistic expose on the Catholic Church sex scandals from a few years ago and centers on the Boston Globe reporters who broke the story. After its festival rollout, some critics have compared it to All the President’s Men. High praise indeed.
Spotlight boasts a truly impressive ensemble that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Stanley Tucci and Liev Schreiber. Early reviews suggest it could be a contender in Best Picture, though I didn’t include it in my initial round of predictions from yesterday. It’s certainly one to keep an eye on though when it debuts November 6. It also doesn’t hurt that director McCarthy is well liked in the critical community with indie darlings like The Station Agent and The Visitor to his credit.
As for acting races, most write ups have focused on Michael Keaton and it’s certainly possible he could find himself as a player in Supporting Actor. This may hold especially true considering he had a remarkable comeback role in last year’s Picture winner Birdman. He was nominated for Best Actor, but lost out to Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. The other performers are unlikely to receive much attention.
Once again, as with Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl and Beasts of No Nation, the festival circuit has shined Oscar attention on another picture. As of this weekend, it’s Spotlight.
This Friday, only one new release debuts in the marketplace, but it’s a massive one. Yes, Katniss and company are back in The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 and expect a number of 2014’s records to be broken.
For starters, it needs only to top the $100 million earned by Transformers: Age of Extinction to have the largest opening weekend of the year. That should be no problem whatsoever. 2012’s original Games got off to a $152M start while last year’s sequel Catching Fire took in $158M. Additionally, Mockingjay 1 (the part two franchise finale is out next year) is almost certain to eventually gross higher than 2014’s current box office champ, Guardians of the Galaxy, which has earned $330M. Both of Mockingjay‘s predecessors have earned over $400M domestically.
Jennifer Lawrence returns at Katniss with a large ensemble cast including Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Elizabeth Banks, Woody Harrelson, Jeffrey Wright, Stanley Tucci, and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman. Reviews have been mostly strong, though notices for Catching Fire were more positive.
This third entry appears unlikely to gross under the original’s $152M out of the gate. However, I question whether it manages to top Catching Fire‘s $158M haul. I’ll predict this opens right in the middle of the first two while easily claiming the title of best roll out of the year.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $155.8 million
This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.
Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.
Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.
The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.
Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.
Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million
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