November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Critically acclaimed horror thriller Heretic and holiday family dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever will both attempt to keep Venom: The Last Dance from a third weekend in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Heretic finds Hugh Grant dipping into scary territory and my low double digits estimate puts it in range with the September start of Speak No Evil. That’s likely good for second place.

I’ve got Christmas in third in the high single digits though its chances of over performing exist. I also think it might experience low declines as the holidays approach and get off to a relatively slow start.

My projections on the two openers does indeed leave Venom atop the charts for a third frame assuming it drops in the mid 40s. Holdovers The Wild Robot and Smile 2 should round out the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

2. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

November started off in multiplexes with October product holding steadier than my forecasts. Venom: The Last Dance is the prime example as it declined only 49% in weekend #2 with $25.9 million. I was much lower at $17.3 million. That’s a bit of a surprise considering predecessor Let There Be Carnage plummeted in the mid 60s. Of course, it’s worth noting that Dance opened with nearly $40 million less than Carnage.

The Wild Robot was second with $7.4 million as it managed to rise 9% and blast past my $5 million call. The animated pic has amassed $121 million after six weeks.

Smile 2 was third with $6.7 million and that’s wider than my $5.6 million take. The horror sequel is up to $52 million after three frames.

Oscar hopeful Conclave eased a mere 24% in fourth with $5 million (I said $4.2 million) for $14 million in two outings.

Finally, Robert Zemeckis’s Here, which reunites his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, stumbled with critics and audiences. The fifth place showing netted $4.8 million. My prediction? $4.8 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Heretic Box Office Prediction

A24 is hoping audiences make some noise for Heretic when it debuts November 8th. The horror thriller comes from Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote the blockbuster A Quiet Place and recently directed the megaflop 65. Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East costar as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door.

Critics opened up to Heretic upon its screening at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a certified fresh 95% with Metacritic at 71. Moviegoers have had plenty of scary material to feast on in 2024 and that could limit its potential. I could see a start in the $11.5 million range that Speak No Evil managed in September.

Heretic opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my The Best Christmas Pageant Ever prediction, click here:

October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:

This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.

If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.

Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.

I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.

Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:

1. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

3. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Saturday Night

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

7. Piece by Piece

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

8. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

9. The Apprentice

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (October 4-6)

Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.

The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.

Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.

Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.

Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.

As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 27-29)

DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.

The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.

Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.

Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 27-29 Box Office Predictions

While Hasbro’s Transformers One fell short of expectations this past weekend, DreamWorks Animation looks to bring families out in force with The Wild Robot this Friday. We also have Francis Ford Coppola’s long in the works sci-fi epic Megalopolis premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

I projected a mid 30s start for Transformers and came to regret it (more on that below). I’m estimating the same for The Wild Robot which is generating stronger reviews and comes from a studio whose animated works usually perform well.

As for Megalopolis, it might be a megaflop. Coppola’s passion project premiered at Cannes to plenty of negative reaction. This might do decent business on the coasts, but I don’t expect much interest in between. A mid single digits gross could mean fourth place.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will drop to second after three weeks on top with a percentage dip in the low to mid 40s. Despite an A Cinemascore grade, Transformers will likely suffer with a low to mid 50s decline due to the Robot competition. Speak No Evil should round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Megalopolis

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (September 20-22)

In an upset, moviegoers made Tim Burton’s sequel the champion three times in a row as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice took in $25.9 million. That’s right on target with my $26.7 million forecast as its total has reached $226 million.

Transformers One couldn’t catch on in the runner-up position with $24.6 million. That’s well under my $35.4 million take and it’s another underwhelming result for the franchise behind last year’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.

Speak No Evil was third at $5.7 million, a bit shy of my $6.5 million call. The thriller has grossed $21 million after two weeks in multiplexes.

Halle Berry’s survival thriller was another yawner for Lionsgate in fourth with $4.4 million, on pace with my $4.7 million prediction.

Deadpool & Wolverine rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million). In nine outings, 2024’s second largest domestic earner has amassed $627 million.

Finally, I didn’t do a projection for Demi Moore’s critically hailed The Substance. It opened in sixth with a fairly respectable $3.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Hasbro’s animated Transformers One looks to dislodge Beetlejuice Beetlejuice from its #1 perch and Halle Berry’s horror pic Never Let Go hopes to bring in genre fans this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Transformers should manage to assemble a first place showing in the middle to higher 30s. Expectations aren’t as high for this compared to the live-action action pics, but decent reviews and kid business should help.

Lionsgate has had a string of flops over the past few weeks (The Killer’s Game being the latest) and I expect that to continue with Never Let Go. My mid single digits projection for it should mean a fourth place premiere.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after ruling the charts for the past two weeks, should ease close to 50% for second place. See No Evil may also see a drop in the low to mid 40s for third with Deadpool & Wolverine rounding out the top five in its ninth outing.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $35.4 million

2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million

3. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

4. Never Let Go

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (September 13-15)

It was a lucky Friday the 13th frame for Tim Burton and company as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice held up stronger than I assumed in its sophomore frame. The long in development sequel grossed $51.3 million compared to my $40.9 million take. After ten days, its impressive haul stands at $187 million.

Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy debuted on the lower end of its anticipated range at $11.3 million in second. I was more generous at $14.6 million. With a B+ Cinemascore (solid for its genre), it may hold up fairly well in the weekends to come.

Deadpool & Wolverine was third with $5.2 million, a tad more than my $4.4 million call. After 8 weeks, the MCU juggernaut has earned $621 million.

I incorrectly did not have hot button documentary Am I Racist? in my top five but it performed impressively in fourth with $4.5 million.

Reagan was in the five spot with $2.9 million (I said $3.1 million) for $23 million after three weeks in play.

Finally, the aforementioned The Killer’s Game with Dave Bautista was DOA in sixth with $2.6 million. I gave it slightly more credit with a $3.7 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Never Let Go Box Office Prediction

Never Let Go tries to avoid a recent Lionsgate curse when it opens this Friday. That might be unavoidable for the Alexandre Aja (Crawl) directed horror flick starring Halle Berry. Percy Daggs IV, Anthony B. Jenkins, Matthew Kevin Anderson, Christin Park, and Stephanie Lavigne costar.

The survival tale seems to be flying considerably under the radar. As mentioned, Lionsgate had been experiencing an onslaught of financial underachievers over the last few weeks thanks to Borderlands, The Crow, and The Killer’s Game.

It also won’t help that genre fans have had plenty of material in 2024 and Speak No Evil will be in its sophomore frame. Mid single digits is where I’m going with this.

Never Let Go opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my Transformers One prediction, click here:

Speak No Evil Review

Maybe if you thought long and hard about some of your past vacations, you wouldn’t want to go back and revisit. Perhaps some negative aspects would seem clearer. Best to concentrate on how enjoyable it was while you were there. That’s a bit how I feel about Speak No Evil where a family of three interrupts their mundane London life to visit another family of three in the remote English countryside. I found myself non tongue-tied during its runtime. This is one of those thrillers where you find yourself talking back at the screen. Get out of the house already! You’re almost a teenager – why are you still attached to a stuffed rabbit?? We’ll get to that one.

Let’s start with some official business. Speak No Evil from James Watkins (The Woman in Black) is based on a 2022 Danish pic that I haven’t seen. It’s said to be darker and less audience friendly than this. Comparisons cannot be made from my vantage point. Louise (Mackenzie Davis) and Ben Dalton (Scoot McNairy) are Americans residing in London. We meet them on vacation in Italy along with daughter Agnes (Alix West Lefler). Mom is a little overprotective while Dad is a little gun shy to truly challenge her. The fragility of the Dalton clan seems pronounced at first when compared with Paddy (James McAvoy), younger wife Ciara (Aisling Franciosi), and their mute son Ant (Dan Hough). Paddy is a boisterous and fun loving doctor who entertains his fellow travelers during one of those who cares what hour it is wine filled lunches that becomes dinner that becomes an after hours chat. They get on well enough that the Yankee Londoners agree to visit Paddy and company at their home.

Louise and Ben see it as an opportunity to rekindle a relationship on shaky ground. Maybe some fresh country air will do that. Yet cracks in their plan emerge after they take the long and winding road to their new surroundings. Paddy has some eccentricities that initially are presented as mild annoyances. He force feeds some goose meat to Louise even though she’s already told him she’s a vegetarian. His parenting skills to silent (but always trying to convey something) Ant are questionable. Then again… so are Louise’s in a less sinister way.

Part of the screenplay’s fun is how there’s usually enough logic that you can understand why the Daltons don’t go speeding back to London. After all, their hosts can’t be crazy right? We know they must be or there wouldn’t be a movie to view. The tension building up to certain reveals are the creepiest moments and most of those come in the first half. James McAvoy is responsible for the bulk of them. I didn’t dig M. Night Shyamalan’s Split as much as many others did, but I definitely was wowed by McAvoy’s work. Here again he is chilling.

On the opposite end, the handling of McNairy’s Ben can be fascinating. He’s probably the weakest character of the sextet. Even quiet Ant seems determined to get something done though we’re not sure what it is for awhile. Plenty of genre material portrays the patriarch as the figure of strength. Ben is decidedly not that for most of Speak No Evil and it’s a fairly fresh and often amusing angle. Mackenzie Davis does an admirable job at conveying the realization of the menaces they’re facing.

Contrivances are common to keep the action moving in these thrillers. The plush bunny belonging to Agnes is a prime example. It’s the most memorable use of that non-human character since Nicolas Cage protected one in Con Air. Plot machinations mount as Evil goes along and the third act isn’t as juicy as the first two. Once motivations are known, it’s a mild letdown. However, I never wanted to hop off the B movie ride.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Speak No Evil

Blumhouse’s Speak No Evil has developed some consensus approaching its Friday the 13th release. The thriller from director James Watkins stars James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, and Scoot McNairy.

A remake of a well-regarded 2022 Danish effort by Christian Tafdrup, most reviews say the American version doesn’t match intensity or shock value of the original. Write-ups are still saying it’s effective as it sports an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 63 Metacritic score.

Critics are lauding the work of McAvoy in this genre once again. That’s reminiscent of their praise for his work in 2017’s Split by M. Night Shyamalan. McAvoy managed to generate some awards buzz for that blockbuster. I doubt he’ll get that chatter for Speak. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy and action comedy The Killer’s Game starring Dave Bautista hope to get lucky with audiences this weekend as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice looks to reign supreme for a second frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Evil appears poised for an easy second place start as I have the Blumhouse remake of a 2022 Danish flick in the low teens.

As for The Killer’s Game, I look for it to continue a tepid streak for distributor Lionsgate in the mid single digits. That could mean fourth place with holdovers Deadpool & Wolverine in third and Reagan in fifth.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice impressed in its opening frame (more on that below). That business might be prove to be front loaded. A low to mid 60s sophomore slide is likely and understandable.

Here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $40.9 million

2. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

4. The Killer’s Game

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

5. Reagan

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (September 6-8)

Tim Burton’s long in the making sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice achieved the second best September start in box office history with $111 million. That puts it in between 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 follow-up ($91 million). While it didn’t quite match my $115.7 million prediction, audiences were clearly primed for Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder’s returns to their iconic characters with Jenna Ortega joining the proceedings.

Deadpool & Wolverine was the runner-up with $7 million (I was higher at $9.8 million) for $613 million after seven weeks of slashing 2024 records.

Reagan held up well in third with $4.8 million. My projection? $4.8 million! In two weeks, the biopic has made $18 million.

Alien: Romulus was fourth at $3.9 million (I said $4.5 million) to bring the four-week tally to $97 million.

I incorrectly did not have It Ends with Us in the top five, but it managed fifth with $3.7 million. It has totaled $141 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…