Tag: South by Southwest

Oscar Predictions: Babes

It sounds as if Neon has a potential sleeper on their hands with Babes at the box office and at awards shows. The comedy stars Ilana Glazer of Broad City as a happily single woman who unexpectedly gets pregnant in the directorial debut from Pamela Adlon. Costars include Michelle Buteau, John Carroll Lynch, Hasan Minjaj, Stephan James, and Oliver Platt.

A release date has yet to be finalized after its successful screening at South by Southwest. Reviews call this a raunchy and heartfelt winner and it sports a 100% RT rating.

Comedies in general face a tall task getting attention from the Academy and this should hold true with Babes. Original Screenplay (from Glazer and Josh Rainowitz) might be its only realistic shot. Other ceremonies could offer more possibilities. At the Golden Globes, the performances of Glazer and Buteau as Glazer’s BFF mom helping her navigate impending parenthood could be noticed in the Musical/Comedy derbies. Same goes for Best Musical/Comedy in general. At the Directors Guild competition, Adlon could make it in the First-Time Feature race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Civil War

Alex Garland’s directorial debut Ex Machina was a critically hailed sci-fi effort that earned its maker an Original Screenplay nomination and a Visual Effects win at the 2014 Oscar ceremony. His follow-ups Annihilation (despite solid reviews) and Men (which drew a considerably more mixed reaction) did not generate much awards chatter post release. Garland’s fourth feature Civil War has been unveiled at South by Southwest prior to its April 12th debut. The dystopian thriller stars Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons. This reunites the husband/wife team of Dunst and Plemons after The Power of the Dog.

Several critics are highly impressed with Civil War, which is being called both a love letter to journalists and a tense political action pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88%. I’m not convinced that this will become a BP or directing or original screenplay player, but it’s within the realm of possibility. Tech nods seem more doable, including Sound and perhaps Cinematography.

As for the cast, Dunst and Spaeny are receiving the most attention. Dunst is coming off her first nomination for Dog in 2021 while Spaeny would be vying for her first (she probably came close to getting in for last year’s Priscilla). I would say Civil War needs to get in the BP conversation for either to have a shot and that will remain unclear for some time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Late Night with the Devil

South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.

Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.

That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Fall Guy

Ryan Gosling (fresh off his third Oscar nom for Barbie) and Emily Blunt (just up for her first with Oppenheimer) lead the cast of The Fall Guy, slated for May 3rd. We are a month and a half away from that release, but it had a splashy debut at South by Southwest and the buzz is substantial. David Leitch (the man behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, and Bullet Train) directs with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Hannah Waddingham.

Based on the 1980s action TV series starring Lee Majors, Gosling plays a stunt man once again after portraying the same profession in The Place Beyond the Pines and Drive. Critics are calling it a lovingly crafted and quite funny and romantic homage to the cinematic workers who put themselves in danger for our entertainment. It stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While we wait for the Academy to develop a category honoring stunt performers (like SAG does), The Fall Guy‘s best and perhaps only hope at recognition is in tech races like Sound (feasible) and Visual Effects (maybe more of a reach). Assuming Universal campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, its luck could be better with potential nods in Film, Actor, and Actress. And, yes, its chances for inclusion in the SAG Stunt Ensemble race seems like a no brainer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Monkey Man

Dev Patel’s directorial debut Monkey Man received its first look at South by Southwest prior to an April 5th release. The hardcore action flick is getting some cheers. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, the actor turned filmmaker and co-writer (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) could have a spring sleeper hit. Jordan Peele is among the producers with a supporting cast including Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Vipin Sharma, Sikandar Kher, and Sobhita Dhulipala.

While some reviews hone in on the overall style with shoutouts to the cinematography, Monkey isn’t really the type of material Oscar goes for. The chances of it factoring in any race seems minor. Where it might pop up is at next year’s DGA Awards with Patel in the First-Time Feature category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023: The Year of Lily Gladstone

Prior to 2023, Lily Gladstone was best known for her work in indie filmmaker Kelly Reichardt’s works Certain Women and First Cow. Her collaboration with Martin Scorsese this year could make her a Best Actress recipient. Gladstone is the subject of my final Year Of write-up. If you missed the previous entries, you can peruse them here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer
2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie
2023: The Year of Taylor Swift
2023: The Year of Bradley Cooper

Starring alongside previous Academy Award honorees and nominees Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Jesse Plemons, and Brendan Fraser, it was Gladstone’s performance as Mollie Kyle in Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon that earned the most rapturous reception from critics. She has Globe and Critics Choice pending noms to show for it and victories from numerous groups including the National Board of Review. It is entirely possible we’ll see her costar and last year’s Best Actor winner Fraser calling her name in lead Actress on the Oscar stage.

The love didn’t stop with Moon. The Gotham Awards named Gladstone Best Actress for The Unknown Country, a small-budget road trip drama that originally premiered at South by Southwest back in 2022.

It was indeed a killer 2023 for Gladstone as she earns a slot in my Year Of posts.

Oscar Predictions: Flamin’ Hot

I didn’t do an Oscar Predictions post on Flamin’ Hot when it premiered at South by Southwest back in March or when it began streaming over the summer on Hulu and Disney+. Eva Longoria’s directorial debut tells the true life tale of a man who claimed he invented the title seasoned Cheetos. Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Dennis Haysbert, and Tony Shalhoub star.

Reviews were fairly decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this didn’t strike me as an awards contender at the time or now. That’s with one exception and this brings us to Diane Warren. The songwriter has contributed many tracks to feature films and she has 14 Academy nominations to speak for it. This dates back nearly 40 years starting with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, continuing with gigantic hits like “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon, and including last year’s ceremony with “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Despite the impressive number of noms, Warren has yet to win Original Song (though she did pick up an Honorary Oscar for her work earlier this year).

Flamin’ Hot includes the track “The Fire Inside” performed by Becky G and written by the frequent hopeful. It hasn’t been on my radar screen in my previous predictions. Yet now that a planned documentary about Warren seems to be delayed to 2024 (in which I’m sure she’ll have a contending track), one has to consider this song for inclusion. Don’t be surprised if it materializes in my top ten possibilities in my next update. It’s risky to bet against the penner of the tune. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bottoms

After receiving kudos when it screened at South by Southwest in the spring, Emma Seligman’s Bottom raucous teen comedy Bottoms is up in limited release this weekend. It marks the director’s second feature after her acclaimed 2020 debut Shiva Baby, which made its way to a few critical best of lists. Rachel Sennott, who starred in Baby, headlines here. The supporting cast includes Ayo Edebiri, Havana Rose Liu, Kaia Gerber, Nicholas Galitzine, Dagmara Domińczyk, and former NFL star Marshawn Lynch.

As summer 2023 closes out at the box office, this is currently an unlikely winner for best Rotten Tomatoes score of the season at 99%. A number of reviews are calling it an instant classic of its genre.

For awards prospects, a best case scenario could be an Original Screenplay nod or some love in the Musical/Comedy Film competition at the Globes. Like other classics of its genre, a more likely scenario is no attention from voters of those branches as it seeks to achieve cult status. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction

Adele Kim, best known for cowriting 2018’s smash surprise hit Crazy Rich Asians, makes her directorial debut with Joy Ride on July 7th. The raunchy comedy, which premiered at South by Southwest to impressive reviews, stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, recent Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sabrina Wu, Ronny Chieng, Annie Mumolo, David Denman, and Lori Tan Chinn.

The road trip pic is another hard R laugher in a genre underrepresented in recent years. There’s been a bit of a comeback this summer as it follows No Hard Feelings by two weeks and precedes August’s Strays.

With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this could manage to ride its festival buzz to a debut above $10 million. I’m going say it falls just short.

Joy Ride opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million

For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

For my Sound of Freedom prediction, click here:

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction