Angel Studios is hoping for more holiday luck in the form of Sight over the Memorial Day frame. Terry Chen stars as real-life figure Ming Wang, a Chinese immigrant who became a well-known eye surgeon in the United States. Andrew Wyatt directs. The supporting cast includes Greg Kinnear, Danni Wang, Raymond Ma, Bennet Wang, Jayden Zhang, Wai Ching Ho, and Fionnula Flanagan.
Last summer, the aforementioned distributor scored a major summer surprise via Sound of Freedom. Over the extended six-day July 4th weekend, it debuted to over $40 million with an eventual $184 million domestic total.
Follow-ups have brought in considerably less coin for Angel, which specialize in dramas with faith-based leanings. Last October, After Death premiered with just over $5 million. In December, The Shift came in with a little less than $5 million. Cabrini in March started with a tad over $7 million.
I’m eyeballing a similar prescription for Sight and maybe a little less comparatively. With an extra day of grosses, I think it gets over $5 million though not by much.
Sight opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.
Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.
The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.
Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.
Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:
1. Kung Fu Panda4
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $29.4 million
3. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. Love Lies Bleeding
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (March 8-10)
DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.
Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.
In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.
Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.
Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.
If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.
Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.
That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.
Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $40.7 million
2. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
3. Imaginary
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Cabrini
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 1-3)
I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.
After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.
Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.
Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.
Angel Studios is hoping that audiences of the faith-based variety flock to Cabrini this weekend. The tale of Italian immigrants in late 19th century New York comes from Alejandro Monteverde, who made the unexpected smash hit Sound of Freedom for the aforementioned production company last summer. Cristiana Dell’Anna stars in the title role of the real life eventual saint. Costars include David Morse, Romana Maggiora, Federico Iepali, Virginia Bocelli, Rolando Villazón, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.
Early reviews are of the thumbs up variety with a 96% RT rating. As mentioned, the studio broke out in a major way with Freedom, which grossed an astonishing $184 million. This was assisted by a unique pay it forward marketing strategy. Angel follow-ups haven’t gotten anywhere near those numbers. October’s After Death took in just over $5 million for its start while December’s The Shift premiered to $4.4 million.
I will readily admit that I’m playing a guessing game with Cabrini. I haven’t seen a theater count and my estimate could shift when I do. A Catholic contingent could get this to higher figures than I’m about to project. Faith-based titles in general certainly have the ability to exceed expectations. It could also start out slow and hold well in subsequent weekends with Easter approaching. This might hit $10 million or even post a larger gross I’m not envisioning. $5 million is also possible. I’ll go higher single digits, but keep an eye on this post to see if I change it up or down before Friday.
Angel Studios has had a heavenly 2023 with the massive success of Sound of Freedom over the summer and the recent better than anticipated debut of the documentary After Death. They’ll try to replicate the good tidings with The Shift on December 1st. The low-budget sci-fi pic is directed by Brock Heasley with a cast led by Kristoffer Polaha, Neal McDonough, Elizabeth Tabish, Rose Reid, and Sean Astin.
This is not expected to come anywhere the bounty that Freedom brought in. It earned $40 million over an extended Fourth of July frame on its way to a $184 million domestic haul. The Shift, at the high end of its range, could make a fourth or fifth of that for starters. At the low end, it might premiere to a tenth of that figure.
Fair warning: I’ve underestimated both aforementioned Angel titles this year. If it made close to $10 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. $4-5 million is also feasible.
The Shift opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million
After a record breaking Halloween opening at the box office, Five Nights at Freddy’s will have no trouble dominating the charts again as November arrives. The only wide release is the expansion of biopic Priscilla from Sofia Coppola. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While it played went well in limited release this weekend, Priscilla probably won’t impress as it goes nationwide. I’m projecting it at the lower end of its range for what could be a fourth or fifth place showing (depending on the second weekend drop for faith-based doc After Death).
Freddy’s is ready to easily be 1st again after its massive start (more on that below). It’s a reasonable assumption that its earnings will be quite front loaded. A mid 60s to even high 60s decline wouldn’t be a surprise, but that would still give it a second frame atop the landscape due to scant competition.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon (following a disappointing sophomore performance) should retain their spots in second and third. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Priscilla
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. After Death
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 27-29)
Based on the hugely successful series of video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s obliterated the previous best Halloween weekend of all time. It was held by 2011’s Puss in Boots with $34 million. Freddy’s more than doubled that mark with an astonishing $80 million. That’s good for the third highest horror start in history after It and its sequel. It bested my $68.3 million prediction and that’s all the more impressive considering it premiered simultaneously on Peacock.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, after its own record setting two weeks on top, fell to second with $15.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $14.2 million take as it’s up to $150 million domestically.
Killers of the Flower Moon, despite great reviews and Oscar buzz, fell a troubling 60% in its second outing with $9.3 million. I assumed it would hold up much better at $13.4 million. The subpar ten-day tally (especially considering a $200 million budget) is $40 million.
I mistakenly left After Death out of top five. The documentary from Angel Studios (the company behind the unexpected summer smash Sound of Freedom) was fourth with $5 million.
The Exorcist: Believer rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.5 million) for $59 million in four weeks.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was sixth with $2.3 million (I went with $2.9 million) for five week earnings of $59 million as well.
Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:
Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.
The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.
This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.
Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.
Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $60.4 million
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million
4. Meg 2: The Trench
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
5. Haunted Mansion
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
Box Office Results (July 28-30)
As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.
Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.
The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.
Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.
Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.
Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.
After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:
I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.
Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.
For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.
Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.
Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.
While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.
And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $82.6 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Haunted Mansion
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
4. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
Box Office Results (July 21-23)
Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.
Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.
Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.
Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.
And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.
Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.
I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.
Blogger’s Update (07/19): Rising predictions as Barbie is elevated to $160.8M and Oppenheimer to $65.3M
In one of the most anticipated box office frames in recent memory, two awards hopefuls hoping to score massive grosses are off and running. It’s been deemed the “Barbenheimer” weekend across social media outlets as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The range of possibility for Barbie keeps rising as it appears to have captured the zeitgeist. All ages are expected to attend with a particularly gigantic female crowd and that puts my estimate at over $125 million. That would give it the second biggest three-day haul of any 2023 title behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
While Oppenheimer won’t reach Barbie territory, Mr. Nolan is one of the few directors whose name can open a picture and I expect that to apply with this likely Oscar hopeful. I believe it can manage a rock solid second place showing north of $50 million (the pricier IMAX showings should provide an assist).
After a smaller than anticipated debut (more on that below), Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could fall victim to the shiny newcomers. I have it dropping over 50%. I do expect it will level off nicely in August and eventually post numbers similar to predecessor Fallout from 2018.
Sound of Freedom landed a jaw dropping second weekend figure when it rose 39%. That’s something we simply don’t see in the summer months (and hardly ever in any season). Truth be told, I have no clue what this anomaly will post in its third frame. I’ll guesstimate a 20-25% decline.
Elemental seems poised for a minimal dip compared to fellow holdovers Insidious: The Red Door and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and that might keep it in fifth position.
Here’s how I envision that top 5 shaking out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $160.8 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $65.3 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million
4. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $21 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (July 14-16)
Tom Cruise’s seventh adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt came in under projections and unable to set franchise records as many figured it would. That includes this blogger. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One made $54.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $78.4 million when factoring in the five-day tally since it opened on Wednesday. That’s considerably below my respective estimates – $72.7 million and $102.3 million. It played more like the sequel to series predecessor Fallout from 2018 and less like Cruise’s immediate follow-up to the phenomenon that was last summer’s Top Gun: Maverick. The earnings left it under Fallout‘s franchise best three-day marker of $61 million.
In the runner-up slot, Sound of Freedom astonished everyone with its near 40% jump to $27.2 million in its sophomore outing. That’s, ahem, more than my $12.1 million prediction as the Angel Studios action thriller is up to $85 million since its July 4th beginning. No one saw these kind of financial fireworks and it could hit $200 million when all is said and done.
Insidious: The Red Door went from 1st to 3rd with an understandable 61% plummet to $13 million. The horror sequel actually held up sturdier than my $11.4 million estimate and the two-week total is $58 million.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was fourth in weekend 3 with $12.2 million (I was close at $12.7 million). The subpar tally is $145 million.
Finally, Elemental rounded out the top five with a scant 9% decrease at $9 million compared to my $7.9 million prediction. It’s now at a respectable $125 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… may all your Barbenheimer dreams come true…
With backing from upstart Angel Studios and a budget below $15 million, action thriller Sound of Freedom has unquestionably become the summer’s sleeper hit. When it was released on July 4th, it came in under the radar screens of many prognosticators (including this one). The marketing campaign was clever with a pay it forward angle allowing viewers to purchase tickets afterwards for their family and friends. Combine that with an emphasis on appealing to conservative and faith-based crowds and the Jim Caviezel vehicle took off in a way few anticipated. After its second weekend in release, the gross stands at over $85 million stateside. It actually increased its box office haul in weekend #2 by over 35%. That doesn’t happen often.
Moviegoers are liking what they see. The Cinemascore grade is a rare A+ and the Rotten Tomatoes score for the masses is 100%. As for the official reviews, the RT meter is a favorable though far from overwhelming 72%.
Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have thought to do an awards write-up on Freedom. Yet I suspect the film’s target audience will push for its inclusion to Academy members in Best Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay. It is extremely unlikely to materialize, but expect to see lots of social media chatter advocating for it in the early part of 2024. If Caviezel’s mega-grossing The Passion of the Christ nearly 20 years ago couldn’t get on Academy’s radar, this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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