Drew Hancock’s mix of horror, sci-fi and comedy Companion (out tomorrow) is drawing far stronger reactions that most January releases manage. Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid star with Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend supporting.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 76, Warner Bros hopes to have a sleeper on its hands. Thatcher is turning into a Scream Queen with The Boogeyman and Heretic to her credit. The latter also drew thumbs up notices and probably came close to earning Hugh Grant a Best Actor nod.
Yet as an any Oscar follower knows, horror is a tough genre for performers to generate awards chatter. That should hold true in this case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:
A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.
As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.
Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Companion
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (January 24-26)
Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.
Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.
One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.
While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.
Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.
Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.
Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.
Horror pic Companion looks to earn its budget back quickly when it debuts January 31st. From writer/director Drew Hancock, Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid headline with a supporting cast including Lukas Gage, Megan Suri, Harvey Guillén, and Rupert Friend.
Buzz among genre fans is decent with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic. With a reported price of tag of only $10 million, this should be a profitable venture for Warner Bros. I could see this performing similarly to last fall’s Heretic out of the gate. It also featured burgeoning scream queen Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of) and took in $11 million for its start. I’ll say Companion is right in that range.
Companion opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million
A24 is hoping audiences make some noise for Heretic when it debuts November 8th. The horror thriller comes from Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote the blockbuster A Quiet Place and recently directed the megaflop 65. Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East costar as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door.
Critics opened up to Heretic upon its screening at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a certified fresh 95% with Metacritic at 71. Moviegoers have had plenty of scary material to feast on in 2024 and that could limit its potential. I could see a start in the $11.5 million range that Speak No Evil managed in September.
Heretic opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
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A24 has premiered Heretic at the Toronto Film Festival before it hits multiplexes on November 15th. The psychological horror pic casts Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door. Scott Beck and Bryan Woods co-direct. They are best known for penning the wildly successful A Quiet Place in 2018. On the flip side, they helmed and scripted Adam Driver’s dino adventure 65 last year. It was a box office and critical failure.
Early reaction from Canada indicates that Heretic mostly succeeds. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89 with Metacritic at 67. Critics are certainly directing their applause to Grant in his creepy role. Despite four Golden Globe nominations for feature films (all in Musical/Comedy and he won for 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral), the Academy has yet to mention his name. That won’t change here as this genre rarely gets noticed by the voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
20th Century Studios is hoping plenty of viewers will be creeped out by The Boogeyman on June 2nd. The PG-13 horror pic is based on a half century old short story by Stephen King with Rob Savage directing. Cast members include Sophie Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of), Chris Messina, Vivien Lyra Blair, and David Dastmalchian.
Budgeted at just over $40 million, this was originally slated for a streaming premiere on Hulu. Encouraging test screenings changed the plan and now it’s being unveiled in approximately 3000 venues.
This genre has seen its share of successes as of late. There are two comps from 2022 that seem appropriate. The Black Phone was a summer release with some similar themes and based on a novel by King’s son Joe Hill. It started off with $23.6 million. Last fall’s Smile is similar in the sense that it was supposed to roll out on Paramount+ and the pattern was altered due to its positive audience scores. A $22.6 million debut was the result.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64%. While under the 83% of Phone and 79% from Smile, that’s just fine to keep the buzz decent. I can’t find a compelling reason why this wouldn’t hit the mid to high teens or low 20s as well.
The Boogeyman opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million
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