Christopher Robin Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down a tad from $34 million to $29.6 million

Disney’s Christopher Robin hopes to make a pot of money when it’s released next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG brings back Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Piglet, and other notable creatures that originated from the 1926 novel. Ewan McGregor plays an adult Christopher with Hayley Atwell as his wife. Jim Cummings, Brad Garrett, Toby Jones, Nick Mohammed, Peter Capaldi, and Sophie Okonedo provide voiceover work. Marc Forster directs. I’m guessing this is more in tone with his 2003 pic Finding Neverland and not Quantum of Solace and World War Z.

This is not to be confused with last year’s Goodbye Christopher Robin with Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. That biopic about Pooh’s author went nowhere at the box office.

That shouldn’t be the case here. The Mouse Factory is certainly astute at marketing their product and the familiarity with Winnie and friends won’t hurt. It may even succeed at tapping into adult moviegoers hungry for a nostalgic fix. Depending on how high Mission: ImpossibleFallout flies this coming weekend, a low to possibly mid 30s gross from Robin could put it in contention for the top spot. That seems reasonable for where this begins.

Christopher Robin opening weekend prediction: $29.6 million

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

The Spy Who Dumped Me Box Office Prediction

For my The Darkest Minds prediction, click here:

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: The Promise

Twelve years ago, director Terry George’s Hotel Rwanda earned several Oscar nominations, including Actor (Don Cheadle), Supporting Actress (Sophie Okonedo), and Adapted Screenplay. George’s follow-up, 2007’s Reservation Road with Joaquin Phoenix, was a hoped for awards contender that faded away.

His latest effort is The Promise, which focuses on the Armenian genocide and stars Oscar Isaac and Christian Bale. Due to the pedigree involved, it was eyed as potential Academy bait for this season.

The Promise has screened at the Toronto Film Festival to a host of middling reviews and it appears to be a casualty of so-so buzz. The festival season always anoints some big contenders and dilutes others to non-factor status. This appears to be the case here and for Oscar followers, I wouldn’t look for The Promise to grant you any potential nominations in the future.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue as further hopefuls screen up north and elsewhere…