Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:
A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.
As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.
Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Companion
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (January 24-26)
Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.
Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.
One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.
While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.
Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.
Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.
Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.
Mark Wahlberg looks to guide Flight Risk to #1 this weekend and Angel Studios premieres their latest drama Brave the Dark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The doldrums of January should continue at multiplexes with Flight Risk seeking action fans to get onboard. Directed by his Daddy’s Home 2 and Father Stu costar Mel Gibson, I have Wahlberg’s latest in the low double digits. That should be enough for the top spot.
After returning to first place by a nose, Mufasa: The Lion King should slip to second with One of Them Days in third after a better than anticipated runner-up showing (more on that below).
The fourth slot could be close between Brave the Dark and Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 6th frame. Wolf Man had a disappointing rollout and could ease to sixth with a decline in the mid 50s or so.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 6:
1. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Brave the Dark
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (January 17-19)
In the weakest MLK weekend in nearly a quarter century, Mufasa: The Lion King managed to climb back into the winners circle with $12 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s ahead of my $9.5 million call and it gives the Disney property $206 million after five weeks.
Buddy comedy One of Them Days starring Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of solid reviews to second place and $11.8 million, easily overshadowing my $7.8 million projection. This is the first 2025 title to exceed expectations.
The same cannot be said for Wolf Man. Blumhouse’s horror reboot received plenty of subpar critical notices and audiences turned away. While I had it pegged for 1st at $16.6 million, it was third with only $10.8 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $8.6 million compared to my $6.6 million estimate for a five-week total of $216 million.
Last weekend’s champ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera fell to fifth with $6.5 million. The 56% drop was steeper than I figured as I had it at $8.2 million. The ten-day take is $26 million.
Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.
As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (January 10-12)
Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.
Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.
Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.
Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.
Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:
The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.
That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.
As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (January 3-5)
The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.
Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.
Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.
Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.
Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.
2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.
The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million
6. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (December 27-29)
In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.
Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.
Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.
Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.
The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.
Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.
Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.
In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.
Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.
Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.
I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.
As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $26 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
8. Homestead
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Babygirl
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. The Fire Inside
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 20-22)
Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.
Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.
After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.
Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.
Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.
Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.
Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.
After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.
I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.
And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $77.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $51.3 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 13-15)
November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.
Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.
Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.
Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.
Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.
In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.
Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.
I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.
Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million
For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:
Paramount seeks mega millions at the multiplex as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 arrives December 20th. Based on the hugely successful video games series from Sega, Jeff Fowler is in the director’s chair just as he was for the first two. Ben Schwartz returns to voice the title character with Jim Carrey back as the live-action main antagonist. Other faces behind the mic include Colleen O’Shaughnessey, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves while James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, and Shemar Moore are among the in front of camera participants.
Over President’s Day weekend in 2020, the first Sonic took in $70 million over the four-day holiday. It ended up with $149 million as its earnings were disrupted by the pandemic that followed shortly after. In April of 2022, the sequel made $72 million for its start and $190 million stateside.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging suggesting this is the strongest of the trio. Despite direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King, this should be crowned box office ruler of the pre-Christmas frame. I believe this continues the upward trajectory of the franchise with a high 70s sprint to the number one spot.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening weekend prediction: $77.6 million
For my Mufasa: The Lion King prediction, click here:
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