Tag: SNL 1975

97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 5th Edition

Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.

One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.

I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.

The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.

Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.

I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)

20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)

21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)

24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

All We Imagine as Light

I Saw the TV Glow

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frida

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)

8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)

9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

2 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Hard Truths

SNL 1975

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Franz Rogowski, Bird

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez