Tag: Slumdog Millionaire

NBR Delivers for Pizza

The National Board of Review bestowed their honors today for their finest of 2021 and they delivered it to Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. The coming-of-age dramedy took Best Film and Director. The awards certainly solidify its status as a major contender in the Picture race at the Oscars. In the 21st century, only 3 of the 21 winners (2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, last year’s Da 5 Bloods) did not manage to make the Academy’s cut. On the flipside, the victorious picture here usually doesn’t win. In this century it’s happened thrice (2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book). So if we’re going by recent history, Pizza should get nominated but probably won’t take the gold.

This voting branch also names nine other movies in their Best Of rundown. Over the past five years, the number of NBR selections compared to Oscar BP contestants ranges between 4-7. In 2016, it hit the high mark at 7. There were six in 2017 and 2019, five in 2020, and just four in 2018. The other nine films in 2021 are Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Last Duel, Nightmare Alley, Red Rocket, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story. From that list, I would say only Duel and Rocket seem like major longshots to get attention from the Academy. All others are feasible.

The biggest omission from NBR’s list is absolutely Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which I’ve had ranked at #2 in my BP standings for awhile. The solace for Dog is that two recent BPs (2017’s The Shape of Water, 2019’s Parasite) didn’t make the NBR ten. Other pics that missed NBR: Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, CODA, House of Gucci, Mass, Spencer, and Tick Tick… Boom!

As for the actors – Will Smith (the Academy frontrunner) took Best Actor for his King Richard while costar Aunjanue Ellis won Supporting Actress. Both are widely expected to play in the Oscar race and either or both could win.

NBR did not choose Academy favorite Kristen Stewart for Spencer and opted for Rachel Zegler in West Side Story (her debut role). I had Zegler placed sixth yesterday in the crowded Actress derby, but she could be on her way to making the final five cut.

The wide open Supporting Actor derby favored Ciaran Hinds for Belfast. I am completely unsure what the Academy does in this race. This could forward a narrative that Hinds is more likely to receive Oscar attention than his costar Jamie Dornan (though they could both get in).

Screenplay races provided a couple of surprises. Pizza would have been the logical choice for Original, but NBR instead chose Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. In Adapted, Joel Coen was selected for The Tragedy of Macbeth (which also took Cinematography). Most pundits (including myself) have Power of the Dog as the winner, but the category opened up on this platform since it missed the ten.

Lastly, the Animated, Documentary, and Foreign Language races all featured movies that could prevent Flee from taking any of the three prizes at the Oscars: Encanto, Summer of Soul, and A Hero. 

My blog posts on the state of the 2021 Oscar race will continue…

Belfast Takes Toronto

It’s a wrap for the Toronto Film Festival as prognosticators awaited the naming of the People’s Choice Award. Why? It has become one of the most reliable indicators for a movie nabbing a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.

As in – 12 of the latest 13 victors have done so. Five have gone onto win the big prize: 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2018’s Green Book, and last year’s Nomadland. That’s one heckuva track record.

When Kenneth Branagh’s black and white coming-of-age drama Belfast premiered at Telluride and reached Toronto, it became somewhat of a surprise awards contender. Yet coming into today, it was not an unexpected development for it to take the People’s trophy.

Belfast was listed at #4 in my BP possibilities last Sunday. I can guarantee it will rank higher when I update my projections tomorrow. Simply put, Belfast can be written in pen with your ten nominees in the BP derby.

Toronto also has runners-up. They were the Canadian drama Scarborough (which shouldn’t factor into Oscar chatter) and Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog (which certainly will). Campion already took directing honors at Cannes for Dog and the Toronto appreciation solidifies her latest as a major player. Don’t be shocked if Belfast and Dog are listed at 1-2 tomorrow and perhaps not in that order.

Bottom line: Belfast has been moving up the charts and what occurred this evening keeps it moving in the right direction.

The NBR Likes Spike

The National Board of Review bestowed their end of year honors today and the unpredictable group showed some love for Netflix… just not in the expected way. The NBR named Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods as Best Film along with Lee taking their top filmmaking prize. Bloods, which premiered on Netflix this summer, has been seen as a prospect whose Best Picture chances are questionable. In my rankings, it has risen over recent weeks all the way up to #5.

As for its chances to win, one could legitimately argue the NBR win means it probably won’t (and it probably won’t). In the 21st century, only 4 of the 20 NBR victors took Best Picture at the big show and only one in the past decade (2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book).

The NBR also names 10 of their other favorite pics and they are: First Cow, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Sound of Metal. The major surprise here is easily Netflix’s The Midnight Sky from George Clooney. It received very mixed reviews and is not anticipated to play with the Academy except for tech races. The other story here is the omission of three legit Netflix contenders at the Oscars: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In particular, Chicago is seen as the main competitor to Nomadland for BP winner. That said, only 6 of the 11 NBR pics last year nabbed Oscar attention. Two other notable exclusions from the Board are The Father and One Night in Miami. 

In the acting races, Riz Ahmed took Best Actor for Sound of Metal. He’s looked at as a likely Academy contender. Similar to the Picture discussion, only 1 NBR recipient here (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) achieved Oscar glory. Carey Mulligan named Best Actress for Promising Young Woman. The Oscar/NBR connection is slightly better as three of the past 10 trophy takers had good fortune with the Academy. The Sound of Metal love continued in Supporting Actor with Paul Raci winning. Like Actress, it’s a 3 out of 10 match in the 2010s. Youn Yuh-jung is NBR’s Supporting Actress choice for Minari. Only 1 of the last 10 victors for the Board won the Oscar (Regina King in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk). Minari also took Original Screenplay with News of the World winning Adapted. Soul, the front runner for the Oscar, was named Best Animated Feature.

Bottom line: the NBR can certainly increase exposure for hopefuls, but it’s certainly not a barometer for who wins at the Oscars. Nevertheless it’s a nice day for a Netflix feature that I currently have behind three others from the streamer that weren’t named here.

Toronto: The People Choose Nomadland

While it was a slimmed down version of it, The Toronto Film Festival just concluded their proceedings. A similar storyline from up north follows activity from the Venice Film Festival as the People Choice’s Award has been bestowed to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland. This follows the Frances McDormand vehicle taking the Golden Lion in Italy.

There is a long history of People’s Choice recipients getting Oscar attention, especially in recent years. 11 of the past 12 winners went onto nab a Best Picture nomination. Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book ended up as the victors.

The runner-up for the award is Regina King’s One Night in Miami. There’s also many examples of second or third place pictures becoming Academy players. Recently, that includes last year’s winner Parasite as well as Argo and Spotlight. Third place finisher, the Canadian drama Beans, is not anticipated to be an Oscar contender.

Back to Nomadland. This is the first movie to ever take the Golden Lion and People’s Choice Award. It solidifies an already strong hopeful for the big prize next April. Obviously, there’s much to be seen like David Fincher’s Mank and Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 to name just two. Yet there’s no question that Nomadland is already in the upper echelon of contenders. Additionally, Miami continued to prove that it could be among the Picture nominees.

Oscars 2019: The Case of 1917

My next Case of post for this year’s Best Picture nominees brings us to 1917. If you missed my other posts thus far, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/15/oscars-2019-the-case-of-the-irishman/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/17/oscars-2019-the-case-of-jojo-rabbit/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-joker/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-little-women/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/19/oscars-2019-the-case-of-marriage-story/

Let’s break it down:

The Case for 1917

It’s become significant. 1917 might be the strongest example of the nine nominees for perfect timing. The World War I epic from director Sam Mendes came to the attention of awards voters just as it was opening to better than expected box office and sterling reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89%. Mendes is a known quantity whose American Beauty won Best Picture (and Director) twenty years ago. The precursor love has been impressive with a Golden Globes victory for Best Drama and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) top prize. 13 out of the last 19 PGA winners went on to win Best Picture. The ten Academy nominations is tied for second along with The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 

The Case Against 1917

If it wins Best Picture, it would be the first to do so without any acting nomination since 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire (SAG ignored it as well). Additionally, it would be the extremely rare recipient to win without an Editing nod. A case could be made that the Parasite fans are more rabid.

The Verdict

Despite missing some recognition in key races, there is no doubt that 1917 could absolutely take the biggest race. It could even be called the soft front runner.

Up next in my Case of posts… Once Upon a Time in Hollywood!

Jojo Takes Toronto

Buckle up Oscar prognosticators because we are in for a heckuva awards season over the next few months!

One week after Joker took the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and increased its Oscar chances for Best Picture, Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit has emerged victorious in the People’s Choice Award in Toronto.

A very solid argument can be made that this particular designation is even more key in determining an eventual BP nod. Why? The odds are certainly in its favor. 10 out of the last 11 winners have received a nod in the big race come Oscar time. Four of them – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave and last year’s Green Book – ended up winning BP.

What makes the Jojo victory surprising is the mixed critical reaction it’s garnered. The buzz for this award was centered on titles like Parasite (which was a runner-up), Marriage Story (another runner-up), and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Conventional wisdom in the last few days has been that Jojo is an on the bubble BP contender at best. The Toronto audience love shows that its admirers are passionate. And that might be enough to overcome the naysayers.

There is no doubt that this is exactly the kind of prize Jojo needed to keep its Oscar viability alive. And now Jojo and Joker have more in common than their alphabetical proximity. They’re contenders.

My Jojo Rabbit review can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/10/jojo-rabbit-movie-review/

Yesterday Box Office Prediction

Oscar winning director Danny Boyle, who clearly enjoys playing in multiple genres, tries his hand at a musical comedy next weekend with Yesterday. The high concept pic puts forth the theory that only one aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel) rememberers The Beatles and cashes in on the world’s memory loss. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran.

Mr. Boyle, as mentioned, has a varied filmography that includes Trainspotting and its sequel, 28 Days Later and its follow-up, Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire, and Steve Jobs. When Yesterday premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, its so-so reception killed any potential awards chatter. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68%.

While there’s legions of Fab Four fans out there, I don’t see this turning into a summer sleeper. I believe this will struggle to reach $10 million.

Yesterday opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million

For my Annabelle Comes Home prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/18/annabelle-comes-home-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Yesterday

Premiering at the Tribeca Film Festival over the weekend, the comedic fantasy Yesterday comes with plenty of behind the scenes players with awards credentials. The high concept story imagines a world where the songs of The Beatles have all been forgotten, except by a young aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel). It’s his duty to re-educate the populace about the Fab Four. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran (playing himself).

The aforementioned pedigree starts at the top. Director Danny Boyle has had one of the most eclectic filmographies in memory. His works include a Best Picture winner (2008’s Slumdog Millionaire) and a nominee two years later (127 Hours). They also include cult favorites such as Trainspotting, the acclaimed zombie tales 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later, and sci-fi thriller Sunshine. There’s also Steve Jobs, which never materialized as the awards contender that prognosticators thought it could be.

Additionally, the screenplay comes from Richard Curtis. He received an Oscar nod 25 years ago for Four Weddings and a Funeral. Other written works of note include Notting Hill, Bridget Jones’s Diary, and Love Actually.

As you can see, it’s pretty clear why Yesterday could be looked at as an Oscar player today due to the talent involved. Yet after its festival debut ahead of its June release, reviews are telling a different story. Some are positive, but others are decidedly not. Some critics are breaking out their best Beatles puns with one stating it never quite comes together.

Bottom line: we’ll see if Yesterday can manage to be a profitable crowd pleaser, but don’t expect this to be a factor come with nominations down the line. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Best Picture: A Look Back

A few weeks ago, I posted look backs at major categories at the Oscars from 1990 to the present. I’ve covered all four acting races and if you missed it, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/04/best-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/31/best-actress-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/25/best-supporting-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/

In each post, I review what I’d classify as the three least surprising winners, as well as the three biggest upsets. And I select what I believe are the strongest and weakest overall fields.

Today on the blog, we arrive at the Big Daddy – Best Picture. It’s important to remember that hindsight doesn’t come into play here. For instance, Forrest Gump won the top prize in 1994. Since then, many believe fellow nominees Pulp Fiction or The Shawshank Redemption should have won. Yet the Gump victory was not an upset at the time. Same goes for 1990 when Dances with Wolves bested GoodFellas.

Let’s begin with a reminder of each winner since 1990:

1990 – Dances with Wolves

1991 – The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Unforgiven

1993 – Schindler’s List

1994 – Forrest Gump

1995 – Braveheart

1996 – The English Patient

1997 – Titanic

1998 – Shakespeare in Love

1999 – American Beauty

2000 – Gladiator

2001 – A Beautiful Mind

2002 – Chicago

2003 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

2004 – Million Dollar Baby

2005 – Crash

2006 – The Departed

2007 – No Country for Old Men

2008 – Slumdog Millionaire

2009 – The Hurt Locker

2010 – The King’s Speech

2011 – The Artist

2012 – Argo

2013 – 12 Years a Slave

2014 – Birdman

2015 – Spotlight

2016 – Moonlight

2017 – The Shape of Water

We start with my three least surprising winners:

3. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)

Peter Jackson’s final entry in the acclaimed trilogy seemed due for a win after the first two installments were nominated, but lost to A Beautiful Mind and Chicago. This was as much a recognition for the entire franchise and by 2003, it was obvious the Academy would move in that direction.

2. Titanic (1997)

James Cameron’s epic was plagued with rumors of a troubled shoot and the possibility seemed real that it could be a costly flop. The opposite occurred as Titanic became the highest grossing motion picture of all time upon its release. It seemed clear that Oscar love would follow.

1. Schindler’s List (1993)

Capping an amazing year which saw Steven Spielberg direct Jurassic Park over the summer, his Holocaust feature Schindler’s List became the undeniable front-runner at its end of year release. Winning all significant precursors, this was a shoo-in selection.

Now to the upsets. In my view, there were four very real ones and I had to leave one out. That would be 1995 when Braveheart emerged victorious over the favored Apollo 13 and Sense and Sensibility. Yet there’s 3 others that I feel top it.

3. Moonlight (2016)

La La Land appeared ready to pick up the gold after its filmmaker Damien Chazelle and lead actress Emma Stone had already won. And it looked like the script was being followed when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway actually announced the musical as Best Picture. Perhaps Oscar’s largest controversy followed as the wrong envelope was given and the Barry Jenkins effort Moonlight had actually won. Correct envelopes or not, the Moonlight victory was still unexpected given the La La momentum.

2. Shakespeare in Love (1998)

All eyes were on Spielberg’s World War II epic Saving Private Ryan to win as Spielberg had already picked up his second statue for directing. Shakespeare rewrote that script and few saw it coming.

1. Crash (2005)

Here is perhaps the most surprising BP winner in history. Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain was the strong favorite when the Paul Haggis race relations drama took it. Even presenter Jack Nicholson looked shocked when he read the envelope.

And now the fields. That’s a bit tough because just under a decade ago, the Academy switched from five finite nominees to anywhere between five and ten (nine being the most common). For weakest, I’m going with 2011 when there were 9. While there’s some quality picks like The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, and The Tree of Life – I feel even some of them might have missed the cut in stronger years. And I think that certainly applies to Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, and War Horse.

For strongest, I will go with the aforementioned 1994. Pulp Fiction and Shawshank are indeed two of the most impressive cinematic contributions in recent times. Winner Gump and other nominees Quiz Show and Four Weddings and a Funeral filled out the slate.

And that does it, folks! Hope you enjoyed my look back at Best Picture in modern times.

The Long and Winding Bond

It’s amazing to think that The Beatles released their first single in 1962. This was also the first year that a Bond picture came out with Dr. No. Both entities are still extraordinarily relevant. Famously, Sean Connery’s Bond dissed the Fab Four in 1964’s Goldfinger. 

007 fans got some welcome news this week as Cary Fukunaga was announced as the director of the 25th (and as yet untitled) official James Bond film. By the time it comes out, Mr. Fukunaga will be the first American filmmaker to make a Bond pic in its 58 year history.

He brings an exciting resume to the fold. In addition to a filmography that includes varied directorial efforts like Sin Nombre, Jane Eyre, and Beasts of No Nation, his screenwriting credits include last year’s smash It and TV’s The Alienist. His work behind the camera for television also includes the critically lauded first season of HBO’s True Detective and Netflix’s Maniac with Emma Stone and Jonah Hill (which premieres today).

The pick was a surprise and it wasn’t just due to his U.S. heritage. The producers behind Bond had recently gone with a certain type… awards friendly directors branching out to the super spy series. After Martin Campbell successfully kicked off the Daniel Craig era (just as he did for Pierce Brosnan in Goldeneye), Marc Forster (maker of Monster’s Ball and Finding Neverland) did the disappointing Quantum of Solace. Then it was Academy Award winning Sam Mendes behind Skyfall and Spectre. 

When Danny Boyle was announced as director for Bond 25, it seemed to fit the mold. He’s an Oscar winner for Slumdog Millionaire. He’s also directed some other genre fare (including Trainspotting and 28 Days Later) that made him a fairly exciting pick. Yet it somehow seemed a little safe. After creative differences caused his exit, I figured someone like Joe Wright (who last directed Darkest Hour) could be the replacement.

Fukunaga is an intriguing selection and I’m curious to see how he handles what is very likely to be Craig’s final appearance as 007. And this brings us to Mr. Craig’s longevity. Sean Connery made six movies in the official canon (1983’s Never Say Never Again isn’t considered part of it). George Lazenby did the one-off On Her Majesty’s Secret Service. Roger Moore is the leader with seven. Timothy Dalton had two. Pierce Brosnan made four.

This will be Craig’s fifth 007 turn. Surprisingly, he will have actually portrayed the MI6 agent the longest by the time #25 is released in February 2020. His 14 year reign will eclipse the 12 years that Moore played him.

Attention will soon turn to the next Bond. If I had to guess, I figure the seventh actor to play him will debut onscreen in November 2022. There’s been rumors of Idris Elba taking over the role. Expect plenty of speculation over the next couple of years. By that time, the Bond franchise will be 60 years old. Like The Beatles music, it will never die and the long and winding road of the franchise continues to interest us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Au_QW5MJNI