Tag: Sketch

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction
Weapons Box Office Prediction
Sketch Box Office Prediction

Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).

Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.

As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).

Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $32.5 million

2. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

5. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).

Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.

The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.

Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.

Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sketch Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios flies out of their comfort zone and hope to draw up surprising box office numbers for Sketch when it opens on Wednesday, August 6th. Marking the directorial debut of Seth Worley, the family friendly fantasy stars Tony Hale, D’Arcy Carden, Bianca Belle, Kue Lawrence, and Kalon Cox.

Centered around a kids book come to life, Sketch was initially screened at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. Distribution rights were unexpectedly snatched up by Angel, best known for Sound of Freedom and various faith-based features. Reviews stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic.

I would be more confident that Angel had another sleeper on their hands if not for their more recent track history. In the past couple of years, the studio’s filmography has yielded mostly low to mid single digit starts. Perhaps children and their parents will show up in bigger numbers that I’m envisioning. Mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million more when counting Wednesday and Thursday is my hunch.

Sketch opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Freakier Friday prediction, click here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction

For my Weapons prediction, click here:

Weapons Box Office Prediction