Tag: Sinners

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Winner Predictions

It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.

The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.

Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.

I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.

WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.

WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.

WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go with my BP pick for this one.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:

7 Wins

Sinners

4 Wins

One Battle After Another

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final director for consideration is Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Previous Directing Nominations:

2020: Nomadland (WON)

The Case for Chloé Zhao:

For the tearjerking historical drama, she could make history by becoming the first female to win this twice (only two others have taken the gold). Hamnet is the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. Zhao was nominated everywhere that matters, however…

The Case Against Chloé Zhao:

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has taken all notable precursors – Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the highly predictive DGA. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) has emerged as the competition if Sinners manages a mild BP upset.

The Verdict:

Zhao is not going to achieve filmmaking Oscar #2 though she’s likely to have directed another Best Actress winner via Jessie Buckley with Frances McDormand in Nomadland being the first.

And that concludes for Case Of write-ups for the 98th Academy Awards! FINAL predictions on the winners will be up on the blog in short order…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Teyana Taylor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed the previous posts in this race, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Teyana Taylor:

The multi-faceted entertainer received raves as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in the potential BP winner. Taylor has been nominated in all key precursors and was victorious at the Golden Globes. That race has matched the Oscars in Supporting Actress for seven out of the past ten years. She joins costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn in vying for attention. While her screen time is limited, Taylor’s presence is felt throughout the film.

The Case Against Teyana Taylor:

Any momentum has been stalled since the Globes. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and SAG Actor while Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is the BAFTA recipient. Sean Penn has arguably emerged as the thespian most likely to take gold for PTA’s latest.

The Verdict:

Supporting Actress has no clear frontrunner. If Battle is your BP and Director victor, that increases the chances for Taylor to make a podium trip. There’s also no doubt that Madigan and Mosaku have strong cases.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The Best Actor derby’s final entrant is Wagner Moura in Kieber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent. If you missed my posts covering the other leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Wagner Moura:

For the Brazilian political thriller, Moura took home the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. That particular race has matched Oscar 11 out of the last 13 years. It helps that the Academy has a larger international contingent than some of the other awards bodies. The Narcos star also got the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival and was nominated at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Wagner Moura:

No nods at BAFTA or SAG Actor. For SAG Actor (which began in 1994), there has never been an Oscar winner in this lead race that wasn’t nominated there. At BAFTA, you have to go back to 2013 and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club).

The Verdict:

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is the Globe winner in a Musical or Comedy while Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) picked up momentum at SAG Actor. The case for Moura is somewhat compelling but that SAG Actor stat in particular is tough to ignore. A victory is not impossible, but it would be an upset and a fairly bold pick.

My Case Of posts will continue with the last Supporting Actress to consider and that’s Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth director for consideration is Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Joachim Trier:

The Dutch auteur’s family drama exceeded expectations on nominations morning with nine including another at bat for his Original Screenplay with Eskil Vogt. BAFTA and Golden Globe nods preceded the Oscar mention.

The Case Against Joachim Trier:

Trier didn’t make the cut at Critics Choice and, most importantly, Academy bellwether DGA. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has swept the season thus far with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) seen as the only threat.

The Verdict:

Trier might have a slightly stronger shot for his cowriting (though Sinners is looking likely there). A directing victory isn’t happening.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final entrant in Best Actress – Emma Stone in Bugonia…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Wunmi Mosaku for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed the previous three write-ups in this race, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Wunmi Mosaku:

With a showcase role as Hoodoo practitioner Annie in the most nominated Oscar movie of all time (16), Mosaku’s stock in the race shot through the roof with her BAFTA victory. Seven out of the last 10 winners at BAFTA have also picked up the Academy Award. If Sinners takes Best Picture, it stands to reason that an acting nominee will come along for the ride. She was additionally nominated at Critics Choice and the Actor Awards.

The Case Against Wunmi Mosaku:

BAFTA is Mosaku’s only major precursor podium trip. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and most notably SAG Actor where 15 out of the last 16 winners have matched with Oscar. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) took the Globe where Mosaku wasn’t even nominated. The Academy can also honor Actor Award recipient Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor or Delroy Lindo in Supporting Actor as the Sinners cast member prize.

The Verdict:

Madigan, Mosaku, and Taylor all have decently compelling arguments for the gold statue and I’ll be going back and forth between them until final prediction time.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth performer in Supporting Actor – Sean Penn for One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our fourth entry in the Best Actor derby is Michael B. Jordan playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. If you missed my posts covering the first three leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Michael B. Jordan:

Last night’s Actor Awards where Jordan scored a minor upset victory after not winning previous precursors. Starring in one of two pics with a legit shot at Best Picture, Jordan’s win from the SAG branch comes at a crucial time when Academy members are actively voting. He was nominated everywhere else including at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It doesn’t hurt that Sinners scored a record setting 16 noms in total.

The Case Against Michael B. Jordan:

He came up short to Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at Critics Choice and lost to Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) at the Golden Globes. Both performers are very much still in the mix and major threats to take the prize. The voters have two other chances to honor the Sinners cast via Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo in their respective supporting fields.

The Verdict:

We don’t know if Jordan’s Actor award is the knockout blow he needed. There’s little question that it upped his chances considerably.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jordan’s costar Wunmi Mosaku for Supporting Actress…

32nd Actor Awards Reaction

Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.

It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.

On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).

Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.

Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.

In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.

From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.

Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!

The Producers Pick Their Battle

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) followed the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA and bestowed their best picture honors to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another last night. It occurred during a weekend where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has two shots to interrupt Battle‘s momentum. The second comes tonight at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG) where Sinners has a stronger chance to win the top Ensemble prize.

Even if it does, Battle‘s road to Oscar glory could be undeniable at this point with victories at the aforementioned precursors. A reminder that PGA and the Academy’s BP have matched five times in a row. I correctly called the biggest category and did the same in the animated race with KPop Demon Hunters. That Netflix phenomenon has also landed trophies at earlier ceremonies including the Globes and Critics Choice. The only place it didn’t was BAFTA where it wasn’t eligible and Zootopia 2 emerged. Yet that Disney sequel will likely be #2 to KPop in Academy tabulations.

The only surprise at PGA came in documentary where My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s exploration of her relationship with mother Jayne Mansfield, was the winner. I went with another Netflix hit The Perfect Neighbor. Jayne is not among the doc quintet at the Oscars. Neighbor, seen as the Academy favorite, definitely looks vulnerable and I wouldn’t discount BAFTA recipient Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Alabama Solution.

Keep an eye on the blog for my recap of the Actor Awards later tonight!

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third director for discussion is Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Josh Safdie:

We went into 2025 wondering which Safdie brother would get the Oscar attention. Brother Benny put out The Smashing Machine in the fall and it generated only a Makeup and Hairstyling nod. Josh’s Marty Supreme nabbed nine mentions including Best Picture. For his direction, precursors noms have come at DGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

The Case Against Josh Safdie:

Paul Thomas Anderson has taken all 3 of those precursors and Ryan Coogler is generally seen as the runner-up. Safdie missed the cut at the Golden Globes.

The Verdict:

Safdie’s first solo work in 17 years could see Timothée Chalamet crowned as Best Actor. That is Supreme‘s best and likely only shot at gold.

My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth entrant in Best Actress – Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value…