Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction

Arriving 15 years after the acclaimed TV series that have now spawned three feature films, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is out September 12th. Simon Curtis, who directed 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, returns with franchise creator Julian Fellowes scripting. Returning cast members from the small and big screen include Hugh Bonneville, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Raquel Cassidy, Paul Copley, Brendan Coyle, Michelle Dockery, Paul Giamatti, Elizabeth McGovern, Dominic West, and Penelope Wilton. Newcomers to the proceedings are Joely Richardson, Alessandro Nivola, Simon Russell Beale, and Arty Froushan.

Fans of the series were anxious to go Downton in 2019 when the first movie premiered four years after the show went off air. The domestic opening was $31 million with a $96 million eventual gross. In 2022, the figures for New Era dwindled to a $16 million start and $44 million overall.

Grand could potentially benefit from its Finale moniker, but I’m not counting on it. I think it’ll open in range with its predecessor and maybe a touch higher.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimestu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:

For my The Long Walk prediction, click here:

For my Spinal Tap II: The End Continues prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Firebrand

Alicia Vikander won a Supporting Actress trophy for 2015’s The Danish Girl and she looks for her first lead nod as Catherine Parr, the sixth spouse of Jude Law’s Henry VIII in Firebrand. The period drama comes from Brazilian filmmaker Karim Aïnouz with a supporting cast including Sam Riley, Eddie Marsan, Simon Russell Beale, and Erin Doherty.

Buzz coming from its screening at Cannes is of the mixed variety and that’s evidenced by the 50% Rotten Tomatoes score. Even the recommendatory write-ups aren’t exactly glowing. Law is getting the best ink. However, his third nod (after 1999’s The Talented Mr. Ripley in supporting and 2003’s Cold Mountain in lead) is highly unlikely to come to fruition as well as any hope for Vikander. I suppose a Costume Design nod could occur, but Firebrand should be put out of contention by the time nominations are out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

After premiering at the Berlin Film Festival to solid reviews, crime drama The Outfit hits approximately 1200 screens on March 18th. Graham Moore, Oscar winner for penning the screenplay for The Imitation Game, makes his directorial debut. The cast is led by Mark Rylance with Zoey Deutch, Dylan O’Brien, Johnny Flynn, and Simon Russell Beale in the supporting cast.

While critical reaction is pleasing (92% on Rotten Tomatoes), the lack of star power and fairly low theater count makes me skeptical that this breaks through to domestic crowds.

I don’t believe this will average even $1,000 per location. If it fits in the $800-$900 range, it may manage to clear $1 million. I’m not even confident about that, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt.

The Outfit opening weekend prediction: $1 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction