Tag: Shelter

February 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Don’t count on a super weekend at the box office as horror sequel The Strangers – Chapter 3 and Kevin James headlined dramedy Solo Mio compete with the dog days of the season and the Super Bowl. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction
Solo Mio Box Office Prediction

I don’t see either title toppling Send Help in its second weekend. The Sam Raimi pic had a better than expected start (more on that below) and should see a drop in the low to mid 50s.

In third position, I have Solo edging Strangers in a close race for (non) bragging rights. That said, either could over or underperform.

After another better than anticipated debut, Melania should see a smaller sophomore decline than Iron Lung. That’s with a caveat that the doc about the First Lady might be more front-loaded than my estimate.

Here’s how I see the high five shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

3. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. The Strangers – Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Predictions (January 30-February 1)

As much of the nation dug out from a winter snowstorm, more of them headed to theaters than I figured. Three of the four newcomers easily surpassed my forecasts. Send Help, capitalizing on solid reviews, was tops with $19.1 million compared to my $13.5 million prediction. The B+ Cinemascore is promising for its genre though I still think it falls around 50% this coming weekend.

Gamer based Iron Lung was right behind in second with $18.1 million, blowing past my measly $8 million projection. This is widely anticipated to make the bulk of its cash right away. It is still a terrific gross given the reported $3 million price tag.

Melania also exceeded its range with $7.1 million as the political documentary played best between the coasts in third. I went lower at $4.2 million.

Holdovers held up well with Zootopia 2 actually gaining 12% over the previous weekend with $5.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top 6. The ten-week tally is $409 million.

Avatar: Fire and Ash rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $4.9 million). After seven weeks, it has amassed $386 million.

Jason Statham action thriller Shelter was not found by many fans in sixth with $5.5 million compared to my $6.9 million take.

Finally, sci-fi courtroom saga Mercy fell 58% and from 1st to 7th with $4.5 million, in line with my $4.7 million guesstimate. The two-week total is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 30-February 1 Box Office Predictions

Three new features could fill the top 3 slots to close out January and begin February. We have Sam Raimi’s horror thriller Send Help, video game based sci-fi pic Iron Lung, and Jason Statham’s latest action effort Shelter all seeking viewers. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Send Help Box Office Prediction
Iron Lung Box Office Prediction
Shelter Box Office Prediction

All of them have the potential to exceed my expectations, but I’m giving Send Help (with mostly impressive reviews) the edge with a gross in the low teens.

As for Lung and Shelter, I have them in a close race for the #2 position and both falling under $10 million. I’ll note that Lung‘s gamer fans and Statham’s previous grosses could suggest I’m underestimating.

Some might say for the same for Melania. Brett Ratner’s documentary about the First Lady is a question mark. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll say $4.2 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.

After an unimpressive start, I look for Mercy to lose over half its audience with Avatar: Fire and Ash perhaps placing and Mercy in fifth. Here’s how I see it all shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

2. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Shelter

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mercy

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

6. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 23-25)

Bad weather, Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos contributed to a dismal weekend as Mercy with Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson did manage to become 2026’s first feature to hit #1. The poorly reviewed AI courtroom saga made $10.8 million compared to my $9.3 million prediction. Expect it to fade quickly.

Avatar: Fire and Ash, after five weeks in first, dropped to second with $6.4 million. I’ll note now that all holdovers experienced larger drops than I assumed. I had the James Cameron threequel at $9.8 million. The total is $377 million

Zootopia 2 was third with $5.3 million, under my $6.8 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $401 million after nine weeks.

The Housemaid was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $6.2 million) for a six-week tally of $115 million.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple plummeted a massive 73% in its sophomore outing with $3.4 million. I was more generous at $5.5 million. At only $20 million in two weeks, it’s a dud despite impressive critical reaction.

Finally, Return to Silent Hill (another video game based offering) debuted in seventh with $3.2 million. It actually managed to exceed my $2.2 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Shelter Box Office Prediction

Black Bear Pictures looks for action fans seek Shelter when it opens on January 30th. Jason Statham headlines with Ric Roman Waugh (putting out his second 2026 release following Greenland 2: Migration) directing. Costars include Bodhi Rae Breathnach, Bill Nighy, Naomi Ackie, and Daniel Mays.

With its leading man playing (you guessed it) a former assassin, Shelter would love to match the beginning grosses of his predecessors The Beekeeper ($16 million) and A Working Man ($15 million). That could be a tall order as competitors Send Help and Iron Lung could siphon away potential viewers.

This could certainly hit $10 million, but I’m going more mid to high single digits.

Shelter opening weekend prediction: $6.9 million

For my Send Help prediction, click here:

Send Help Box Office Prediction

For my Iron Lung prediction, click here:

Iron Lung Box Office Prediction