Oscar Predictions: The Woman King

Viola Davis is the most nominated actress in history with four to her credit and one victory for 2016’s Fences. In The Woman King, the EOT recipient (missing that Grammy!) is in action heroine mode in this historical epic set in 19th century West Africa. Gina Prince-Bythewood directs with a supporting cast including Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.

Prior to its September 16th premiere, King has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and there’s not a negative review to be found. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a clean 100%. Per usual, plenty of praise is going to Davis and it’s certainly possible she could join the five-timers club. I don’t believe that’s automatic as competition could be as fierce as the warrior she portrays.

A lot of King‘s feasibility for Oscar noms could come down to whether this hits at the box office. That remains to be seen. If so, we could see Davis in lead and either Mbedu or Lynch in supporting (both are being talked up for their contributions). I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Best Picture to be a realistic nod. Tech nods are doable regardless like Costume Design and Production Design. It’s also just as possible that this is a solid genre flick that won’t catch the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Woman King Box Office Prediction

Viola Davis headlines the 19th century set African action epic The Woman King on September 16th. It comes from director Gina Prince-Bythewood, who recently helmed the Charlize Theron Netflix flick The Old Guard. Based on a story co-written by actress Maria Bello, the supporting cast includes Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.

With a reported midsize budget of roughly $50 million, King premieres at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. That’s where buzz will begin to circulate and that could help or hinder its domestic box office prospects. With the barren landscape of new material out there, this should easily premiere in first place. However, I’m skeptical this reaches the higher end of its range ($20 million). A lower teens start seems more feasible unless the chatter picks up considerably.

The Woman King opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my See How They Run prediction, click here:

See How They Run Box Office Prediction

For my Pearl prediction, click here:

Pearl Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Bruised

Twenty years ago, Halle Berry made history as the first (and still only) African-American performer to win Best Actress at the Oscars for Monster’s Ball. It remains her only nomination from the Academy. On November 24 via Netflix, Berry stars in and makes her directorial debut with the sports drama Bruised. She plays a former MMA fighter who decides to step back in the ring. Costars include Shamier Anderson, Adan Canto, Sheila Atim, and Stephen McKinley Henderson.

Bruised held a screening this weekend at AFI Fest after a rough cut was shown last year at Toronto. Early reviews are of the so-so variety and any thoughts of it garnering nods behind Berry are a moot point. The question is: could Berry enter the Oscar ring again?

It would appear the answer is no. The word-of-mouth is simply not strong enough for her to have a puncher’s chance in an Actress race where several contenders will be duking it out. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…