2020 Oscar Predictions: January 4th Edition

My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.

In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.

You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. Minari (PR: 5)

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

11. News of the World (PR: 9)

12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

13. Soul (PR: 13)

14. First Cow (PR: 15)

15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)

8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)

10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)

10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)

9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)

9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

4. Minari (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soul (PR: 5)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)

10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. The Father (PR: 2)

3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. First Cow (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mauritanian

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)

8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Connected

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. Time (PR: 2)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

4. The Dissident (PR: 4)

5. Boys State (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)

8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)

9. Collective (PR: 8)

10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)

4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)

5. A Sun (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

7. Collective (PR: 5)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)

9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

10. Notturno (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 5)

7. Minari (PR: 6)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

7. News of the World (PR: 6)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. The Father (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

10. Tenet (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 6)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

8. Mulan (PR: 7)

9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emma (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 4)

4. Minari (PR: 5)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)

8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)

10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Free” from The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

3. Mulan (PR: 2)

4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)

5. Emma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 9)

8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)

2. Tenet (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. Soul (PR: 7)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Prom (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Da 5 Bloods

Mulan

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)

7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)

8. Greyhound (PR: 9)

9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mank

And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:

11 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods

4 Nominations

Minari, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: December 20th Edition

The pre Christmas Oscar estimates are in! While my nine predicted Best Picture nominees remains the same (as they have for weeks), pay attention to Sound of Metal rising as it now ranks 10th and just on the outside looking in. Additionally, supporting players Paul Raci and Olivia Cooke are also looking like serious possibilities in those categories even if they’re not (yet) in the final five.

In Supporting Actor, Chadwick Boseman is back in (over Bill Murray in On the Rocks) as I’m feeling more confident of a double nomination for the late performer.

The fifth spot in Best Actress continues to fluctuate and this week we have Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in that position over Michelle Pfeiffer’s work in French Exit.

Best Actor brings the first mention of Mads Mikkelsen’s role in Another Round at slot #8 with Ben Affleck (The Way Back) out of the top 10.

Adapted Screenplay sees its first look at First Cow in the projected cut and that takes out News of the World.

You can read all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions for the calendar year up next weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Mank (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

5. The Father (PR: 7)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

7. Minari (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Sound of Metal (PR: 14)

11. Soul (PR: 11)

12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)

14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)

8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 10)

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)

4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)

8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 6)

9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)

10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

7. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

10. On the Rocks (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Palm Springs

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. First Cow (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 5)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Demonslayer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Connected

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. Time (PR: 3)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)

4. The Dissident (PR: 2)

5. Boys State (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crip Camp (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 8)

8. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

76 Days

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

5. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)

7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)

8. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Collective (PR: 7)

10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Charlatan

Atlantis

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. Minari (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. The United vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 7)

7. The Prom (PR: 8)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

9. Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Nomadland (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 5)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

9. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tenet

Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

4. Mank (PR: 6)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

7. Mulan (PR: 7)

8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Pinocchio (PR: 8)

10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emma

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

3. Soul (PR: 2)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minari (PR: 8)

7. Tenet (PR: 7)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)

7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: 8)

8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Dropped Out:

“Free” from The One and Only Ivan

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Mulan (PR: 3)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 8)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. The Prom (PR: 10)

10. Emma (PR: 6)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)

2. Tenet (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 1)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

7. Soul (PR: 5)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Greyhound

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)

5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 6)

7. Mank (PR: 7)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Greyhound (PR: 9)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

News of the World

4 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Soul

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

2020 Oscar Predictions: December 12th Edition

The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.

My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.

There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.

And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. Soul (PR: 11)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)

14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Prom (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)

8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, Cherry

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)

7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 4)

5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Supernova

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)

8. First Cow (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Connected (PR: 8)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)

9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Lupin III: The First

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. The Dissident (PR: 5)

3. Time (PR: 2)

4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

5. Boys State (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)

7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)

8. Collective (PR: 8)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

10. 76 Days (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 8)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)

9. Charlatan (PR: 9)

10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Minari (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 4)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

5. Mulan (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 8)

8. The Prom (PR: 7)

9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Tenet (PR: 9)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 3)

7. Mulan (PR: 8)

8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)

9. Emma (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 8)

8. Minari (PR: 10)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)

7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)

8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)

9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Myself” from The High Note

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 4)

4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)

8. News of the World (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. The Prom (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)

3. Tenet (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 5)

9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 2)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)

3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 5)

7. Mank (PR: 9)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Greyhound (PR: 7)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:

11 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, News of the World, Nomadland

5 Nominations

One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

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