Inventor Wallace and his canine pal Gromit are no strangers to the Academy Awards. Two of their tales (1994’s Wallace & Gromit: The Wrong Trousers and 1996’s A Close Shave) won the Oscar for Best Animated Film while 2010’s A Matter of Loaf and Death was nominated. 2005’sfeature-length The Curse of the Were-Rabbit took home gold for Animated Feature, beating out Corpse Bride and Howl’s Moving Castle.
Nearly 20 years after the previous long form Wallace pic, Vengeance Most Fowl premiered at AFI Fest and will stream on Netflix beginning January 3rd. A limited December theatrical bow makes it Academy eligible. Early reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic. Nick Park (the legendary animator who created the W + G flicks in addition to Chicken Run and Shaun the Sheep) and Merlin Crossingham co-direct. Voiceover work comes from Ben Whitehead, Peter Kay, Reece Shearsmith, and Lauren Patel.
I’ve had this ranked fourth or fifth in my Animated Feature rankings for months and don’t see that changing after the initial reaction. I would put it behind The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, and Memoir of a Snail in terms of victory possibility. While it’s no guarantee it makes the final cut, the past history indicates its chances are quite strong. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The final animated feature of summer 2017 arrives next weekend when Leap! debuts in theaters. It will likely earn the least of them all. The tale of an orphan trying to become a ballerina has already opened in other parts of the world under the title Ballerina. It debuted in parts of Europe last December and in Canada this past February with a $57 million global tally.
Featuring the voices of Elle Fanning, Nat Wolff, Kate McKinnon, Carly Rae Jepsen, and Mel Brooks, the $30 million budgeted pic stands at a decent 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its stateside premiere comes in late August where studios aren’t exactly expecting heavy grosses. It may manage to be the biggest debut of the weekend (against All Saints, Birth of the Dragon, and Good Time). That’s not saying much.
Family audiences have seen plenty of animated tales this summer from Despicable Me 3 to Cars 3 to The Emoji Movie to Captain Underpants to The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which opened poorly just last weekend. With little ones returning to school, Leap! should have a tough road attracting eyeballs. A decent comp could be the Shaun the Sheep Movie from two summers ago, which managed only $4 million in its August premiere. That’s right about where I have this one.
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.
So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Room (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (+1)
Carol (-2)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Inside Out (-2)
14. Sicario (+4)
15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Trumbo (+2)
18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
19. The Danish Girl (+1)
20. Son of Saul (-5)
21. Creed (-4)
DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
The Good Dinosaur (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Minions
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Brooklyn (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. Cinderella (-1)
8. MacBeth (+3)
9. The Revenant (-1)
10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Carol (+1)
8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)
9. Son of Saul (-2)
DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Brooklyn (+1)
Cinderella (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Suffragette (+3)
8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. MacBeth (-2)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (+5)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Spotlight (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Jobs (-1)
7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Room (+4)
9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Sicario (-4)
11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Carol
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Black Mass (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
Other Possibilities:
4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)
5. Concussion (-1)
6. Mr. Holmes (-1)
7. Legend (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Martian (+2)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Sicario (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (+1)
The Martian (-1)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)
9. Everest (-1)
DROPPED OFF: The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (No Change)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (+1)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.
These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:
9 Nominations
Mad Max Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol, The Revenant
6 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, The Martian
5 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl
4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Ex Machina, Inside Out
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth
That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…
Four days before Oscar nominations are revealed, Hollywood will throw their annual party and awards ceremony known as the Golden Globes, put on by the Hollywood Foreign Press (whoever they are). The always entertaining Ricky Gervais is back to host and the show honors 2015’s best in movies and television. I won’t bother with the TV stuff (just because I haven’t followed it anywhere close to what I do with film). As you may know, the Globes divide the picture and lead actor races in two: Drama and Musical/Comedy. This has been a source of some controversy recently with titles like The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle being questionably placed into Comedy. The ante was upped this year when Ridley Scott’s The Martian made that category. It has laughs to be sure, but really?
I’ll go through each race and predict the winners (and potential runner-up) and will update the blog either Sunday evening or Monday with how I did:
Best Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Outlook: Early critical precursors have placed Spotlight in the position of soft front runner for the Oscars and here. In fact, one of its main competitors The Big Short is in the other category so that helps even more. Potential spoilers could be Carol or just maybe Mad Max, but Spotlight is the odds on favorite here.
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Runner-Up: Carol
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
Outlook: Let’s dispense with the two outright comedies – Spy and Trainwreck – as they stand no real chance. Joy‘s mixed critical reaction probably leaves it out, too. So we’re down to The Big Short and The Martian. With the deserved controversy of having The Martian even here in the first place aside, Short seems to have the bigger momentum right now and it should edge out its main competitor.
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Runner-Up: The Martian
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
Outlook: While he’s famously never won an Oscar, Leo did take a Globe two years ago (in Comedy) for Wolf of Wall Street. Look for his dramatic work here to be recognized and it would frankly be fairly surprising if he didn’t win. I’d say Fassbender or maybe Cranston pose the only real upset threats.
Predicted Winner: DiCaprio
Runner-Up: Fassbender
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirise Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Outlook: My inkling here is that Blanchett and Mara will pretty much cancel each other out for their work in Carol. Vikander is a double nominee this year, but appears to be a long shot in this race especially. Ronan is certainly a possibility, but Larson is the likely recipient for her lauded work.
Predicted Winner: Larson
Runner-Up: Ronan
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffal0, Infinitely Polar Bear
Outlook: First things first – Pacino and Ruffalo have zero shot. Like the previously discussed race, I could see Bale and Carell canceling one another out and that leaves Mr. Damon.
Predicted Winner: Damon
Runner-Up: Bale
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Outlook: Schumer had her breakout role with Trainwreck and stands a chance, but this is probably Lawrence’s race to lose.
Predicted Winner: Lawrence
Runner-Up: Schumer
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Outlook: This race is a little trickier and could be ripe for an upset (Elba or Shannon wouldn’t shock me). However, this probably comes down to Rylance (who’s picked up numerous critic precursor notices) and Stallone (for the sentimental vote). I’m going with sentimentality trumping all else.
Predicted Winner: Stallone
Runner-Up: Rylance
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Outlook: Another race that could feature an upset (any one of these ladies are possible), but I’ll give the slight momentum to Leigh’s work.
Predicted Winner: Leigh
Runner-Up: Winslet
Best Director
Nominees:
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Outlook: Don’t see Haynes or Inarritu prevailing, so that leaves this question: will the HFPA go with the likely Best Drama Picture winner’s director (McCarthy) or the outstanding visual work from Miller or Scott. Miller has picked up a number of precursor awards, so I give him the edge over Scott and I ultimately believe he’ll eek out the victory here.
Predicted Winner: Miller
Runner-Up: McCarthy
As for the other categories – here are my picks
Best Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Runner-Up: The Big SHort
Best Score
Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Runner-Up: Carol
Best Song
Predicted Winner: “See You Again” from Furious 7
Runner-Up: “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Runner-Up: Anomalisa
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Runner-Up: Mustang
And there you have it, folks! My Golden Globe predictions…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.
When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million
2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.
Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.
Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.
Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.
Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).
August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.
After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $47.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Ricki and the Flash
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.
Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.
Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.
Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?
While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.
Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
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