Tag: Shailene Woodley

Oscar Watch: The Fault in Our Stars

It’s still mighty early in the year to be talking about Oscar contenders as probably nearly 100% have yet to be released. I’ve already touched on the somewhat longshot prospects of The Grand Budapest Hotel and the very likely possibility of this fall’s Foxcatcher receiving nods (Steve Carell is a shoo-in). You can read those posts here:

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Oscar Watch: Foxcatcher

However, this weekend brings the film adaptation of John Green’s wildly popular novel The Fault in Our Stars. The pic appears to be headed towards a massive opening weekend and it sits at a rock solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So is there any chance this could be nominated for Best Picture? Truth be told – not much of one. Then again it’s hard to gauge right now because we don’t know how strong this autumn’s offerings will be. If Fault is a mega-grosser and a good portion of the fall hopefuls disappoint, the stars could align.

While I’m not high on the film’s chances at Best Picture, a Best Actress nomination for Shailene Woodley seems more feasible. The actress has already been in the mix of awards discussions for 2011’s The Descendants and 2013’s The Spectacular Now and  she’s yet to be nominated. Woodley had a hit earlier this spring with Divergent and she’s drawn rave reviews for this. I wouldn’t bank on her receiving a Best Actress nod, but it’s certainly possible.

As always, I’ll update my Oscar hopefuls as they come out!

Box Office Predictions: June 6-8

The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.

The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.

Here’s how I think it’ll play out:

1. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.

In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.

The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.

Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).

That’s all for now friends!

The Fault in Our Stars Box Office Prediction

Based on an enormous bestselling novel from John Green, The Fault in Our Stars opens this Friday at the box office and it seems to be gaining momentum for a terrific opening.

Equipped with a minor $12 million budget, Fault stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two teenagers who meet at their cancer support group. The 2012 book has connected in a major way with YA readers in and its following is expected to bring in moviegoers. Fault should succeed in easily tripling its budget with its domestic opening weekend alone. This should continue a stellar 2014 for Woodley, in particular, whose Divergent this spring has earned #148 million stateside. I believe an opening in the $40M+ range is the most likely scenario meaning Fault should debut at the top spot.

The Fault in Our Stars opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million

For my Edge of Tomorrow prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

Divergent Box Office Prediction

More than a year after their financial juggernaut Twilight franchise wrapped up, Summit Entertainment moves on with their next series based on wildly popular YA novels with Divergent, opening Friday. Based on Veronica Roth’s books, the futuristic sci-fi actioner comes with a healthy $80 million budget and high expectations from the studio. Two sequels have already been greenlit with Insurgent debuting a year from now.

Headlined by Shailene Woodley and Theo James, Divergent also features a supporting cast that includes Shailene’s Spectacular Now costar Miles Teller and Oscar winner Kate Winslet. The box office prospects for Divergent are a bit murky. It’s highly unlikely to reach Hunger Games types of numbers. It also hopes to avoid the disappointing performances of other YA movies like The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones or Beautiful Creatures from last year.

Recent speculation has focused on Divergent opening in range with the first Twilight, which earned $69.6 million in its premiere. This seems like reasonable territory to me. The chances of Divergent getting past $75M out of the gate are within reach. However, I’ll predict it falls just under what Bella, Edward, and company achieved in their debut.

Divergent opening weekend prediction: $68.4 million

For my Muppets Most Wanted prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/muppets-most-wanted-box-office-prediction/