Oscar Predictions: Late Fame

As an NYC poet, Willem Dafoe’s character is subject to the unanticipated Late Fame of the title. Kent Jones directs the drama which has screened at the Venice and New York festivals. Greta Lee and Edmund Donovan costar.

Based on a posthumously released novella from Arthur Schnitzler and adapted by Samy Burch (who received an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2023’s May December), Fame is generating mostly complimentary early reviews. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 76 on Metacritic.

If Fame were to contend for awards, it would be with Dafoe’s performance. The veteran would be vying for his fifth gold statue. His last try was for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate in the lead derby. Dafoe’s previous three attempts were in supporting for 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire and 2017’s The Florida Project. He’s yet to win.

Unlike seven years ago, Best Actor is already looking too crowded for a fifth nod to be realistic. That’s unless precursors provide him with surprise mentions. We’re also not even sure that Fame will materialize as a 2025 calendar play so that doesn’t help. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

André Øvredal’s The Last Voyage of the Demeter, based on one chapter in Bram Stoker’s Dracula, certainly won’t sail off with a Best Picture nomination. However, there is one category worth considering. The ocean set horror pic is out this weekend with a less than impressive 44% Rotten Tomatoes log. Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, Liam Cunningham, David Dastmalchian, Javier Botet, and Woody Norman star.

Francis Ford Coppola’s 1992 version of the Stoker source material took the Academy Award for Makeup and Hairstyling. Other monster mashes that competed in that race are Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, Shadow of the Vampire, and The Wolfman (which won).

Demeter is earning some kudos for the makeup work, including for Botet’s Dracula. The Makeup and Hairstyling derby is one that’s mostly immune to critical acclaim. Demeter‘s inclusion should come down to competition. Unfortunately for it, there could be plenty with Dune: Part Two, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Maestro, and Poor Things to mention some. It’s a stretch, but I wouldn’t completely discount this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Inside

Inside opens in limited release on March 17th after premiering at the Berlin Film Festival last month. Marking the directorial debut of Vasilis Katsoupis, Willem Dafoe stars as an art thief who gets trapped in a penthouse that he’s attempting to rob. Eliza Stuyck and Gene Bervoets costar.

Early reviews are decent with a 77% Rotten Tomatoes thus far. However, the only real awards attention this would get is for its lead. Dafoe has vied for Academy consideration for three and a half decades and come up short four times. This includes three nods in Supporting Actor (1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire, The Florida Project in 2017) and a sole lead nomination for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate as Vincent Van Gogh. I’m sure Inside‘s character would love some original works of his.

For Inside, there’s some raves for his work. Yet I’m not sure this pic will still be on the radar of voters a few months down the line. He has, at best, an outside shot. Perhaps his appearance in Poor Things from The Favourite director Yorgos Lanthimos later this year will give him another shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Throwback Review: Shadow of the Vampire (2000)

Shadow of the Vampire is high concept cinema in bizarre fashion. It’s not wholly successful in its execution as it struggles to fill the running time of the silent era features it clearly adores. The gimmick is clever on paper and effective occasionally on-screen… what if your lead vampire in your movie was an actual one?

In Steven Katz’s script, the picture happens to be the 1922 German classic Nosferatu. The people portrayed here are real. What happens with them is not. John Malkovich is director F.W. Murnau. He can’t get the rights to Bram Stoker’s Dracula novel so he simply changes the names and keeps the plot (that part is true and resulted in legal proceedings). His casting of Dracu…, or Nosferatu, is said to be unknown theater actor Max Schreck (Willem Dafoe). It’s explained that he’s severely Method in his approach. The cast and crew, which includes Eddie Izzard in the Jonathan Harker part and Catherine McCormack as Mina, just go with it. That is until disappearances and strange illnesses begin to occur. Murnau knows the real secret. Max isn’t acting at all and he’s made a grand and deadly bargain to nab his lead. In lots of movies about making movies, the studio brass or producers are the bloodsuckers. Not here.

The project is centered on just how far a filmmaker will go to make a masterpiece. And Murnau’s heart of darkness takes him down some pitch black roads (in real life he was said to be a swell guy). Portraying pomposity and madness is right up Malkovich’s sleeve and he did it far more memorably in Being John Malkovich.

Vampire belongs to Dafoe, unrecognizable except for those bulging eyes. Under his makeup, the actor is a joy to watch and is basically the reason this is worthwhile. E. Elias Merhige serves behind the camera here. He does excel at capturing the look of the pre talkies. Yet I never escaped a feeling that the idea behind all this seemed smarter in conception than realization.

Oscar Watch: At Eternity’s Gate

Willem Dafoe has received three Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor in his long and distinguished career: 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire, and just last year for The Florida Project. He has never gotten recognition in lead Actor, but that is likely to change with At Eternity’s Gate. Featuring Dafoe as Vincent Van Gogh in his final days, the Julian Schnabel directed pic has debuted at the Venice Film Festival. Early buzz suggests its star stands an excellent chance at a nomination.

Most of the critical reaction is encouraging, but the picture itself is certainly a question mark in all other categories. Schnabel has certainly received Academy love before. 2000’s Before Night Falls saw Javier Bardem get a Best Actor nod. 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly garnered four nominations, including Best Director. Original Screenplay and Cinematography could be two additional categories where this is considered.

As far as Dafoe’s costars, Oscar Isaac is a possibility as fellow painter Paul Gauguin. Yet it’s also entirely feasible that CBS Films will focus the bulk of its campaign on Dafoe. They may not have to try too hard.

Bottom line: any other races are uncertain, but Dafoe looks poised for his first walk down the red carpet as a Best Actor nominee.

At Eternity’s Gate is out domestically on November 16. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Florida Project

The first trailer was released today for The Florida Project, a coming of age drama that debuted at Cannes earlier this summer. It is director Sean Baker’s follow-up to his critically acclaimed 2015 feature Tangerine and early word for this Project is quite glowing as well. The pic was snatched up by A24 for distribution rights and it opens in limited release on October 6th.

Rotten Tomatoes currently has Florida at 100% and it stands a good chance at some 2017 Oscar recognition. A24 has proven itself to be a player over the last couple of cycles in the awards derby by distributing such titles as Ex Machina, Room, The Lobster, 20th Century Women, and most notably – last year’s Best Picture winner Moonlight. 

Early buzz here suggests a nomination may well be in store for Willem Dafoe. If so, it would mark his third nomination after 1986’s Platoon and 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire. Reviews suggest this is one of his finest performances. It’s not totally clear if he’ll be campaigned for in Lead Actor or Supporting, but the smart money is on the latter. I would also say it’s worth keeping an eye on the Original Screenplay category where Baker and co-writer Chris Bergoch could find themselves in the mix.

As for Best Picture, A24 would need one heck of a push to make that happen, but they’ve proven themselves before. For that reason, this Project is one to keep an eye on when it comes to nominations.