Prior to its November 7th stateside debut, Nuremberg has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. The historical drama is James Vanderbilt’s second directorial feature behind 2015’s so-so received Truth (he’s best known for his screenwriting including Zodiac, the two Amazing Spider-Man pics, the latest Scream entries and Abigail). Best Actor winners Russell Crowe (as Nazi war criminal Hermann Göring) and Rami Malek headline. Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Colin Hanks, Richard E. Grant and Michael Shannon costar.
Reaction is in the mixed variety with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. Despite decent ink for the cast, this is unlikely to generate any significant awards chatter for the Sony Pictures Classics release. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony hopes horror fans get hooked on the nostalgic scares of I Know What You Did Last Summer on July 18th. It restarts the late 90s franchise that capitalized on Kevin Williamson’s notoriety from Scream (he penned both). Jennifer Kaytin Robinson directs with Madelyn Cline, Chase Sui Wonders, Jonah Hauer-King, Tyriq Winters, Sarah Pidgeon, and Billy Campbell among the cast. Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze Jr. reprise their roles from the features over a quarter century ago.
The teen centric slasher from 1997 was a financial success ($72 million domestically) while 1998 follow-up I Still Know What You Did Last Summer couldn’t measure up with $40 million stateside. This series may not hold the same reverence that Scream does among genre fans. Name brand familiarity could still mean decent grosses.
Tracking has this pegged in the mid to late teens. I think it could go higher in the low 20s, but I’ll go with the expectations.
I Know What You Did Last Summer opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million
Serial killer thriller Strange Darling arrives in theaters this weekend from writer/director JT Mollner. Some of the best reviews of the year come with it. Willa Fitzgerald (from MTV’s version of Scream), Kyle Gallner, Barbara Hershey, and Ed Begley, Jr. are among the cast of the acclaimed pic that was first seen nearly a year ago at Fantastic Fest.
Sporting a 98% RT rating, many critics are saying to enter Strange as blind as possible. Particular raves are devoted to Fitzgerald and the screenplay. This is not, however, a genre that awards voters usually honor. Don’t be surprised if Darling pops up on some top 10 lists in a few months. Seeing it in the Oscar mix? That would be strange. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mikey Madison is best known for the Scream reboot two years ago, but awards voters seemed poised to become more familiar with her thanks to Anora. From The Florida Project and Red Rocket writer/director Sean Baker, Madison is the title character Brooklyn escort who enters into a romance and business situation with a Russian oligarch played by Mark Eydelshteyn. The supporting cast includes Yuriy Borisov, Karren Karagulian, Vache Tovmasyan, and Darya Ekamasova.
Its premiere at Cannes has drawn some of the best word-of-mouth of any film at the festival with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The two leads are being heralded with Madison especially being singled out for a breakout role. I have not had her in the mix in my Best Actress projections. That is going to change and do not be surprised if she’s in my high five when I update predictions this weekend. Baker, who probably came close to an Original Screenplay nod in 2017 for Florida, could contend.
Best Picture could be a stretch though Madison has immediately vaulted into the conversation as critics should be screaming her name throughout the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of Ready or Not and the last two Scream installments, are in vampiric mode with Abigail on April 19th. Reimagining 1936’s Dracula’s Daughter, the horror flick stars Melissa Barrera (also of the latest Scream entries), Dan Stevens, Alisha Weir, Kathryn Newton, William Catlett, Kevin Durand, the late Angus Cloud, Matthew Goode, and Giancarlo Esposito.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on in 2024. Just last weekend, we saw The First Omen struggle to bring audiences in with an opening under $10 million despite solid reviews. Abigail is generating appreciative notices as well with a current 82% RT rating.
I suspect Abigail will cross $10 million, but $20 million (or even $15 million) seems like a bridge too far.
Abigail opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:
Let’s start with the fact with Mike Schmidt (Josh Hutcherson), the night guard at the now abandoned entertainment center in Five Nights at Freddy’s is just bad at his job. It’s an excuse to sleep, but there’s a purpose. He’s trying to conjure up the circumstances of what happened to his kidnapped brother years ago. Mike believes his visions during the dreams will lead to finding his sibling or at least uncovering who took him. Emma Tammi’s adaptation of the wildly successful video game series that began in 2014 (which I have no familiarity with) might lead to counting sheep as well, especially in the first half. That’s instead of counting on the animatronic animals to provide worthy scares. It doesn’t happen often.
The genealogical drama doesn’t stop at the protagonist’s abduction visions. He also has a much younger sister Abby (Piper Rubio). Their aunt (Mary Stuart Masterson) wants custody for the paycheck. Mike is desperate for employment to keep little sis with him. He reluctantly accepts the graveyard shift at Freddy Fazbear’s Pizza. Matthew Lillard of Scream distinction interviews him for the gig. The long closed pie shop with four singing critters probably would’ve been an awesome experience back in the 1980s. I could imagine Eleven and the Stranger Things gang or a Goonie hanging at it while working with a better script. Freddy’s is mysteriously not torn down. Kindly and pretty policewoman Vanessa (Elizabeth Lail) tells Mike they have a tough time keeping guards on duty. Apparently security during the day is not warranted.
By night 3 of Mike’s gig that he can’t stay alert for, he is forced to bring Abby along. That’s at about the midway point when we already know the house band is capable of wreaking havoc on unwanted visitors. They befriend Abby while Mike is confounded by their existence. At least he’s awake now even if Hutcherson’s performance is missing much of a pulse. I was less groggy too after muddling through the Schmidt family misfortunes for almost an hour. The bear, rabbit, chick, and fox come from Jim Henson’s Creature Shop and they are effective creature designs.
If only the screenplay (cowritten by the game’s creator Scott Cawthorn) allowed them to play more in their venue. We have a promising setting that is underutilized. I know this is massively successful IP with millions of young diehard fans and maybe this will deliver for them. Regular old horror fans unfamiliar with the source material (like me) have to settle for infrequent PG-13 frights. I found myself hungering to see what kind of Reagan era games occurred when kiddie customers were devouring mediocre pizza instead of the overly plotted mechanics served here. That makes it hard to recommend one night in this setting so I just say no.
There’s more than one way to clean a knife after piercing a victim’s skin in the Scream flicks. The filmmakers appear determined to give this series nine lives or more as the sixth installment finds new terrorizers to fill the Ghostface mask. Let’s quickly go through the strange name game as 2022’s Scream was really Scream V. Termed as a requel, Urban Dictionary considers that a “sequel to a movie that functions somewhere between a sequel, a reboot, and a remake”. Unfortunately Scream (’22 version) didn’t function that well at all. With directors Matt Bettinelli and Tyler Gillett taking over directorial duties from the late Wes Craven, they showed lots of appreciation for the original from 1996. Like the other follow-ups, it couldn’t compare to the fresh satiric edge that part 1 had. In fact, despite a well-executed slashing or two, I’d rank it fifth of the lot.
Now I’d rank it sixth because Scream VI is a minor improvement. It picks up a year after the events of the fifth. We’re not in Woodsboro anymore as Sam Carpenter (Melissa Barrera), daughter of the OG Ghostface Billy Loomis, has relocated to the Big Apple. She’s there mostly to keep watch over little sister Tara (Jenna Ortega), now a college freshman along with sister and brother Mindy (Jasmin Savoy Brown) and Chad (Mason Gooding). They call themselves the Core 4 since they managed to survive the havoc wreaked by Sam’s ex-bf Richie in the last go-round.
The dwindling legacy characters returning are Gail Weathers (Courtney Cox), the reporter who’s always looking for a way to make a buck from the mayhem. There’s also Kirby Reed (Hayden Panettiere), who played an integral role in Scream 4. She was the best friend to the eventual Ghostface in that one. And while part four was one of the better sequels, I would understand if you forgot her character. Now Kirby is an FBI agent who shows up to help (which obviously makes her a quick suspect). I wonder if her appearance might be due to Sidney (Neve Campbell) not being present. Word is they didn’t want to show her the money to appear.
While the predecessor often paid homage to Scream ’96 (released the same month when Mason Gooding’s dad Cuba was screaming “Show me the money!” to Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire), this has its winks to Scream 2 from 1997 by being set in the higher ed world. Some of the brutal sequences are well-constructed. The opening with Samara Weaving as a college professor on a blind date is a clever way to start.
Part of the fun in the Scream pics is figuring out the slayers and it’s usually more than one. There’s a few to consider with Sam’s neighbor and secret lover (Josh Segarra), the detective father (Dermot Mulroney) of her roommate Quinn (Liana Liberato), and Chad’s roommate Ethan (Jack Champion). And who knows? Maybe Papa Billy’s demonic genes are infecting Sam.
As we’ve seen before in this franchise, there’s a scene where a character explains that the “rules have changed!”. And nothing is as it seems. The NYC locale change is welcome (Ghostface brandishing a shotgun in a bodega is fresh new territory). Scream VI gets by for a while in the new setting and with its furious piercings. Sadly it is not faster. The 122 minute runtime is a series record and when we reach the third act, the rules haven’t changed much with the unmasking reveals. That portion is the biggest letdown. There’s only so many ways to inject life into these deaths, but they’ll find ways as long as we continue to show them the money.
**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M
Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M
Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.
A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.
Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:
1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
4. 65
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.
Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.
65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.
Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.
Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.
Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.
In January 2022, Scream successfully resurrected the franchise that Wes Craven began in 1996. A sequel was approved immediately and Scream VI slashes into multiplexes March 10th. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett are back directing with Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega (whose star has risen thanks to Wednesday), Hayden Panettiere, and Courtney Cox reprising their roles from prior installments. Other costars include Jack Champion, Henry Czerny, Liana Liberato, Dermot Mulroney, Tony Revolori, and Samara Weaving. For the first time, Neve Campbell is not among the cast.
In 2011, Scream 4 marked the financial nadir of the bunch when it made only $38 million domestically. A silent decade between entries got the nostalgia juices flowing as last year’s Scream took in $30 million in its first three days and $81 million total stateside. With a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for a horror pic), anticipation for this sequel should be high.
Scream VI appears poised to challenge the record opening weekend for the series. That belongs to Scream 3 with $34 million and tracking suggests Ghostface could wield the power to top that number. I’ll forecast it manages to get there and perhaps top $40 million.
Scream VI opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
It’s nice to have a trailer that’s inspired countless memes – mainly from its demented title character doll busting creepy dance moves. M3GAN is the first wide release of 2023 and it appears poised to start the year off on a profitable note. The sci-fi horror pic comes from director Gerard Johnstone with a screenplay by Malignant scribe Akela Cooper. Jason Blum and James Wan serve as producers as the Blumhouse label looks to have another buzzy hit. Allison Williams headlines the cast and she’s no stranger to moneymaking fright fests that open early in the calendar year (2017’s Get Out). The supporting players include Violet McGraw, Ronny Chieng, and Brian Jordan Alvarez.
With a marketing campaign showcasing the alarming and humorous robotic pal, M3GAN may open on pace with other hit genre pics of recent times. I could see it debuting somewhere in between the $30 million from last January’s Scream reboot and the near $23 million that Smile took in during the fall. That’ll be enough to produce smiles and screams of joy for Universal.
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