My Mother’s Wedding, known as North Star at the time, premiered at the Toronto Film Festival all the way back in September 2023. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of actress Kristin Scott Thomas and reunites her with The Horse Whisperer costar Scarlett Johansson. The supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Emily Beecham, Freida Pinto, Thibault de Montalembert, and Scott Thomas herself.
Distributor Vertical may finally be putting Wedding out, but it’s doing so under the radar considering the talent involved. Reviews may explain why with a lowly 36% Rotten Tomatoes. Many movies begin their awards journeys at Toronto and other fall festivals. The opposite seemed to happen in this case as Wedding limps towards its release date. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.
The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.
Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
Jurassic World Rebirth looks to rule the Independence Day holiday frame beginning July 2nd. This is now the third iteration of the dino franchise that kicked off with 1993’s Jurassic Park from Steven Spielberg and the seventh entry overall. Gareth Edwards, no stranger to franchise fare with Godzilla and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in his discography, directs. Scarlett Johansson headlines the cast that features Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo.
The second Jurassic trilogy premiered in spectacular fashion a decade back when Jurassic World made $208 million out of the gate and $652 million domestically. The follow-ups performed well though with diminishing results. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in 2018 debuted at $148 million and $417 million overall. 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion was barely behind at $145 million and $376 million in total.
I anticipate that Rebirth will continue the downward trend. When World opened 10 years ago, there was pent up anticipation for the franchise with a nostalgia factor in play. Such factors are diluted with only a three-year layover between entries. It doesn’t help that Dominion was generally considered a disappointment.
That means the streak of Jurassic tales making nine figures in the traditional weekend is endangered. I’ll say high 70s to low 80s is likelier. However, the five-day could top $130 million.
Jurassic World Rebirth opening weekend prediction: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Wes Anderson’s latest The Phoenician Scheme, following its limited rollout in six venues this weekend, expands nationwide June 6th. Originally screened at Cannes earlier this month, Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton headline the the black comedy. Per usual with Mr. Anderson’s tales, the supporting cast is massive and includes Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hope Davis, Rupert Friend, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Willem Dafoe, and F. Murray Abraham.
Phoenician reviews are decent though not as effusive as those that greeted other works from the auteur. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 71 Metacritic. Anderson is certainly one of those filmmakers with a devoted following. His pictures aren’t going to make $100 million+, but they have their niche.
Predecessor Asteroid City from summer 2023 made $9 million for its expansion. I see no reason why Scheme wouldn’t gather about the same.
The Phoenician Scheme opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.
It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.
As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
They’re not all former cast members on my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time list as #49 is Chloe Fineman, who just began her sixth season on the iconic sketch show. She’s proven herself to be one of the program’s strongest impressionists including Meryl Streep, Scarlett Johansson, and Drew Barrymore. That’s in addition to dancing alongside Julia Stiles in a Save the Last Dance inspired Update bit and uproariously understudying fellow cast members in a digital short. Her take on con artist Anna Delvey is another example of her versatility as Fineman is one of SNL’s current bright spots.
Hasbro’s robotic franchise goes animated for the first time in nearly 40 years when Transformers One debuts next weekend. Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson, Brian Tyree Henry, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm provide voiceover work. Josh Cooley, who helmed Animated Feature winner Toy Story 4 from 2010, directs.
Critical reaction is mostly on the plus side and that’s more than can be said for some other titles in the group. The RT score is 89% with Metacritic at 62. The Tomatoes meter is on par with Bumblebee‘s 90% and far ahead of any others in the series. It also tops the 62% that 1986’s animated The Transformers: The Movie managed.
That said, I doubt this Transformers entry gets the Academy’s attention. 2007’s Transformers earned 3 nods for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The 2009 sequel Revenge of the Fallen nabbed a sole Sound Mixing mention. 2011’s Dark of the Moon received the same 3 noms as the ’07 original. 2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight, of course, was that year’s Best Picture. Nearly everything in this paragraph is true.
Transformers One could compete in Animated Feature, but I’ve yet to put it near my high five. If last year’s acclaimed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem couldn’t make the cut, I don’t think this does. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.
Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million
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