The latest concoction from the prolific Yorgos Lanthimos expands nationwide October 31st with Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline with Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone providing support. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival in late August and has an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating with 68 on Metacritic.
Poor Things became a major Academy contender (11 nominations) in 2023 while Kinds of Kindness underwhelmed with awards voters and viewers last year. I suspect Bugonia may perform closer to the latter as it could struggle everywhere between the coasts. While Poor amassed $34 million domestically at the box office, Kindness managed just $5 million.
Slated to hit around 1800 venues after a limited rollout the previous weekend, I have this between $2-4 million.
Let’s start with a major caveat as my Oscar Prediction posts from the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals kick off in earnest on this blog. Sometimes buzz emanating from these extravaganzas can be misleading. Initial word-of-mouth can make it seem like a particular film is a slam-dunk for awards consideration. On the flip side, mixed reaction can appear to doom a pic’s prospects and then it rallies upon wide release.
Venice started yesterday, Telluride begins tomorrow, and Toronto gets underway in a week. You can anticipate a lot of write-ups in the coming days. One of the more high-profile titles has screened in Italy and that’s Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos. A remake of the 2003 South Korean sci-fi satire Save the Green Planet!, the director’s regulars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline. The supporting cast includes Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone. It releases domestically on October 24th.
At a quick glance, the 100% Rotten Tomatoes meter (based on 13 reviews) and 82 on Metacritic indicates another massive Oscar player on the level of Lanthimos’s The Favourite and Poor Things. And that could hold true. A deeper dive into the critical takes makes me question whether it makes the Best Picture cut like the aforementioned efforts. I have had Bugonia in my top ten BP contenders for a number of weeks. I will say that, right now, I’m unsure whether it stays there.
Inclusion in BP may dictate whether Stone and Plemons make the cut in their lead categories. They could do it without the movie getting in the biggest race, but it makes it tougher. Right now it seems that Stone might have the edge if only one gets in. That dynamic might shift depending on how crowded the lead derbies become. Of all the major categories, Adapted Screenplay could be the strongest possibility. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are all feasible in the down-the-line competitions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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