Five years ago, Bradley Cooper made his directorial debut with A Star Is Born and it received 8 Oscar nominations with its sole win coming for “Shallow” in Original Song. At the Venice Film Festival, his follow-up Maestro has bowed prior to its November 22nd limited theatrical output and December 20th Netflix premiere. It recounts the relationship between famed conductor Leonardo Bernstein (Cooper) and activist Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Costars include Matt Bomer, Maya Hawke, Sarah Silverman, and Michael Urie.
The vast majority are singing Maestro‘s praises and it is at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, some of the positive reactions reveal drawbacks like a protracted third act. Cooper’s second behind the camera feature is expected to garner awards attention. The Venice reaction is enough for me to think Picture is likely as well as Cooper and Mulligan for their lead work. It’s also a contender in down the line competitions like Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Production Design, and (especially) Makeup and Hairstyling.
However, Maestro could experience some of the same omissions that A Star Is Born had. Cooper wasn’t nominated for Best Director five years ago and he could miss here. Star also didn’t get in for Adapted Screenplay. I don’t think it’s automatic that this one makes the cut for Original Screenplay (from Cooper and Josh Singer). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.
Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.
Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:
Predicted Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).
Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).
Predicted Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…
Predicted Nominees:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Runner-Up: RRR
That equates to these movies generating these numbers:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Nominations
The Fabelmans, The Woman King
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking
1 Nomination
The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till
On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!
Jennifer Lopez is back in rom com territory tomorrow with Marry Me, which debuts in theaters and Peacock streaming. It’s hoping to be a midsize Valentine’s Day frame hit. The reviews are in and they’re not half bad with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 60%.
You’d be correct in wondering why this material warrants an Oscar post. This is due to the soundtrack in which the star contributes numerous tracks. Some singles are already out such as “Pa’ Ti + Lonely” (a duet with her costar Maluma) and “On My Way”.
Universal could focus on either of them or other ditties for an Original Song push. If Lopez does manage to find herself in the mix, it would mark her first Academy nod. As you may recall, J-Lo was heavily favored to land a Supporting Actress mention two years ago for Hustlers and her omission was a surprise. There’s plenty of songs to come in the next year, but it stands to reason that she’ll be campaigned for her musical contributions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been 20 years since the heyday of Jennifer Lopez rom coms like The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan, but the actress returns to the genre (with a heavy dose of music) on February 11th in Marry Me. Directed by Kat Coiro, Lopez stars as a spurned pop star who strikes up a romance with Owen Wilson. The supporting cast includes Maluma, John Bradley, and Sarah Silverman.
Originally scheduled for Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 before the inevitable COVID delay, it will be available on Peacock streaming same day. Clearly hoping for a healthy female turnout, plenty of viewers could opt to RSVP from home rather than walk down the theater aisle.
J-Lo’s last foray into this territory was 2018’s Second Act, which debuted over a packed Christmas weekend to only $6.5 million (it legged out decently to nearly $40 million). I’ll project Marry Me manages to top that figure, but it still could struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it just manages to.
Marry Me opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
In a week filled with Oscar precursor activity, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award nominees will be announced tomorrow morning. This comes just two days following the reveal of the Golden Globe nods.
As you’re likely aware, this particular ceremony is made up of voters from the card carrying acting community. The top race is not honoring the Best Picture of the year. Instead, it’s bestowing the trophy for the favorite ensemble cast. This explains why, in this decade, the Oscar winner for BP and the winner here have matched only 4 of 9 times.
Let’s break it down in each category as I reveal my anticipated nominees with a first and second alternate. I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did and how the nominations could impact the Academy’s thought process.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The SAG voters are a tricky bunch to predict and the Ensemble race presents at least a dozen pictures that I feel could make the cut. When predicting the nominees, I’ll divide into three tiers that relate to the impending Oscar nods:
Our first tier consists of movies that are widely expected to be Best Picture nominees and contenders that might potentially win. That list would be The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite. I believe the first three here are close to guarantees for attention here. If any of them miss out, it’ll be widely reported as a surprising snub.
Our second tier consists of movies that are legitimate players for Best Picture nominations, but are unlikely to win. This list includes Bombshell, The Farewell, Jojo Rabbit, and Little Women. An argument could be made that Women would be most obvious to get in. Yet I think this could give Jojo the boost it needs for greater Academy attention.
Our third tier consists of movies that are long shot contenders for Oscar attention. We usually see one of these get a SAG nod. This list includes Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, Knives Out, and Waves. The trendy pick here is Knives as it should be quite fresh on the minds of voters. Waves would be the largest beneficiary since it’s received scant awards chatter lately. I have a hunch that Dolemite could register with the actors branch here.
Predicted Nominees
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Little Women
Second Alternate – Knives Out
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
The last five years of nominees have shown one 5 for 5 match with Oscar in 2016. The other four years gave us 4 out of the 5 eventual Academy nominees. In other words, this race is a massive indication of where voters may go.
2019 presents a challenge as there are nearly dozen legit contenders in the mix. Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix feel safe. The rest is a free for all.
Keeping with my Dolemite theme, the SAG branch may feel tempted to name the legendary Eddie Murphy here. I feel more confident about his inclusion than Adam Sandler, despite his early precursor attention.
Then I’m picking two spots between Christian Bale, Antonio Banderas, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Taron Egerton, Paul Walter Hauser, and Jonathan Pryce. Not an easy task. The Globes notably snubbed De Niro. If that occurs here, expect lots of talk about his dwindling Oscar chances. I’ll say he makes it in along with Leo.
Predicted Nominees
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
First Alternate – Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Second Alternate – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Renee Zellweger and Scarlett Johansson feel like shoo-ins. The rest is uncertain. While Charlize Theron in Bombshell looks good for Oscar, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk she’s named here. My feeling that Little Women gets snubbed in Ensemble could filter down to Saoirse Ronan and her chances. Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, and Lupita Nyong’o are all in the mix.
SAG has given us surprise contenders before, like Sarah Silverman in 2015’s I Smile Back. Could we see something in that order with Mary Kay Place (Diane) or Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell)?
Predicted Nominees
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
First Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Second Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Brad Pitt and The Irishman double play of Al Pacino and Joe Pesci should see their names called. Here’s a category where a non Oscar nominee can get in – think Hugh Grant in 2016’s Florence Foster Jenkins or Steve Carell in 2017’s Battle of the Sexes. That spot could go to someone like Wesley Snipes if my Dolemite love turns out real. There’s also Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy, Song Kang-Ho in Parasite, or Sterling K. Brown for Waves.
Yet I suspect the final two slots will be between Willem Dafoe, Tom Hanks, and Anthony Hopkins. I’ll readily admit it feels awfully strange to predict actors will leave Hanks out, but I’ll go there with trepidation.
Predicted Nominees
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
First Alternate – Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Second Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
SAG threw everyone for a loop last year when they didn’t nominate Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. She ended up taking home the Globe and Oscar. Prior to that, the previous nine SAG winners here also were victorious with the Academy.
Truth be told, this is the category I fear I could go 2 for 5 in. Laura Dern and Jennifer Lopez seem relatively safe. And then it’s picking three slots among Kathy Bates, Annette Bening, Scarlett Johansson (I do believe this is her best opportunity for a double nod), Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie, Zhao Shuzhen, and Maggie Smith. Good luck cracking this one!
Predicted Nominees
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
First Alternate – Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Second Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
That does it for now! Expect a recap coming your way at some juncture tomorrow…
Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to easily hit the #1 spot at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The film is Disney’s highly anticipated sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph and reviews are out today.
The verdict? Much like its predecessor, critical notice is strong as it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some early notices say it doesn’t quite match the original, but it’s all pretty much a positive vibe.
As to where that puts Internet in the Oscar race for Best Animated Feature, I’d say it’s almost certainly in. Wreck-It-Ralph also nabbed a nomination in that category, but lost to Disney/Pixar’s Brave. That would appear to be what will happen again as Ralph should get a nod and lose to the heroes of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.
Bottom line: Ralph officially broke into awards chatter today, but studio competition should keep it from achieving gold. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney is no stranger to debuting high-profile titles over the long Turkey Day weekend and they’re back at it again with RalphBreakstheInternet. It’s the sequel to 2012’s Wreck–It–Ralph and brings back the vocal stylings of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, and Ed O’Neill. New actors behind the mic include Gal Gadot, Taraji P. Henson, and Alfred Molina. Rich Moore and Phil Johnston direct.
While we’re not in Incredibles2 territory as far as expectations, Ralph is forecasted to easily break into the top spot for the Thanksgiving holiday. The original made $49 million for its start six years ago and ended up with $189 million.
Animated sequels can and have exceeded debut earnings of their predecessors. There’s been several years for kids to watch the original repeatedly and Internet could also appeal to younger adults. As mentioned, the Mouse Factory likes this frame for their drawn efforts. On the high-end, there’s Frozen, which made $93 million over the full Wednesday to Sunday frame ($67 million traditional weekend). On the low-end is TheGoodDinosaur with a $55 million five-day ($39 million three-day). Two years ago, Moana took in $82 million ($56 million Friday to Sunday). Last year it was Coco with $72 million ($50 million three-day).
So where does this fit in? I like it falling in between Disney’s output from the last two years. That means I’m estimating it slightly outshines Wreck–It for the traditional weekend with upper 70s for the whole holiday.
RalphBreakstheInternet opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
A glossy and often relevant retelling of one of the most famous matches ever, Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton’s Battle of the Sexes is centered on both the tennis court and the court of public opinion. Both matters are firmly on the focused mind of Billie Jean King (Emma Stone), the famed pro who was demanding equal pay for women in 1973 when the picture is set.
King and her fellow female players aren’t getting near that, so they start a league of their own, under the sponsorship of Virginia Slim cigarettes (it was a different time). Another player sees an opportunity to cash in on the publicity and that’s Bobby Riggs (Steve Carell), a former champion now in his mid 50s who spends most of his time as a compulsive gambler (though he doesn’t see it that way). His challenge to King to meet on the court generated a divide among the sexes and many eyeballs on the eventual event – apparently about 90 million.
The court of public opinion doesn’t extend to gender issues. King is married to Larry (Austin Stowell) who helps run her fledgling empire. Yet when she meets free spirit hairdresser Marilyn (Andrea Riseborough), a romance quickly develops. King is smitten, but she knows it must stay in the closet to protect her career.
Battle of the Sexes tells this tale entertainingly and somewhat superficially. The themes of gender equality are ones that render four decades later. Stone has the most material to work with in her nuanced and strong portrayal of King. There’s not much nuance to Carell’s Riggs, though he’s certainly fun to watch.
The screenplay doesn’t delve too deep into his story, but Carell plays it well enough to avoid him becoming a total caricature. King seems to know Bobby isn’t quite the chauvinist louse he purports to be. The same cannot be said for Bill Pullman’s Jack Kramer, a prominent former pro turned announcer who doesn’t understand anything about women’s liberation. The pic is peppered with familiar faces in smaller parts, including Elisabeth Shue as Bobby’s wealthy and frustrated wife and Alan Cumming as the team’s outfit designer who quickly figures out Billie’s affair.
King would eventually earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom due to her advocacy for gay rights and equal pay. Sexes sees her at the advent of that life’s work. We see her drive as she tirelessly practices to beat a man at his game when so few think it’s possible. In fact, hearing Howard Cosell’s actual play-by-play during the game is both a treat and a stark reminder that it was a different era. We know eventually that King’s relentless work ethic will be applied elsewhere and for an even greater cause. Battle doesn’t delve overly deep into how she got there, but it serves up its replay of history admirably enough.
In the humorously titled Popstar: NeverStopNeverStopping, there’s a gag involving the terrific Will Arnett that only takes up maybe three minutes of screen time. He plays the host of “CMZ” (think TMZ) as he hilariously chats with his staff of gossip reporters and furiously downs big gulps and other assorted beverages. It struck my funny bone so much that I found myself wondering how good a movie would be if it were just about them. Then I remembered that taking memorable three minute bits and stretching them into feature length comedies usually doesn’t work.
There are other moments in Popstar that work. Yet it didn’t quite change my theory above. Fans of “Saturday Night Live” are familiar with The Lonely Island, Andy Samberg’s music group responsible for several YouTube friendly videos packed with catchy lyrics and musical icon cameos. Here, Samberg and his colleagues Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone (that pair share directing duties) make up The Style Boyz – a hip hop pop trio that hit it big. Yet it’s Kid Connor (Samberg) that was the Justin Timberlake (who cameos), Beyoncé or Method Man of the group and branches out on the solo tip. Taccone’s Kid Contact becomes his DJ and Schaffer’s Kid Brain leaves the business to become a farmer in Colorado (wonder where that development will lead to??).
We pick up as solo act Connor4Real is set to debut his sophomore album, which is a disaster looming. Along the way, Popstar parodies the extreme narcissism of its industry while throwing in plenty of ridiculous songs. None of them really hold a candle to the brilliance displayed in the granddaddy of music doc spoofs, ThisisSpinalTap. As mentioned, there’s just not enough solid material to totally justify the 90 minutes here.
One mistake is that the Lonely team who wrote the screenplay seem to believe that cameos count as jokes. There are tons and tons of cameos. Admittedly some work (Seal’s bit is a trip and Timberlake gets to flex his comedic chops), but many others leave no impression. For the performers not playing themselves, a little of Samberg’s Connor goes a long way. Sarah Silverman and Tim Meadows are mostly background players as his publicist and manager. And the versatile Joan Cusack pops up so briefly as Connor’s hard partying mom that I can only think her part was left on the cutting room floor.
While there are laughs to be had here, you’re probably better off looking up the trio’s SNL work. They’re shorter and more consistently funny. See if you can find Arnett’s scenes too…
It has, at least to me, a title that makes me laugh every time I think of it. Yet I’m not convinced that will lead to an impressive performance on the charts.
Andy Samberg and his Lonely Island partners Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone headline the music documentary spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. Costars include Sarah Silverman, Tim Meadows, Bill Hader, Joan Cusack, Maya Rudolph, Will Arnett (pulling double duty over the weekend with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows), and Martin Sheen. There’s also a bunch of cameos from real pop stars such as Adam Levine, Mariah Carey, Usher, and Carrie Underwood.
Mr. Samberg’s digital shorts on “Saturday Night Live” were a solid staple of the show for many years with classics like “Lazy Sunday” and “Dick in a Box”. His film career, on the other hand, has been pretty unimpressive box office wise. 2007’s Hot Rod and 2012’s That’s My Boy both were critical and commercial disappointments.
I’ll predict Popstar struggles to even reach high single digits.
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows prediction, click here:
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