A trio of multiple Oscar winners team up for The Post, which expands nationwide next weekend over the four-day MLK holiday frame. The dramatic political thriller from Steven Spielberg is headlined by Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kay Graham and Tom Hanks as editor Ben Bradlee and their exposure of the Nixon Adminstration’s Pentagon Papers scandal. Costars include Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood, and Carrie Coon.
Unsurprisingly, the film has garnered some Oscar attention for itself and looks to be a player in numerous races when nominations are announced on January 23rd. The Post has received lots of ink for its comparisons to the political scene today. Reviews have been mostly strong and it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Boasting its A list director and two stars, this should accomplish its mission of appealing to adult moviegoers. It’s performed extremely well in limited release thus far. I’ll predict this posting a low to mid 20s debut.
The Post opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.
There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.
Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.
Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 3)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)
14. Detroit (PR: 12)
15. Get Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
The Big Sick
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
Wind River
Coco
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)
9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Algee Smith, Detroit
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World
Will Poulter, Detroit
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Sarah Paulson, The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Thank You for Your Service
First, They Killed My Father
The Death of Stalin
Wonder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Get Out (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 6)
9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wind River
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
2. In the Fade
3. First, They Killed My Father
4. Happy End
5. Foxtrot
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square
7. A Fantastic Woman
8. Loveless
9. The Divine Order
10. Tom of Finland
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children
5. Ferdinand
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Despicable Me 3
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. City of Ghosts
2. Risk
3. Icarus
4. Cries from Syria
5. Jane
Other Possibilities:
6. Step
7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
8. Dina
9. One of Us
10. Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Post
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. Mudbound
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Wonder Wheel
10. Call My by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Victoria and Abdul
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Beguiled
8. Wonder Wheel
9. The Post
10. Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman
5. I, Tonya
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. It
10. Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Thor: Ragnarok
10. Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Wonder Woman
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water
7. Coco
8. Detroit
9. Baby Driver
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver
7. Detroit
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Darkest Hour
10. Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonderstruck
5. Coco
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. The Post
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
8. “The Promise” from The Promise
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
11 Nominations
Darkest Hour
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread
4 Nominations
Mudbound, The Greatest Showman
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast
1 Nomination
Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker
My weekly Thursday predictions are in for the eight major categories at the Oscars. As October closes out, we will see some changes beginning next week as November rolls in. This will be the final week of listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the other seven races. Starting next week, the Best Picture possibilities will go down to 15 and 10 in the other categories. Additionally, on November 2, I’ll be bringing in the other categories related to feature films.
Over the past week, we’ve seen first trailers hit for I, Tonya and Phantom Thread, both threats to get multiple nods. The Phantom trailer and subsequent news also introduced us to Vicky Krieps, who apparently will be campaigned for in an already packed lead actress race. I’m still on The Florida Project bandwagon and it moves from 9th to 7th this week in BP possibilities. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird also makes a big jump in the rankings.
The film Chappaquiddick was moved to 2018 and that now removes the (long shot) possibility that Jason Clarke could have received a Best Actor nod portraying Senator Ted Kennedy.
Yet the biggest development of the week is Warner Bros announcement that Clint Eastwood’s The15:17toParis will be opening in February 2018. There’s still a chance it could receive a limited late year push for Oscar consideration, but for now it’s out of contention.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
8. Mudbound (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 18)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 15)
12. Detroit (PR: 10)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
14. Get Out (PR: 20)
15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)
16. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 14)
17. Downsizing (PR: 16)
18. The Greatest Showman (PR: 17)
19. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 19)
21. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 23)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 21)
23. Molly’s Game (PR: 25)
24. Wind River (PR: 24)
25. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The15:17toParis
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 7)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 15)
11. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
12. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 10)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Linklater, LastFlagFlying (PR: 15)
15. Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)
11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)
12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)
13. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 15)
15. Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (moved to 2018)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Vicky Krieps, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 10)
13. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 14)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 10)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 14)
15. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 12)
14. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Stronger (PR: 11)
11. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
12. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)
13. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 15)
14. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The 15:17 to Paris
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 3)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 8)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
12. Downsizing (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: 13)
14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Wonder Wheel
And there you have it! My final October predictions. I’ll be back next week with all the categories for the first time…
My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.
It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:
I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.
Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.
Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
Other Possibilities:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
12. Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)
14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)
18. Downsizing (PR: 18)
19. Get Out (PR: 16)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)
21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)
22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)
23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Molly’s Game
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)
13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)
11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)
11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)
12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
2. Mudbound (PR: 3)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
12. Stronger (PR: 13)
13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
12. Downsizing (PR: 12)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
14. Wind River (PR: 14)
15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…
Todd Haynes’s Carol takes its source material from Patricia Highsmith’s 1952 novel, written at a time when its subject matter was considered taboo and where its hopeful conclusion was unfathomable to many of the readers. There’s a Hitchcock connection here as Highsmith is primarily known for writing the book in which Strangers on a Train is based, but The Price of Salt (in which Carol is based) tells a lesbian romance in which she used an alias to release it. Sixty plus years later, the film serves as an often engaging and very well acted tale of a different time in which this particular love story was considered toxic.
Set in New York City in the 1950s (with beautiful production design and first rate cinematography), Cate Blanchett plays the title character. She’s a well to do housewife with a young daughter going through a rough divorce. Her estrangement from her husband (an always solid Kyle Chandler) is not explored in great depths, but we soon learn part of the issue was her affair with a long time friend (Sarah Paulson, who’s currently giving Emmy worthy work on FX’s O.J. limited series). Carol meets Therese (Rooney Mara) in a department store as she’s Christmas shopping and the two are quickly taken with one another. Therese, an aspiring photographer, is stuck in a listless relationship with Richard (Jake Lacy) and she quickly begins to accept Carol’s overtures for lunch dates and eventually, a road trip. As their relationship grows, so does the drama surrounding Carol’s divorce proceedings in which her sexuality can be used as an excuse for her to lose custody of her child.
This picture moves along at a pace that some critics would describe as deliberate, which can fairly be called slow in this case. The screenplay by Phyllis Nagy focuses on the couple with the supporting characters relegated to the sidelines. It’s quite helpful that Blanchett and Mara both give strong performances. Ms. Blanchett has the flashier role, but Mara is equally as impressive with a quieter role in which she believably conveys this young woman figuring herself out with a woman who’s grown more comfortable with who she is.
I’m sure this source material was considerably more shocking in its era and Carol now stands as a technically pleasing love affair with two actresses shining in their parts.
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