Tag: Saorise Ronan

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 20th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.

Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.

In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dídi

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cloud

Flow

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visusal Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Gladiator II

6 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Blitz, Conclave

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked

2 Nominations

Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 21st Edition

Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?

That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.

The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.

There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.

Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).

In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).

We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.

In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.

You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)

16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)

20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)

Zendaya, Challengers

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

I Saw the TV Glow

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Original

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Longlegs

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)

7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)

8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

“Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

3 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Early 2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

My big announcement today is the selection of my first candidates for Best Actress in the 2020 Oscar field! If you happened to miss my predictions for the supporting categories and Best Actor, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/10/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

Unlike Best Actor, none of my initial top 5 picks here have seen their pictures screened. As discussed in previous posts, 2020 is a mighty speculative year for these early August estimates. The potential contenders are certainly some heavy hitters and it was, frankly, hard to whittle the list to this quintet. 4 of my 5 choices here are past winners. Both Viola Davis and Jennifer Hudson are Supporting Actress victors for 2016’s Fences and 2006’s Dreamgirls respectively. Frances McDormand is a two-time lead Actress winner for 1996’s Fargo and 2017’s Three Billboards Outside, Missouri. Kate Winslet took this prize in 2008 for The Reader. The only non-winner is Michelle Pfeiffer and she’s been nominated three times. If she makes it here, it would mark her first nod in 28 years since 1992’s Love Field. 

This is in addition to acclaimed actresses such as Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, and Julianne Moore as possibilities and up and comers like Jessie Buckley, Liu Yifei, and Rachel Zegler. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s the silver screen return of cinematic legend Sophia Loren. She last won an Oscar for Two Women some 60 years ago. Elisabeth Moss has two already released pics for which she’s received solid reviews. Of the two, Shirley seems more viable than the horror hit The Invisible Man.

In 2019, my original late summer projections yielded a whopping 4 of the 5 eventual nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). In my ten other possibilities, I also identified eventual trophy recipient Renee Zellweger as Judy. 

Lots of intrigue in this race and here’s the first take:

EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Kate Winslet, Ammonite 

Other Possibilities: 

Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Rashida Jones, On the Rocks 

Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

Julianne Moore, The Glorias

Elisabeth Moss, Shirley

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Liu Yifei, Mulan 

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

That completes the acting portions of the early predictions and Best Director is up next! Until then…

2019 Oscar Predictions: November 25th Edition

Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:

  • 1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
  • Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
  • Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari. 
  • Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
  • Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
  • While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. 1917 (PR: 6)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. Parasite (PR: 3)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Little Women (PR: 7)

8. Joker (PR: 8)

9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)

10. Bombshell (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

12. The Farewell (PR: 12)

13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

15. Rocketman (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Waves

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)

4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)

9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)

10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)

4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)

8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)

10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)

9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)

10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bombshell (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knives Out (PR: 7)

9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Booksmart

Waves

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Little Women (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)

7. Hustlers (PR: 9)

8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)

9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Downton Abbey 

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)

4. Monos (PR: 8)

5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)

7. Atlantics (PR: 7)

8. Beanpole (PR: 5)

9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)

10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)

5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klaus (PR: 8)

7. Abominable (PR: 6)

8. Missing Link (PR: 7)

9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)

10. Funan (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 1)

2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)

3. Maiden (PR: 6)

4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)

5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Cave (PR: 3)

7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)

8. Honeyland (PR: 4)

9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)

10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Edge of Democracy

Knock Down the House 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. The Irishman (PR: 3)

4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 9)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 10)

10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Little Women (PR: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Rocketman (PR: 5)

5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Judy (PR: 10)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jojo Rabbit

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 4)

4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

5. Parasite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

9. Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rocketman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Judy (PR: 3)

4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)

5. Us (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

7. Joker (PR: 6)

8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. 1917 (PR: 5)

4. The Irishman (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 7)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)

9. Cats (PR: 8)

10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Little Women (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. Joker (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)

8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)

4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)

5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)

7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)

8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)

9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“Show Yourself” from Frozen II

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 2)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 6)

7. The Irishman (PR: 7)

8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)

10. Cats (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Aeronauts

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1)

2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Rocketman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. Cats (PR: 8)

9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Judy

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: 10)

8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)

9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

10. Aladdin (PR: 9)

And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:

10 Nominations

The Irishman

9 Nominations

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

1917

7 Nominations

Little Women, Marriage Story

5 Nominations

Joker, Parasite

4 Nominations

Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes

3 Nominations

Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman

2 Nominations

Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory

1 Nomination

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You

2017 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And they’re out!

The nominations for this February’s Academy Awards were revealed this morning by Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish. As always, there were some surprises and my months long quest for prediction perfection fell short. Of the 109 nominations, I correctly guessed 78 of them and that works out to 71% (a bit lower than previous years, but oh well).

Here I’ll break down every category and tell you how I did with a bit of analysis:

Best Picture

Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 7/9

Analysis: OK, lesson learned. When in doubt, predict NINE. The Best Picture category can fluctuate between 5 and 10 nominees, but that seems to be the magic number. I had The Florida Project in, but it was 8th out of my 8 predictions in likelihood so no big surprise there. Also not surprising is Darkest Hour getting in. A bit more so is the inclusion of Phantom Thread, which did far better this morning than I or almost anyone else figured.

Best Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: As mentioned above, the surprise here is Anderson’s nod for Phantom. Hard to believe but this is Nolan’s first nomination for direction. I had Martin McDonagh’s work in Three Billboards included. Worth noting: it’s happened, but it’s rare for a movie to win Best Picture without their maker being recognized. This could fuel even more talk that The Shape of Water is the front-runner in the big race.

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: One of the major questions going into this morning is whether recent allegations could prevent James Franco’s nod for The Disaster Artist. We may never know the answer to that fully, but it was expected he’d be a safe inclusion until then and he missed out. In his place – Mr. Washington, nominated for the second year in a row. In short: this is Oldman’s race to lose and it’s highly doubtful he will.

Best Actress

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)

How I Did: 5/5

Analysis: For quite some time, this has seemed like the five for Actress and it panned out that way.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Plummer got in for his highly publicized role after taking over for Kevin Spacey at very short notice over my prediction of Armie Hammer in Call Me by Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: The Phantom love continued with Manville’s inclusion over my prediction for Hong Chau in Downsizing.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: In a bit of a surprise to me, Logan became the first superhero flick to get a writing nomination. I had Wonder in instead.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: I went with I, Tonya over The Big Sick, but this certainly was no shocker. Unlike several prognosticators, I did correctly leave Sick out of the Best Picture race and this marks its sole nod.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: People love that Boss Baby apparently. It got in over my projected The Girl Without Hands. This is an easy winner to predict – Pixar’s Coco. 

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body and Soul, The Square

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: Golden Globe winner In the Fade and Foxtrot (which some saw as a potential winner) missed the cut. In their place: Soul and Square.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Faces Places, Icarus, Last Men in Aleppo, Strong Island

How I Did: 2/5

Analysis: Welp… there always seem to be that category where I whiff and get 2 out of 5 (last year it was Production Design). This year it’s the docs, where Jane (which many saw as a front-runner), City of Ghosts, and Long Strange Trip missed out in favor of Abacus, Aleppo, and Island. 

Best Film Editing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 5/5

Analysis: Besides Actress, this is my only other perfect category.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Rachel Morrison made some Oscar history by becoming the first female nominated in this category for Mudbound. I predicted The Post over Darkest Hour.

Best Production Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Wouldn’t you know it? Here’s one race where I had Phantom Thread in and it didn’t make it. Beauty got in instead.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: I went with Murder on the Orient Express, but Darkest Hour prevailed. This should be a rather easy victory for Phantom (and perhaps its only).

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder

How I Did: 2/3

Analysis: Victoria over I, Tonya. Look for Gary Oldman’s transformation to Churchill in Darkest Hour to be the victor.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: Dunkirk and The Shape of Water were my misses with Guardians and Kong filling in.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: Turns out I should have predicted The Shape of Water in both sound categories. I had War for the Planet of the Apes instead here.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: The sound races matched this year with Star Wars in over my predicted The Greatest Showman.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

How I Did: 3/5

Analysis: I expected John Williams to be recognized, but for The Post instead of Star Wars. Also had Darkest Hour here and not Three Billboards.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, “Remember Me” from Coco, “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

How I Did: 4/5

Analysis: “The Mystery of Love” got in over “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit. 

And that leaves the final official breakdown of films and number of nominations to this:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

8 Nominations

Dunkirk

7 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6 Nominations

Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird

4 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3 Nominations

Baby Driver, I, Tonya

2 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria and Abdul

1 Nomination

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, All the Money in the World, The Big Sick, The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, The Disaster Artist, Faces Places, A Fantastic Woman, Ferdinand, The Florida Project, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Icarus, The Insult, Kong: Skull Island, Last Men in Aleppo, Logan, Loveless, Loving Vincent, Marshall, Molly’s Game, On Body and Soul, Roman J. Israel, Esq., The Square, Strong Island, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder

I’ll have a post up either later tonight or tomorrow with my initial round of predicted winners! Until then…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1WoHu7fPFU&t=1s