The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominees for the Critics Choice Awards today, with the show itself airing January 13. Unlike some precursors, it truly can be a window of what’s to come with Oscar nods… with a significant caveat.
This particular awards ceremony lists six to seven performers and directors in those races. Therefore we know one or two nominees won’t make the cut for the gold statue. As for Best Picture, they do name ten and that’s the highest number the Academy can honor. Critics Choice has a large number of categories, but we shall focus on the top six in today’s analysis and use the last three ceremonies for historical context.
In 2015, all eight Oscar nominated films were named here. In 2016, it was eight of the nine Academy honorees named, with HiddenFigures missing the Critics cut. Last year, it was 8/9 again with PhantomThread as the outlier.
The 10 nominees this year exactly match my current top 10 Oscar possibilities. These selections serve as potential bad news for titles such as CanYouEverForgiveMe?, EighthGrade, FirstReformed, CrazyRichAsians and Widows. If any of them make it in, FirstMan is likely the most vulnerable.
BestDirector
Nominees: Damien Chazelle (FirstMan), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (GreenBook), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)
Three and five and four. Those are the respective number of nominated directors here from 2014-2016 that made the Academy cut.
The story here is the surprising omission of Barry Jenkins for IfBealeStreetCouldTalk. Whether that is a sign of something to come is questionable. Chazelle, Farrelly, and McKay might have helped themselves a bit today.
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Ryan Gosling (FirstMan), Ethan Hawke (FirstReformed), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
2015 saw a five for five match while the last two years have seen four Critics nominees receive Oscar love. As in the previous two races, FirstMan got a boost yet again for the box office disappointment that had previously underwhelmed in precursors. This list not including Robert Redford’s work in TheOldMan & TheGun could mean the end of the road for his potential inclusion.
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Simple math here. Over the past three years, the five women listed for the Best Actress Oscar have all been mentioned here. By the way, the three winners match as well.
This year is crowded for Best Actress (more so than Actor). Today’s nominations could be best news for Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Julia Roberts (BenIsBack), Saoirse Ronan (MaryQueenofScots), and Rosamund Pike (APrivateWar).
As for actual nominees, Aparicio and Collette helped their momentum to potentially dislodge one or two of the others.
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Michael B. Jordan (BlackPanther)
Unlike the last race, 2015 and 2016 saw four Critics recipients here get Academy attention. Last year, it was three. While Jordan helped himself, we could still see Sam Rockwell (Vice) or possibly Nicholas Hoult (TheFavourite) in the mix.
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (FirstMan), Nicole Kidman (BoyErased), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Five for five match three years ago and four for five the last two years. Right now, these six women are my top six Oscar contenders. If there’s a name not here that could sneak in for Academy voters, perhaps it’s Natalie Portman in VoxLux, though it’s weak limited release debut over the past weekend doesn’t help at all.
It never lets up this time of year with Awards prognosticating. SAG nods will be unveiled Wednesday. I’ll have predictions up in short order with reaction up soon after!
We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. First Reformed (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
7. Private Life (PR: 8)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 4)
5. Girl (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 5)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Border (PR: 7)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guilty
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
8. Early Man (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tito and the Birds
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 8)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
9. Science Fair (PR: 10)
10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amazing Grace
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Black Panther (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 8)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
9. Green Book (PR: 7)
10. Widows (PR: 6)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 2)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Roma
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)
8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Gravity” from Free Solo
And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Vice
4 Nominations
Green Book
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 7)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)
9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Reformed (PR: 6)
4. Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)
7. Border (PR: 10)
8. Girl (PR: 4)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)
10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)
7. Early Man (PR: 6)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!
Vice, MaryPoppinsReturns, and MaryQueenofScots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
Barry Jenkins (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (GreenBook). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in FirstReformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate).
Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Vice (PR: 9)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. GreenBook (PR: 3)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mule (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Crazy Rich Asians
A Quiet Place
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
At this year’s AFI Film Festival, there were two high-profile Oscar contenders screening for the first time. A week ago, it was On the Basis of Sex and I believe it lessened its chances at nominations. Last night, it was Mary Queen of Scots and we could have a potential contender on our hands.
The Josie Rourke directed historical drama casts Saoirse Ronan (nominated in 2015 and 2017 in Actress for Brooklyn and Lady Bird) in the title role with Margot Robbie (nominated last year for I, Tonya) as Queen Elizabeth I.
Early reviews suggest it’s a winner and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The critical notices don’t automatically vault it into Best Picture, though I’d say its chances have improved. It may find itself in direct competition for votes with another female led historical film The Favourite, which also has reviews on its side. Scots is expected to play in down the line races like Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
The biggest question mark was the reaction to Ronan and Robbie’s work. Buzz from AFI suggests they could both find themselves in the mix for Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively.
Bottom line: Mary has a brighter outlook for Academy attention based on last night. Expect this to appear on some category lists next Thursday when I update my predictions. My Oscar watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:
Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 12)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)
13. The Mule (PR: 13)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)
15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robert Forster, What They Had
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Leave No Trace
Best Original Screenplay
1. Green Book (PR: 3)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
7. First Reformed (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)
8. Border (PR: 10)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guility
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Early Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Night is Short, Walk on Girl
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Science Fair (PR: 5)
9. Quincy (PR: 10)
10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Price of Everything
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Cold War (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Colette (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Vice (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 9)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
10. Suspiria (PR: 8)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Roma (PR: 4)
8. Suspiria (PR: 9)
9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Colette
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
11 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book
4 Nominations
Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows
1 Nomination
At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap
My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.
So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…
In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.
And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
12. Widows (PR: 10)
13. The Mule (PR: 12)
14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Hate U Give
Cold War
Ben Is Back
Hereditary
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Widows
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)
10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Dianne Wiest, The Mule
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
Disobedience
The Sisters Brothers
The Wife
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
7. First Reformed (PR: 6)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Private Life
Hereditary
Stan and Ollie
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Girl
5. Capernaum
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning
7. Birds of Passage
8. The Guilty
9. Never Look Away
10. Border
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Mirai
5. Ruben Brandt, Collector
Other Possibilities:
6. Lu Over the Wall
7. Early Man
8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Smallfoot
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. Science Fair
Other Possibilities:
6. Minding the Gap
7. Dark Money
8. Crime + Punishment
9. The Price of Everything
10. Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Cold War
Other Possibilities:
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Widows
10. Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born
7. Roma
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
9. Colette
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Colette
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. A Star Is Born
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan and Ollie
5. Vice
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Star Is Born
8. Suspiria
9. Colette
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star Is Born
5. Incredibles 2
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Roma
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Roma
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Annihilation
Other Possibilities
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Quiet Place
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Roma
5. Green Book
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Incredibles 2
8. Colette
9. Suspiria
10. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give
Other Possibilities:
6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born, First Man
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
We have reached my last weekly Oscar predictions posts in the major categories for the month of October. Next week, we will see some big changes in my estimates! For starters, the listing of Best Picture possibilities will be whittled from 25 to 15. All other categories will be slimmed down from 15 possible nominees to just 10. Additionally, beginning next Thursday, I will be listing all races dealing with feature-length films. That means all tech races, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Feature are coming your way for the first time next week.
In the meantime, here’s some developments from last week to this one:
Bohemian Rhapsody, Beautiful Boy, and The Front Runner all fall out the top 25, making room at the bottom of the list for Cold War, Ben Is Back, and Hereditary. My nine predicted Best Picture nominees remain the same. A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade move to their highest rankings yet in 16th and 17th.
In Best Director, John Krasinski has his debut on the listings at #14 for A Quiet Place. The Coen Brothers work in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs falls out.
The mediocre critical reaction for BohemianRhapsody has me greatly questioning whether Rami Malek makes it in Best Actor after all. He drops from 4th to 6th with Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate) now back in the fold.
John C. Reilly returns at #15 for his role in Stan & Ollie in Best Actor, knocking out Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased.
The continued switching between Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn) and Glenn Close (TheWife) goes on with the latter reclaiming the top spot.
Maggie Gyllenhaal makes her first appearance at #13 in Actress for her role as The Kindergarten Teacher, replacing Carey Mulligan (Wildlife).
Mahershala Ali is back at #1 in Supporting Actor over Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), who falls to third behind Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Robert Forster (What They Had) also notches his highest chart placement at #9.
Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Claire Foy (First Man) switch the 2-3 spots in Supporting Actress, with Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) remaining #1.
First Man is back in the top 5 for Adapted Screenplay over Widows.
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 11)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
16. A Quiet Place (PR: 24)
17. Eighth Grade (PR: 20)
18. Boy Erased (PR: 16)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 17)
21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
22. The Hate U Give (PR: 23)
23. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Beautiful Boy
The Front Runner
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
14. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
5. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody(PR: 4)
7. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 8)
11. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: 12)
12. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 12)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 14)
10. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 10)
13. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
14. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 13)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.
While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:
In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).
In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.
For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.
That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.
Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.
So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:
In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:
The Favourite
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Madeline’s Madeline
The River
The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.
In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You
Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.
That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?
Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.
Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight.
So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…
Back at it again with my weekly Thursday predictions in the major categories for this year’s Oscars! Here’s some tidbits about developments over the past week:
Damien Chazelle’s First Man experienced a lackluster liftoff at the box office this past weekend with just $16 million (about $5 million or so below expectations). Will this alter its course for numerous nominations? Short answer: probably not. However, I do have it dropping spots in Picture, Director, and Actor while still predicting nods for all three. Claire Foy remains at #2 behind Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for Supporting Actress.
Speaking of that category, it will finally confirmed this week regarding placement of performers for The Favourite. Olivia Colman will compete in lead Actress with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in Supporting. As I have projected for weeks, I think that bodes well for all three actresses in garnering nods.
Beautiful Boy performed very well in limited release last week and I have vaulted Timothee Chalamet back to the #1 spot in the fluid Supporting Actor race.
And with that – here’s where I think Oscar standings are at this moment in time…
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. First Man (PR: 3)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)
16. Boy Erased (PR: 14)
17. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)
21. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 25)
22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)
23. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
At Eternity’s Gate
The Sisters Brothers
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 13)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 11)
11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
12. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 15)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 11)
11. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)
12. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)
13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 14)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Keira Knightley, Colette
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
13. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Bradley Cooper, The Mule
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
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