Oscar Predictions: My Father’s Shadow

Nigerian family drama My Father’s Shadow has been playing the festival circuit for months beginning at Cannes and continuing to Toronto. It marks the directorial debut of Akinola Davies Jr. and stars Sope Dirisu with Godwin Chiemerie Egbo and Chibuike Marvellous Egbo as his sons. The United Kingdom has submitted it as the hopeful for Best International Feature Film.

The Brits may have chosen wisely. Shadow is receiving early kudos from other awards bodies. It was given a special award for its first-time filmmaker at Cannes. At the British Independent Film Awards, it was up in 12 categories and won Best Director. And tonight at the Gothams, it went 2 for 2 with Breakthrough Director and a surprise victory for Dirisu for Outstanding Lead Performance.

After a streak in which none of their 21st century submitted features made the cut in the international race, the UK took top honors two years ago for The Zone of Interest. Last year, Santosh made the shortlist but not the final quintet. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 85 Metacritic, Shadow could be gathering buzz at the right time.

Some key caveats as the aforementioned ceremonies aren’t exactly reliable Oscar precursors. There’s also the matter of IFF being quite crowded with more high-profile titles including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident (which also received some Gotham love), The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. However, if Shadow makes this year’s shortlist, it could be a trendy pick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

BEST FILM

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Predicted Winner: Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Predicted Winner: No Other Land

Runner-Up: Daughters

BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

BEST CASTING

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST EDITING

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: The Substance

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST SOUND

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Better Man

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Kneecap

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

Predicted Winner: Kneecap

Runner-Up: Santosh

Best Children’s & Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

EE Rising Star Award

Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

5 Wins

Conclave

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 4/5

I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

How I Did: 9/10

I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

How I Did: 2/5

Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 4/5

I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

Animated Film

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 5/6

I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is where Anora could get a prize.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 4/5

Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

How I Did: 5/6

I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 4/6

Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

Casting

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

How I Did: 2/5

This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

How I Did: 4/5

Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

Costume Design

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

Editing

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

How I Did: 3/5

Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

Make-Up and Hair

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

Original Score

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

Sound

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

Special Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…

78th BAFTA Awards Nomination Predictions

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.

Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – A Complete Unknown

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Alternate – Wicked Little Letters

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango

Alternate – Monkey Man

Best Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Alternate – Piece by Piece

Best Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera

Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Alternate – Inside Out 2

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Alternate – All We Imagine as Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked

Alternate – Sing Sing

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)

Best Supporting Actress

Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

Best Casting

Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Alternate – Kneecap

Best Cinematography

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu

Alternate – Emilia Pérez

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Alternate – Blitz

Best Editing

Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Alternate – Emilia Pérez

Best Original Score

Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

Alternate – Wicked

Best Production Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Alternate – The Brutalist

Best Special Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Alternate – Wicked

Best Sound

Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Alternate – The Substance

That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Conclave

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

Gladiator II

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

2 Nominations

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea

2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.

Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?

Best International Feature Film

Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves

There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper

Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.

Best Original Score

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.

Best Original Song

Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz

The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked

In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.

Best Sound

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).

Best Visual Effects

Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked

I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.

Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).