Box Office Results: October 18-20

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity held the top spot at the box office for the third weekend in a row as three new films posted disappointing results. The space thriller with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney continues to capture audiences as it took in $30 million in week 3. This is right there with my $29.7M projection. Gravity has grossed an astonishing $170 million so far and still has $300 million in its sights.

In its second weekend, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks slid a fairly modest 35% for a $16.7 million gross, below my $18.5M projection. The Somali pirate saga is on pace to  cross the century mark and be Hanks’s highest live-action earner in four years since 2009’s Angels and Demons. 

Opening with less than expected numbers in third place is the horror remake Carrie. The update of 1976’s Brian De Palma’s classic grossed $16.3 million, well below my $22.4M estimate. On top of its lackluster debut, horror flicks tend to suffer large drop-offs in subsequent weekend so the future looks rather bleak for this one.

The animated sequel Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 continues to hang around in the top five as it made $10 million for the four spot. This is right on pace with my $9.3M projection.

Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger saw their action fest Escape Plan open right on target with most projections in fifth place with a so-so $9.6 million, just below my $10.1M estimate. Clearly the two stars are no longer the draw they were in the 80s and 90s, but the pic did outdo the action stars solo entries from earlier this year The Last Stand and Bullet to the Head.

Finally, the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate starring Benedict Cumberbatch had a terrible opening with only $1.7 million, well under my what I thought was a modest $5.8M projection. The pic received many negative reviews and audiences simply ignored it.

That’s all for now, my friends. I’ll have predictions posts up later today for next weekend’s newbies, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and The Counselor soon enough!

The Heat Movie Review

Paul Feig’s The Heat answers the question as to whether a picture can simply coast on the charms of its personable leading ladies Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. That answer, for the most part, is yes. This buddy cop comedy displays all the hallmarks of the genre with the notable exception of said cops being female. We’ve had countless examples of male-driven movies in this category from Lethal Weapon to Bad Boys to Rush Hour to The Other Guys and so forth. As far as I can recall, there’s more examples of male cop/dog cop genre pics than straight up female buddy cop entries. Only 1988’s long-forgotten Feds with Rebecca DeMornay and Mary Gross springs to mind.

Bridesmaids director Feig changes that here and enlists some big stars to headline it. Bullock plays Sarah Ashburn, the uptight FBI agent forced to team up with foul-mouthed and streetwise Boston cop Mullins (McCarthy). Both think their brand of law enforcement is the best method and they’re naturally diametrically opposed… so let the hijinks ensue!

There’s really nothing about the plot that separates The Heat from its counterparts in the genre. Let’s face it – it’s pretty tough to bring much new to the buddy cop flick. That’s where Bullock and McCarthy are able to make this fairly worthwhile. The duo is chasing after a group of drug runners and there’s a mole either in the FBI or Boston PD that they’re trying to nab. All this plot stuff is incidental, however.

McCarthy exploded onto the movie scene with her Oscar-nominated turn in 2011’s Bridesmaids. She deserved the nomination and I’ve used one particular scene in that pic with Kristin Wiig as an example of Movie Perfection previously on the blog.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/04/21/movie-perfection-melissa-mccarthy-becomes-a-movie-star/

Here McCarthy is given some humorous scenes with her dysfunctional family who haven’t forgiven her for sending her own criminal brother (Michael Rapaport) to the slammer.

Yet it’s the chemistry of the two stars that makes or breaks The Heat and Bullock does a commendable job as the straight woman. Throughout her career, Bullock has shown a keen ability with dramas and comedy. This film gives her the opportunity to show those chops in something other than a rom com.

There’s a whole lotta familiar territory to find here. Since Agent Ashburn is the tightly wound cop, it’s up to Mullins to get her drunk and they’re eventually getting the whole bar to dance to Deee-Lite’s “Groove Is In The Heart”. Ashburn’s loner personality is explained because – well, she was a foster child (of course). The ladies learn that the old trick of holding a suspect over a balcony doesn’t always go as planned.

Bullock and McCarthy, though, have a winning chemistry and they manage to often rise above the cliched material and allow The Heat to be a mildly entertaining experience. Their fans should be mostly pleased. This isn’t like the previously mentioned The Other Guys that both satirizes the genre while also being an entry in it. That pic worked much better because audiences know all the tricks of buddy cop pics and The Other Guys had fun with it. The Heat is more safe and serviceable. And the two leads do just enough to make it tolerable.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: October 18-20

The horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate all join the box office fray this weekend. You can find my predictions on all three at these links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Will any of them have any enough firepower to unseat Gravity from the #1 spot? As I see it, only Carrie stands a chance. However, I’m only putting it at a low 20s opening and that should not be enough to keep Alfonso Cuaron’s space phenomenon from the #1 perch for a third weekend. Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks scored a solid $25 million opening this past weekend and with an A Cinemascore grade, its second weekend decline should be small.

Based on my prediction for The Fifth Estate, it should open at #6 while Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 stays in the top five. And, with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

2. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 28%)

4. Escape Plan

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

I’ll have an update posted Saturday on the blog’s Facebook page with a final report Sunday on the blog!

Box Office Results: October 11-13

Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.

Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.

In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.

Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.

In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.

Trailer Park: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Butler

This evening I bring you a new feature on the blog called Trailer Park, in which I’ll review the trailers for upcoming movies that have recently debuted. With the summer movie season freshly upon us, we’re likely to see a nice helping of trailers for pictures coming out this fall and even next summer. I’ll try to do a new Trailer Park posting every week, at least. I realize there’s probably oodles of movie bloggers like myself who also call their coming attractions posts Trailer Park, but hey – it’s a catchy name and you don’t always have to be original.

So what’s my criteria for grading a trailer? Simple. Does the trailer make me more or less likely to wanna watch the featured title? That’s pretty much it. Two recent examples: the most recent trailer for June’s Superman epic Man of Steel was a masterpiece. I went from really wanting to see it to dying to see it right away. Seriously, it’s one of the most effective trailers in a loooong time.

On the flip side, there’s R.I.P.D., coming in July. When I first heard about the movie, I thought “Sci-fi action comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds?” Sure, why not? Then I saw the trailer, in which it looks like a third-rate Men in Black knock-off with terrible special effects. Jeff Bridges has got to be receiving better offers than this!

This inaugural Trailer Park post grade three titles from Oscar-nominated directors. All three pictures are in the early running for awards consideration. How do their trailers measure up?

We begin with Captain Phillips. Paul Greengrass, director of The Bourne Supremacy, The Bourne Ultimatum, and United 93 brings us this true life thriller based on the Somali pirate hostage crisis of 2009. The title character is played by Tom Hanks. Judging from the preview, we may just have the actor’s first real awards-worthy role since Cast Away over 12 years ago. Hanks is also sporting his New England Catch Me If You Can accent here. The subject matter coupled with what appears to be the perfect director doing the material bodes well. The trailer for Captain Phillips is terrific. Grade: A

Alfonso Cuaron is the brilliant director behind Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, and Children of Men. It’s been seven long years since Children and film lovers have been eager to see what this visual genius comes up with next. The answer is Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney as astronauts whose mission goes horribly wrong. This is definitely more of a teaser than full trailer, but there’s just enough there to let us know this will be a feast for the eyes, as are all of Cuaron’s efforts. I can’t wait to see a full trailer, but the final shot of Bullock barreling helplessly into space earns Gravity a B+ trailer grade.

Lee Daniels receive a Best Director nomination for his unexpected hit Precious and followed it up with last year’s critically panned The Paperboy. His latest feature, The Butler, tells the true life story of an African-American White House butler (Forest Whitaker) who served from the Eisenhower to Reagan administrations. From the Weinstein Company (they know how to get movies noticed by Oscar), The Butler looks tailor-made for Academy consideration. Another selling point: this is Oprah Winfrey’s first major film role in 15 years. I must admit, however, I’m not wild about the trailer. There seems to be almost too much information they’re trying to pack into it. And the brief glimpses of well-known actors playing the First Family – Robin Williams as Ike, John Cusack as Nixon, Liev Schrieber as LBJ, Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan, and Severus Snape as Ronald Reagan – are somewhat distracting. The Butler may turn out to be a great and inspiring picture, but the trailer is a tad underwhelming and only merits a B- Trailer grade.

So there you have it – my first crack at grading trailers. I’ll be back for more next week!

2013 Comedy Summer Movie Preview: Vaughn&Wilson, McCarthy, Rogen, and Wiig

Every summer, we usually see a major breakout comedy that connects with audiences across the board. Last season, it was Ted which earned $218 million. In 2011, it was The Hangover Part II with $254 million, as well as Bridesmaids ($169M) and Horrible Bosses ($119M). In 2010, Grown Ups brought in $162 million. In 2009, the original Hangover grossed $277 million and The Proposal made $163 million.

This summer, there’s no shortage of contenders. The comedy winner could be The Hangover Part III and that film was already covered in my sequels blog post. However, that film faces serious challengers, particularly from two titles:

From Bridesmaids director Paul Feig comes The Heat, a buddy cop comedy starring Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. This is Bullock’s first headlining role since her Oscar winning turn in The Blind Side. Added to that, McCarthy is a hot commodity right now with her spring comedy Identity Thief well exceeding analysts expectations. The Heat could easily post Bridesmaids size numbers when it opens June 28th.

We also have The Internship, which reteams Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. Their first collaboration was, of course, Wedding Crashers. That came out in the summer of 2005 and grossed an astonishing $209 million. If The Internship delivers, it could be a real factor in the top comedy discussions. It’s out on June 7th.

These three titles are likely to have a healthy competition for the top spot (Grown Ups 2 is probably poised to earn between $100-$125 million and has also been covered in my sequels write-up).

There are plenty of other comedies that will attempt to bring crowds in. Two high-profile entries have yet to release a trailer: the road trip flick We’re the Millers (August 9) with Jason Sudeikis and Jennifer Aniston and Girl Most Likely (July 19), which brings us Kristin Wiig’s first starring role since Bridesmaids. 

Then we have This is the End (June 12), which has Jonah Hill, James Franco, Seth Rogen, Danny McBride, Michael Cera, and others playing themselves in an end of the world scenario. The trailers are pretty damn funny and I’m particularly looking forward to this one. End could be a major breakout player if it’s as funny as its potential suggests.

The Tyler Perry factory brings us Peeples (May 10) starring the very funny Craig Robinson, who also is featued in This is the End. It basically looks like the Tyler Perry version of Meet the Parents, which his name alone will likely mean solid grosses.

The coming of age flick The Way, Way Back (July 5) with Steve Carell received rave reviews at Sundance and is being looked at as a potential sleeper hit.

And Woody Allen brings us his movie a year with Blue Jasmine (July 26) with Cate Blanchett and Alec Baldwin. Two years ago, Woody had an unexpected hit with Midnight in Paris. However, last summer his To Rome with Love tanked. No trailer is available at press time.

All in all, there are plenty of comedies to choose from this summer. If some Hangover fatigue occurs (something which I believe is possible), don’t be surprised to see Bullock and McCarthy as the comedy champions of the season.