Oscar Predictions: Emmanuelle

Adapting the 1967 novel by Emmanuelle Arsan and arriving 50 years after the first cinematic rendering of the adult romance source material, Emmanuelle is the opening selection of the San Sebastián International Film Festival. It is Audrey Diwan’s follow-up to 2021’s Happening which won the Golden Lion at the 2021 Venice Film Festival. Noémie Merlant, Naomi Watts, Will Sharpe, and Jamie Campbell Bower lead the cast.

Following the fest premiere, Emmanuelle hits French screens later this week. The reviews trickling out of Spain are lukewarm. There was some intrigue about which movie France would pick as its hopeful for International Feature Film. The speculation centered on Emilia Pérez and The Count of Monte Cristo with Emmanuelle seen as a dark horse. Pérez ended up as their choice. Based on the early buzz for this, it’s easy to see why this was not a viable option. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Supernova

A pair of actors with Oscar history headline the British drama Supernova, which premiered at the San Sebastian International Film Festival earlier this week. Colin Firth (Best Actor winner ten years ago for The King’s Speech) and Stanley Tucci (2009 Supporting Actor nominee for The Lovely Bones) star as a couple traveling England after Tucci’s character has been diagnosed with dementia. Harry Macqueen directs.

Early reviews are mostly positive with an 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Unsurprisingly, the work of the leads is being praised. However, the critical reaction doesn’t appear strong enough for Supernova to be an awards contender despite Firth and Tucci’s credibility.

Another title with similar themes – Florian Zeller’s The Father – is likely to garner nods. I currently have it predicted in Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Anthony Hopkins), and Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman).

Distributor StudioCanal would need to mount an impressive campaign for Supernova to get on the radar screen and I have my doubts. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…