Oscar Predictions: Mean Girls

Mean Girls, out tomorrow, is based on the Broadway musical based on a movie that’s originally based on a book. In that sense, it’s much like current Oscar contender The Color Purple. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. make their directorial debut with Tina Fey returning to costar and write the screenplay. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Busy Philips, Tim Meadows, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park.

The 2004 pic was a box office and critical success (84% RT) that has endured over the past two decades. Reviews for this aren’t as strong, but they’re decent at 71% on the Tomato meter.

Original Song is the only race where this stands any chance at Academy recognition. I doubt the memory of this version will endure long enough for voters to remember them. Since it’s a musical, the Globes could honor it in Musical/Comedy, but the same logic applies there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction

Arriving nearly 20 years after its source material was a critical and commercial success, Mean Girls looks to fetch profitable results for Paramount when it debuts January 12th. The musical comedy is based on the Broadway show that resulted from the 2004 film. Tina Fey writes the screenplay (as she did for both preceding projects) and reprises her role from the original (alongside Principal Tim Meadows). New cast members include Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Bijou Philipps, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. are behind the camera for their directorial debuts.

In the spring of 2004, Mean Girls grossed an impressive $86 million domestically and $130 million total worldwide. Its popularity has endured in the following two decades. OG MG’s Lindsay Lohan, Amanda Seyfried, and Lacey Chabert (minus Rachel McAdams) recently reunited for a Walmart ad. Fans of that version and more (especially an anticipated large female audience) should turn out. Once slated for a Paramount+ bow, the studio reportedly changed their minds after encouraging screenings.

That should prove to be a wise move. Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Girls is anticipated to generate a four-day start in at least the mid to possibly high 20s. I think it will that range is about right.

Mean Girls opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Beekeeper prediction, click here:

For my The Book of Clarence prediction, click here: