Tag: Sam Worthington

Oscar Predictions – Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.

The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.

When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.

Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.

What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction

Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.

Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.

Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.

Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.

Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million

For my David prediction, click here:

David Box Office Prediction

For my The Housemaid prediction, click here:

The Housemaid Box Office Prediction

For my The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants prediction, click here:

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.

This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.

The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll say this return engagement still manages mid single digits.

Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Good Boy prediction, click here:

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Relay

David Mackenzie’s Relay was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival a year ago and is finally running theatrically this weekend. Riz Ahmed (best actor nominee for 2020’s Sound of Metal), Lily James, and Sam Worthington headline the thriller with Bleecker Street handling distribution.

In 2016, Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water nabbed numerous Academy noms including Best Picture. He’s since followed up with 2019’s Outlaw King and has heist flick Fuze slated for this year’s Toronto Film Festival.

Reviews for Relay are mostly satisfactory with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic. They’re not high enough for awards consideration and Bleecker is not exactly a force when it comes to campaigning anyway. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was a critical and commercial disappointment when it opened in late June following its Cannes premiere in May. Kevin Costner’s epic western underwhelmed enough so that part 2’s release plan is undetermined (though it’s still expected to be out by year’s end). The second chapter of a planned four (part 3’s principal photography is underway) has also debuted in Europe via the Venice fest. The director/cowriter headlines a cast that includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Danny Huston, Jena Malone, Ella Hunt, Will Patton, Luke Wilson, Isabelle Fuhrman, Thomas Haden Church, Glynn Turman, and Kathleen Quinlan.

Initial word-of-mouth is that while Chapter 2 is a slight improvement, don’t get your hopes too high. In other words, awards voters are not likely to get their sights on either 2024 Horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros is hoping Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 is more Dances with Wolves, less The Postman when it comes to Kevin Costner’s behind the camera filmography. The three-hour Western epic is the first of four planned sagas with Chapter 2 slated for mid-August and part 3 shooting. Costner, who has experienced a recent career resurgence thanks to Yellowstone on the small screen, also stars and co-scripts. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Michael Rooker, Danny Huston, Luke Wilson, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, Will Patton, Tatanka Means, Owen Crow Shoe, Ella Hunt, Jamie Campbell Bower, and Thomas Haden Church.

A May premiere at Cannes yielded shaky buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 43%. There is no doubt that Horizon is a risky summer proposition. Costner apparently financed the bulk of the project himself.

I do think the Yellowstone exposure could cause this to surprise with a better than expected turnout of older viewers. A best case scenario might be a kickoff in the high teens to low 20s. I’ll hedge my bets and go with low to mid teens.

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Exorcism looks to quench the moviegoing public’s thirst for mixing Russell Crowe with demonic possessions on June 21st. The horror flick arrives only a year behind the lead playing The Pope’s Exorcist. Those two pics aren’t related as Joshua John Miller directs with a supporting cast including Ryan Simpkins, Sam Worthington, Chloe Bailey, Adam Goldberg, Adrian Padsar, and David Hyde Pierce.

In April of 2023, The Pope’s Exorcist managed to open at the higher end of its expected range with a little over $9 million and an eventual $20 million gross. It is fair to wonder if genre enthusiasts are pining for another helping of its star and subject matter.

Scary movies have struggled in 2024 and this might need divine intervention to exceed $10 million for its start. I doubt it will.

The Exorcism opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Bikeriders prediction, click here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One

When it comes to Academy possibilities for Kevin Costner’s latest directorial epic, think The Postman more than Dances with Wolves. The latter from 1990 was up for 12 Oscars and took home 7 including Picture and Director. The former was a flop at multiplexes and on the awards circuit.

His latest is Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One and it has premiered at Cannes ahead of its June 28th theatrical bow. The Western is not only directed by Costner, but he stars and cowrites what is a mostly self-financed project. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Danny Huston, Duval Branch, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Jamie Campbell Bower, Owen Crow Shoe, Tatanka Means, Luke Wilson, Ella Hunt, Will Patton, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, and Thomas Haden Church.

I kind of thought Cannes seemed like an odd launch pad for the Yellowstone lead’s first behind the camera big screen production since 2003’s Open Range. Critics have not been kind as evidenced by the 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

I’m not sure how much the reviews will hurt its commercial prospects. This could be effective adult counter programming in the summer months and Costner’s visibility from his hit show won’t hurt. Chapter 2 will follow in mid-August. Who knows? Maybe it will garner better notices from cinematic pundits. You can close the book on any Oscar buzz for this first chapter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water

My Case Of posts where I serve as the defense for and prosecution against the Best Picture, Director, and four acting competition hopefuls arrives at our second contender in the biggest race of all. That’s Avatar: The Way of Water, James Cameron’s long-in-development sequel to 2009’s 3D game changer.

The Case for Avatar: The Way of Water:

If the Academy wants to honor the highest grossing worldwide pic of the bunch, this is your movie. Cameron’s follow-up just surpassed $2 billion at the global box office and has ruled the domestic box office for seven weeks running.

The Case Against Avatar: The Way of Water:

If the Academy wants to honor the highest grossing domestic pic of the bunch, Top Gun: Maverick is their movie. It’s the sequel that had the best nominations haul on Oscar noms morning. Water‘s four overall mentions are less than half of the nine achieved by the original 13 years ago. It won three – Art Direction (now Production Design), Cinematography, and Visual Effects. This one seems destined for a sole victory. Cameron couldn’t make the final five for his direction (he did get a Globes nod) and editing is another significant omission.

Other Nominations:

Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

The Verdict:

That likely win is in Visual Effects. With the aforementioned whiffs in direction and editing and the less than impressive haul (compared to part 1), Water was pretty fortunate to make the cut at all.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed my posts covering the other BP contenders, click here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness

Avatar: The Way of Water Review

Avatar: The Way of Water is both visually sparkling and narratively flat. In that sense, James Cameron’s sequel is much like the 2009 original (which happens to be worldwide highest grosser in history). The effects thirteen years ago were revolutionary and kicked off a mostly unfortunate trend of tentpoles getting the three-dimensional treatment. That sense of wonder from Avatar is present occasionally below the surface in a few astounding underwater sequences. Many blockbusters have competed with this franchise in visual splendor and come up short and that includes some shoddy MCU battles. Cameron and his crew can still wow, but subpar writing and a lack of tight editing remains a problem. If you loved the forests of Pandora in part 1 and didn’t want to leave, you’ll likely love lounging in the aquatic action of this follow-up. If your feelings were mixed like mine were, expect a similar reaction.

Former Marine Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Na’vi spiritual leader in waiting Neytiri (Zoe Saldana) are married with four kids as Water begins (it’s set a decade and a half plus post Avatar). Adopted teenage daughter Kiri (voiced by Sigourney Weaver) is miraculously spawned from Sigourney’s scientist in the original. We suspect she might have special powers if she can get over her Jan Brady lot in life. Older brother Neteyam (Jamie Flatters) is the responsible one while second born boy Lo’ak (Britain Dalton) is the rebel. Youngest girl Tuk (Trinity Jo-Li Bliss) is eight and precocious. The Sully tribe are living a peaceful existence until those mean corporate Earthlings return to Pandora. On their list of plays is total colonization as the home planet is dying.

Due to a memory implant system, Stephen Lang’s villainous Colonel is leading the charge in the guise of a Na’vi big blue boy. He has revenge on his mind since it was Neytiri who arrowed him to death years ago. There’s also a son he left behind that the Sully’s are raising who goes by Spider (Jack Champion). Clad in a loincloth, his character comes off as a cartoonish plot device. He’s got about as much depth as Bam Bam Rubble. The dynamic between Spider and his father is one of a few daddy issues happening. I half expected a sky complected Maury Povich to interrupt and start moderating.

Since Jake is being targeted for his skill in fighting off the Sky People, he relocates his brood to the tropical island of At’wa Attu. They feel out of place among the residents who spend much of their day submerged. The chief of their clan known as the Metkayina is Tonwari (Cliff Curtis). He and his pregnant wife Ronal (Kate Winslet) are skeptical about harboring their guests. It’s in and around the island where some memorable moments happen. The Metkayina share a spiritual connection with the giant mammals swimming below. Lo’ak befriends one of them and it’s a subplot that clicks.

Part 2 relegates Jake and Neytiri to the sidelines for much of its three hours and 12 minutes. A larger focus is on their offspring and how they feel like fish out of water. The filmmaker’s own well-documented fascination with the deep comes in handy with the whale tale portions and beyond. The bulk of its themes, on the other hand, are heavily borrowed from before. Cameron and his tech wizards can enthrall us and exasperate us in this new habitat that questions our humanity.

*** (out of four)