In my blog series laying out the cases for and against the Oscar nominees in major categories, we arrive at the third picture for consideration. That would be Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit. If you missed the first two posts covering Ford v Ferrari and The Irishman, you can find them here:
Viewers who like Jojo REALLY like it. With confusion regarding which handful of contenders like 1917, Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker, or The Irishman might win, Jojo could nab enough first place votes to sneak in. The satire that blends wild comedy with pathos is certainly unique and it even has comedy legend Mel Brook singing its praises. Taika Waititi is one of the hottest directors of the moment as he followed up Thor: Ragnarok with this and is now attached to an Akira remake and future Star Wars projects.
The Case Against Jojo Rabbit
Despite Waititi’s popularity, he missed out on a Best Director nomination. He was nominated by the Directors Guild. It’s very rare for the Best Picture winner to not have its maker named in the directing final five. That said, it has happened twice this decade with Argo/Ben Affleck and Green Book/Peter Farrelly. There are box office heavy hitters aplenty in the final nine this year and Jojo isn’t one of them with $22 million currently stateside. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is also on the low end of the scale.
The Verdict
There’s no doubt that Jojo winning would be a major upset, though I would say it’s got the best chance of the pictures where the director isn’t nominated. That still doesn’t change the fact that it would rank 6th of out 9. Still, it’s a wide open year…
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 15)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Knives Out (PR: 12)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
Clint Eastwood continues to churn out film after film and his latest, Richard Jewell, keeps with his recent theme of fact based dramas recounting events of the past quarter century. Paul Walter Hauser (memorable in supporting roles in I, Tonya and BlacKkKlansman) stars in the title role of the security guard falsely accused of the 1996 Centennial Olympic Park bombing. Costars include Sam Rockwell, Kathy Bates, Jon Hamm, and Olivia Wilde.
Jewell looks to bring in an adult audience amidst Christmas fare geared towards family crowds. With Eastwood at the helm, it could succeed. The director’s previous work, The Mule, debuted over the same mid December weekend last year to $17.5 million. Critics are mostly on his side here with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 88% and some awards chatter.
That said, I don’t believe Jewell will nab Mule numbers right away (it helped that Eastwood starred in the latter). This will hope to leg out as many grownup dramas do over subsequent holiday weekends. For its start, I believe low double digits to possibly low teens sounds about right.
Richard Jewell opening weekend prediction: $11 million
For my Jumanji: The Next Level prediction, click here:
Few directors have made two Best Picture Oscar winners, but Clint Eastwood did that with 1992’s Unforgiven and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. The latter came along late in the year and shifted the conversation 15 years ago. So anytime Mr. Eastwood screens a potential contender in time for Academy consideration, it’s time to take notice. The AFI Film Festival premiered Richard Jewell last night and the biographical drama centers on the title character who was falsely accused of the 1996 Olympic Park bombing in Atlanta.
So what’s the verdict? Jewell is sporting an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far, but critical reaction brings a question mark as to its viability. While some reviews indicate it could very well contend, others are a little more mixed.
Eastwood filmed his last nominee five years back with the massive hit American Sniper. Since then, his filmography of Sully, The 15:17 to Paris, and The Mule has garnered scant awards attention (save for a Sound Editing nod for Sully).
Chatter has focused on three performances. Paul Walter Hauser, memorable in supporting roles in I, Tonya and BlacKkKlansman, is garnering raves. Yet Best Actor is fiercely competitive in 2019. In my weekly predictions, he hasn’t been in the top ten as I’ve waited for reaction to come. I honestly feel all ten of my current possibilities could get in. Hauser will really need to gather momentum for any shot. It’s doable, but I feel it would be more doable in a different year.
The same can be said for Sam Rockwell as Jewell’s lawyer. Two years ago, the actor won Supporting Actor for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Last year, he was nominated again as George W. Bush in Vice. It would be a quite a story for him to get nods three years in a row. Like Hauser’s category, Supporting Actor is also chock full of contenders. I’m a bit skeptical he makes it as he might also split his own votes for his work in Jojo Rabbit.
It could be Kathy Bates that manages to get in playing Jewell’s mother. That’s because Supporting Actress is not quite as packed as the races of her costars. Nearly three decades have passed since she won Best Actress for Misery. Bates has received two Supporting Actress recognitions since in 1998’s Primary Colors and 2002’s About Schmidt.
So… how about the film itself and Eastwood? It’s certainly feasible that it nabs a Picture nomination, but it’s definitely an on the bubble candidate. Due to that, I’m not sure Eastwood can make the final five. He’ll just have to rest on his already considerable mantelpiece.
Bottom line: Richard Jewell put itself in the mix at AFI, but there’s also a chance it comes up empty handed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
This afternoon, the nominations for the 35th Independent Spirit Awards were released as we prepare for the onslaught of Oscar precursors to follow. And make no mistake – the Indie Spirits are indeed a precursor. In this decade from 2010-2018, five of the nine Best Feature winners emerged victorious with the Academy for Best Picture: 2011’s The Artist, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2014’s Birdman, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2016’s Moonlight. Some of these years have three or four of the five nominees get Oscar nods in the big race.
However, 2018 marked the first year of this decade when none of the five nominated pictures at the Indies garnered any Academy love. I don’t expect that to occur for a second year in a row.
In this post, I’ll break down Feature, Director, and the four acting races and what it might mean for Oscar:
Best Feature
Nominees: A Hidden Life, Clemency, The Farewell, Marriage Story, Uncut Gems
First things first: Marriage Story is going to get a Best Picture nomination and probably wins here. And it might be the only one here that does. The Farewell has a decent shot and Uncut Gems is a potential sleeper (though I wouldn’t bet on it).
That said, Gems did tie The Lighthouse for most Indie mentions (5). And that brings us back to Marriage Story. The voters here chose to give it a special Robert Altman award honoring the team behind it. That includes cast members Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Laura Dern, and Alan Alda. They all probably would’ve heard their names here had that not occurred and same goes for director Noah Baumbach. If that seems like a bit of a cheat (taking out probable winners like Driver and Baumbach), I wouldn’t argue. The silver lining is that it does make some of these categories more interesting.
Best Director
Nominees: Robert Eggers (The Lighthouse), Alma Hor’el (Honey Boy), Julius Onah (Luce), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)
Like Best Feature, 2018 saw no directors recognized get Academy attention. With Baumbach getting his Altman award and out of the running, that could certainly happen again as I don’t even have any of these directors in my top ten Oscar possibilities. Perhaps this could help spur chatter for the Safdies or Scafaria. Again… I wouldn’t bet on it.
Best Female Lead
Nominees: Karen Allen (Colewell), Hong Chau (Driveways), Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Six out of nine winners here from 2010-2018 went onto win the Best Actress statue: Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Brie Larson (Room), and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
Even with Johansson not included, it could be 7/10 as Zellweger is my current Oscar front runner. Woodard and Moss stand shots at nods. The other three need not shop for red carpet dresses.
One noticeable omission is Awkwafina in The Farewell, who many are predicting for Oscar attention. I currently had her on the outside looking in at sixth. That could slide when I update my estimates on Monday.
Best Male Lead
Nominees: Chris Galust (Give Me Liberty), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Luce), Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Matthias Schoenarts (The Mustang)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) are the three Indie/Oscar recipients. Only in 2015 and (yes) 2018 did no nominees get Oscar nods…
I expect that to occur again. I believe only Sandler stands a chance, but it’s a reach based on severe competition.
Best Supporting Female
Nominees: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Taylor Russell (Waves), Lauren Spencer (Give Me Liberty), Octavia Spencer (Luce), Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
Four winners here have picked up Academy trophies – Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), and the past two winners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk).
With soft front runner Laura Dern in the Marriage Story special category thing, we could still see a third year in a row match with Lopez. Zhou and Spencer (to a lesser degree) may also find themselves in the Oscar mix.
And with Taylor Russell’s nod here, it’s a good time to mention that Waves really came up short with the Indies today. That doesn’t help its Oscar viability.
Best Supporting Male
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy), Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), Wendell Pierce (Burning Cane)
This category is another ultra crowded one for Oscar attention, but Dafoe and LaBeouf are legit contenders for nods. Not so with the other three. The omission of Sterling K. Brown in Waves is a surprise.
There have been four Indie/Oscar victors this decade: Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). With Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) as likely favorites for the Academy, I wouldn’t expect a fifth match.
And there you have it, folks! My take on the Indies and which Oscar gems they could produce…
My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.
For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:
Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 18)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 8)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
14. Waves (PR: 13)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Judy
Just Mercy
A Hidden Life
Rocketman
The Report
Booksmart
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Ad Astra
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Todd Phillips, Joker
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)
4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Hustlers
Toy Story 4
Luce
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Waves (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
9. Booksmart (PR: 9)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Report
Honey Boy
Dolemite Is My Name
Knives Out
Rocketman
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Atlantics
4. Les Miserables
5. Monos
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained
7. Beanpole
8. And Then We Danced
9. Papicha
10. The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Missing Link
5. Weathering with You
Other Possibilities:
6. I Lost My Body
7. Abominable
8. Klaus
9. Funan
10. Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. Maiden
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm
7. The Edge of Democracy
8. Aquarela
9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
10. Knock Down the House
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Lighthouse
OtherPossibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Marriage Story
9. Joker
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Downton Abbey
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Rocketman
OtherPossibilities:
6. Judy
7. The Irishman
8. Aladdin
9. 1917
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Marriage Story
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Joker
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
10. Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Bombshell
3. Judy
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. The Aeronauts
9. Rocketman
10. Cats
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Jojo Rabbit
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. A Hidden Life
9. Joker
10. Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet
4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King
8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Cats
7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Aladdin
10. Downton Abbey
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Avengers: Endgame
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. The Irishman
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. Cats
10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Ad Astra
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame
7. Cats
8. The Irishman
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10. The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Alita: Battle Angel
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Gemini Man
8. Ad Astra
9. 1917
10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
The Farewell, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You
The Joker went wild at the box office over the weekend, easily setting the all-time October opening record. Let’s see how the rest of awards season plays out, but the film has now entered back into my predictions for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. In the big race, that knocks out A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which made its inaugural appearance in the top ten last Thursday. In other developments:
In Actress, the five spot continues to change back and forth. For this week, Awkwafina is in with Alfre Woodard just outside.
In Supporting Actress, Laura Dern goes back to the #1 slot over Jennifer Lopez.
The other races remain the same with some positions jockeying around. So here’s the big announcement…
Next Thursday, I will be including all categories covering feature length films for the first time. The list of Picture possibilities will dwindle from 25 to 15 with all other races going down to ten. Stay tuned!!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 7)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
6. Parasite (PR: 5
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. The Farewell (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Joker (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 10)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. Waves (PR: 13)
14. Pain and Glory (PR: 15)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 19)
16. Judy (PR: 17)
17. Just Mercy (PR: 14)
18. Bombshell (PR: 20)
19. A Hidden Life (PR: 16)
20. Rocketman (PR: 24)
21. The Report (PR: 21)
22. Booksmart (PR: 18)
23. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Dark Waters (PR: 22)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)
13. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 9)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trey Edward Shults, Waves
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: 11)
11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)
12. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)
14. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)
15. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Stewart, Seberg
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
10. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
11. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 12)
12. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
14. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)
15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 1)
3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 11)
11. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)
12. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)
13. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 10)
14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 14)
15. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 11)
12. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 13)
13. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 12)
14. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)
15. Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon (PR: Not Ranked)
Going into this week’s predictions, there was no question that Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman would be the headline. The gangster epic premiered last Friday at the New York Film Festival to overwhelmingly glowing reviews. That reaction has propelled it to the #1 spot in Picture, Director, and kept it there in Adapted Screenplay.
Additionally, the festival greatly increased the chances for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci to land nominations. De Niro makes an appearance in lead for the first time, pushing out Antonio Banderas. Pacino enters Supporting Actor, displacing Willem Dafoe. And Pesci rises to the #6 slot in that category.
Yet the movement this Thursday extends beyond Irishman. Renee Zellweger’s title performance in Judy is now #1 in Actress. In Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers vaults to first position.
In Picture, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes its inaugural showing in my top ten projections. That pushes out Little Women, as we await reaction for it.
Finally, it was revealed (fairly unsurprisingly) that Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell will be released in December for awards consideration. I have the film, Clint, Paul Walter Hauser, Kathy Bates, and its Adapted Screenplay mentioned as possibilities.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Irishman
LOSER OF THE WEEK: The Lighthouse
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. The Farewell (PR: 10)
10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker (PR: 12)
12. Little Women (PR: 9)
13. Waves (PR: 13)
14. Just Mercy (PR: 18)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 14)
16. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)
17. Judy (PR: 23)
18. Booksmart (PR: 21)
19. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Bombshell (PR: 16)
21. The Report (PR: 20)
22. Dark Waters (PR: 22)
23. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Rocketman (PR: 25)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 17)
Dropped Out:
The Lighthouse
Knives Out
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)
12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 14)
14. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 13)
15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
12. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)
11. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)
13. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)
15. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love
Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 11)
9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 12)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 9)
13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)
14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
Octavia Spencer, Luce
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
The biggest Oscar domino not yet fall screened has been Martin Scorsese’s TheIrishman, the three and a half hour gangster drama headlined by genre legends Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci. That changed today. The epic opened the New York Film Festival exactly two months ahead of its Netflix debut. And – no real surprise here – it appears to be a serious contender.
TheIrishman is said to be both a humorous and contemplative piece with De Niro and Pacino providing their best performances in years. Same goes for Pesci as he’s been away from the silver screen for nearly a decade.
While nearly all reviews are positive, they’re not all raves. My early hunch is that this will earn Picture and Director nods. Winning is another story and that is one still left to play out. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 100%. This will likely mark Scorsese’s ninth nomination (he’s won once for 2006’s TheDeparted). That’s also his only effort to be named Best Picture. The Adapted Screenplay from Steve Zaillian should also make the final cut.
Down the line recognition presents many chances including Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, and Visual Effects. For the latter, the de-aging technology that allows its stars to look younger could attract the notice of that branch. The pic would actually be the second Scorsese title to get a Visual Effects nod after 2011’s Hugo (which won).
Now to the thespians. The thinking is that De Niro will be in lead actor with Pacino and Pesci in supporting. It sounds as if they will be the trio in contention. De Niro would gunning for his eighth appearance as a nominee. He won Supporting for 1974’s TheGodfatherPartII and lead in Scorsese’s 1980 masterwork RagingBull. I’ve had him listed in spot #6 for some time in my weekly rankings. I could still see him missing the cut as his role is said to be less flashy than his costars, but I think his chances are better today. Numerous critics have stated that Pacino steals the show and he’s going for nomination #9 (his sole win is 1992’s ScentofaWoman). Like De Niro, I’ve had him slotted sixth and I expect him to enter the top five in a supporting actor race that is already jam packed. As for Pesci (who won for 1990’s Scorsese classic GoodFellas), other reviewers are singling him out. That opens the door for two men to be nominated in the supporting race for the second time since 1991 when Harvey Keitel (who’s also in this) and Ben Kingsley were recognized for Bugsy. This occurred again two years ago with Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Pesci is not the near sure thing Pacino is, but it could happen.
Bottom line: TheIrishman did what it needed to do in the Big Apple to establish itself as a player in awards chatter. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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