As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Half Nelson (Actor, 2006); La La Land (Actor, 2016)
The Case for Ryan Gosling:
For his third nomination and first in the supporting field, Gosling has been mentioned everywhere that counts (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice). His show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a highlight of the year’s biggest blockbuster.
The Case Against Ryan Gosling:
He’s lost all of those precursors to Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. It’s also rare for comedic performances to get victories in any of the acting derbies. Barbie underperformed a tad with omissions for Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (though America Ferrera made the cut).
The Verdict:
I’m just saying Downey Jr. is looking solid for gold. Gosling might be runner-up, but distantly.
My Case Of posts will continue with Martin Scorsese’s direction in Killers of the Flower Moon…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Jodie Foster in Nyad. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Taxi Driver (Supporting Actress, 1976); The Accused (Actress, 1988, WON); The Silence of the Lambs (Actress, 1991, WON); Nell (Actress, 1994)
The Case for Jodie Foster:
The legendary actress hit the Globes/SAG/Critics Choice trifecta of precursors. Foster’s fifth Oscar nod comes nearly 40 years after her initial supporting try and almost 30 years since her last leading nomination. It may not hurt that she’s just coming off an acclaimed TV role on HBO’s True Detective: Night Country.
The Case Against Jodie Foster:
In addition to Foster missing BAFTA, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won everywhere and appears easily headed toward the victory. While costar Annette Bening is up for lead actress, Nyad showed up nowhere else in the Academy’s mentions.
The Verdict:
This is Randolph’s prize.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ryan Gosling in Barbie…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actor and that’s Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Cillian Murphy:
Mr. Murphy’s sixth collaboration with Christopher Nolan earned him his first Academy nod. Oppenheimer is far and away the BP frontrunner and he is the title character. Already the victor at the Globes and BAFTA, Murphy picked up a key award last night at SAG. 17 out of the past 20 SAG recipients went on to take Actor at the Oscars.
The Case Against Cillian Murphy:
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) was named in Musical/Comedy at the Globes and he took Critics Choice where 16 of the last 20 winners have won Oscar.
The Verdict:
SAG has put Murphy out front in the competition. Giamatti is still viable, but the star of the future BP winner is now the likely winner.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jodie Foster in Nyad…
There were no shockers in the film races at the 30th SAG Awards as I went for 4 for 6. And indeed… four of the categories were fairly easy to predict while Actress and Actor were tossups. They went the other way from my forecasts.
Oppenheimer is your Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture as it seems destined for the Academy’s BP prize in a couple of weeks. Simply put, it has swept all the precursors it needs to.
Christopher Nolan’s epic won half the cinematic derbies this evening as Cillian Murphy took lead Actor. I had Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers getting this one. The general feeling (and I believe the correct one) is that if Murphy managed SAG, that makes it difficult to bet against him for Oscar. The race moves from Tossup between Murphy and Giamatti to Likely Murphy. As expected, Robert Downey Jr. continued his dominance in Supporting Actor.
In non-Oppenheimer news, Lily Gladstone was honored as lead Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon over Emma Stone in Poor Things (who I predicted). Had Stone made the podium trip, this Oscar category would be Likely Stone. Now I’d say it’s a tossup as both performers have essentially split the precursors.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph put another notch in the anticipated sweep in Supporting Actress for The Holdovers.
Finally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning is the first feature in that long running franchise to win Stunt Ensemble. I called that one.
Bottom line: SAG gave a huge boost to Gladstone giving Stone steady competition in two weeks. Meanwhile the Oppenheimer momentum keeps rolling along.
Johan Renck’s Spaceman is not – I repeat, not – about the doctor that Chris Parnell hilariously played on 30 Rock. The sci-fi drama does star a fellow SNL alumni in Adam Sandler as a Czech astronaut on a solo mission. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this week, hits theaters in limited fashion this weekend, and premieres on Netflix March 1st. Costars include Carey Mulligan (currently vying for Best Actress in Maestro), Paul Dano (doing voiceover work), Kunal Nayyar, Lena Olin, and Isabella Rossellini.
Sandler’s serious work has probably come close to making the Academy’s cut with 2019’s Uncut Gems or 2022’s Hustle which earned him a SAG nod. I don’t think you’ll see Spaceman launch him into consideration. The RT score is a mixed 64% with some reviews calling it a bore. Others are far more complimentary, but not to the degree that I think that generates any awards buzz. The lone exception could be Visual Effects. I’m not confident in that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actress and that’s Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
An Education (2009, Actress); Promising Young Woman (2020, Actress)
The Case for Carey Mulligan:
After likely coming up just a little short to Frances McDormand (Nomadland) in 2020 for PromisingYoungWoman, Mulligan has made the cut at key precursors with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. As Leonard Bernstein’s spouse Felicia, she has a number of Oscar clips to choose from alongside costar Bradley Cooper.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan:
So do Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and they’ve taken the hardware in ceremonies that have already occurred.
The Verdict:
The third time won’t be the charm for Mulligan.
My Case Of posts will continue with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer…
The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.
Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.
Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!
It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:
Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Verdict:
At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for America Ferrera:
Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.
The Case Against America Ferrera:
Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.
The Verdict:
I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.
My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actor and that’s Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Cinderella Man (Supporting Actor, 2005)
The Case for Paul Giamatti:
He has an Emmy and a Globe as the title character in HBO’s John Adams from 2008, but Paul Giamatti has just one Oscar nod for his supporting work in Cinderella Man. For that nomination, he was in the mix but came up short to George Clooney in Syriana. That means he was snubbed for 2003’s American Splendor and, most notably, 2004’s Sideways. There could be an overdue narrative brewing. As temperamental teacher Paul Hunham in his second collaboration with Alexander Payne behind Sideways, Giamatti has won the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical and took the Critics Choice Award. He’s also in contention for BAFTA tomorrow and SAG next week.
The Case Against Paul Giamtti:
That the Oppenheimer love will translate to Cillian Murphy being named. He is the recipient of the Globe for Actor in a Drama. Perhaps voters will feel The Holdovers is being properly honored in Supporting Actress where Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the frontrunner.
The Verdict:
Giamatti stands an excellent chance… as does Murphy. My suspicion is that Murphy takes BAFTA and Giamatti is out front as SAG. If that pans out, we are in for a showdown on the evening of the Academy’s festivities. If either of the performers win BAFTA/SAG, consider them the strong favorite.
My Case Of posts will continue with America Ferrera in Barbie…
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