Tag: SAG Awards

78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 4/5

I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

How I Did: 9/10

I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

How I Did: 2/5

Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 4/5

I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

Animated Film

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 5/6

I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is where Anora could get a prize.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 4/5

Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

How I Did: 5/6

I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 4/6

Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

Casting

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

How I Did: 2/5

This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

How I Did: 4/5

Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

Costume Design

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

Editing

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

How I Did: 3/5

Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

Make-Up and Hair

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

Original Score

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

Sound

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

Special Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

This third write-up brings us to Best Supporting Actress. If you missed the previous two posts covering Actress and Supporting Actor, you can find them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

I often refer to the “pen” theory on this blog when discussing my Oscar forecasts. Those are performers and pictures whose nominations can be written in pen. For the 97th Academy Awards in Supporting Actress, I believe there’s two surefire selections.

Pop star Ariana Grande’s turn as Glinda has bewitched audiences worldwide. She’s received a key quartet of noms at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and the BAFTA long list. Her inclusion appears assured.

The same can be said for Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and I have her placed in 1st. That’s because Saldaña has also achieved the aforementioned precursors with a victory at the Globes.

And then it’s a bit of a free for all with 8 performers, in my view, vying for 3 slots. Before we discuss them, let’s take a moment to mention some actresses whose nods once seemed possible. Then their pictures debuted and either the movies were looked at as disappointments or their roles weren’t significant enough to warrant awards buzz. I’m talking about Lady Gaga from Joker: Folie à Deux, Toni Collettee in Juror #2, Lashana Lynch from Bob Marley: One Love, and Hong Chau in Kinds of Kindness, to name a few.

Despite making the BAFTA long list, don’t look for Adriana Paz in Emilia Pérez to contend with the focus on cast mates Karla Sofia Gascón in lead and Saldaña and Selena Gomez (we’ll get to her shortly) here. Emily Watson also made the BAFTA cut in Small Things like These but isn’t expected to factor into the Academy derby. Same with Michele Austin in Hard Truths.

The next group were once seen as viable and have not made it to the precursors. Their nominations are not totally impossible. However, they would be rightly seen as major spoilers. I would include Joan Chen (Dídi), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) in this lot.

We return to the 8 performers circling three Oscar chairs. They are: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown has only popped up in one of the 4 previously discussed precursors. In her favor… it’s the most recent at SAG and Unknown has generally been over performing this season. I don’t have her predicted at press time and she’s 5th out of these 8 possibilities.

Jamie Lee Curtis, two years after winning this prize for Everything Everywhere All at Once, is in the mix once again for The Last Showgirl. She could also benefit from recency bias. While she didn’t factor in at the Globes or Critics Choice, her name has been called in the last few days with the BAFTA long list and SAG. I have her 6th out of the 8 possibilities.

Danielle Deadwyler has the disadvantage of The Piano Lesson not being a Best Picture contender or being a threat for a nomination anywhere else. The SAG nod this week kept her in the conversation and she also received Critics Choice. Two years ago, she was notably snubbed for her lead performance in Till and that could assist her now. I have her 3rd out of the 8 possibilities and just getting in.

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys has only shown up at Critics Choice and the movie itself may or may not make the BP dance. While her standing in the eventual quintet looks shaky, I wouldn’t totally discount her and she’s 7th out of the 8 possibilities.

Selena Gomez is undoubtedly in the shadow of costar Saldaña though she’s in the BAFTA long list and was nominated at the Globes. A SAG nod would have caused her to be higher, but she’s 8th out of the 8 possibilities.

Felicity Jones made BAFTA and Globes and was a surprise no-show at Critics Choice and SAG. I suspect The Brutalist‘s eventual standing at Oscar helps and I have her 1st among these 8 possibilities.

Margaret Qualley is nowhere near as guaranteed an Academy invite as her Substance lead Demi Moore. Of the four precursors, she has only missed SAG. I didn’t predict her there and I currently have her 4th of these 8 possibilities. That would leave her barely on the outside looking in.

Finally, despite a short amount of screen time in Conclave, Isabella Rossellini also only missed SAG. Unlike Qualley, I have her 3rd of the 8 hopefuls and just making the quintet.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a deep dive into Best Actor up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

    Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

    Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

    The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

    So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

    There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

    Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

    More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

    8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    A Different Man

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Hit Man

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked

    Best Costume Design

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Conclave

    8 Nominations

    Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

    5 Nominations

    The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    31st SAG Awards Nomination Reactions

    Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.

    Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

    How I Did: 4/5

    The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    How I Did: 3/5

    The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 2/5 (oof)

    And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.

    And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…

    31st SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

    Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

    Angelina Jolie, Maria

    Mikey Madison, Anora

    Demi Moore, The Substance

    Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

    Ariana Grande, Wicked

    Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)

    Predicted Nominees:

    Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

    Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Anora

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Sing Sing

    Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Deadpool & Wolverine

    Dune: Part Two

    The Fall Guy

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Gladiator II

    Runner-Up: Monkey Man

    That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

    4 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    3 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked

    2 Nominations

    Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    1 Nomination

    The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance

    I’ll have a recap up with how I did on Wednesday!

    The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 47 – Jason Sudeikis

    Before becoming a SAG and Golden Globe winner for his heralded role on Apple TV’s Ted Lasso, Jason Sudeikis was part of one of SNL’s finest ensembles in the show’s first half century of existence. He earns the 47 spot in my top 50 cast members.

    Sudeikis memorably played Mitt Romney and Joe Biden while also channeling The Devil in Update bits and appearing alongside Kristin Wiig as one half of the A-Holes. Sudeikis was occasionally overshadowed by costars who will appear higher on this list, but he was a glue guy in a top SNL era. #46 will be up soon!

    Jason Sudeikis

    Years on the Show: 2005-2013

    Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

    Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

    The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

    Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

    As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

    At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…