Tag: SAG Awards

Oscars 2019: The Case of Florence Pugh

Florence Pugh’s Supporting Actress nod in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women is next up in my Case of posts!

The Case for Florence Pugh

The actress broke out in a major way in 2019 with well-reviewed roles in the wrestling dramedy Fighting with My Family, Ari Aster’s horror pic Midsommar, and in this latest iteration of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel. Even though Saoirse Ronan is nominated for Best Actress, it was Pugh who got a lions share of critical attention. Pugh’s ascendance into the mainstream will blossom even more in 2020 with a prominent role alongside fellow Supporting Actress nominee Scarlett Johansson in the MCU’s Black Widow. If the Academy wants to pick a young upstart, this is the way to go.

The Case Against Florence Pugh

She missed out on both Golden Globe and SAG nods and that’s never a solid sign. Laura Dern, her Little Women costar, is the massive front runner for Marriage Story. 

The Verdict

A solid 2019 for Pugh culminated in this nomination. It won’t end in a win.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Todd Phillips for Joker!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Charlize Theron

Charlize Theron in Jay Roach’s Fox News expose Bombshell is the fourth Best Actress hopeful to be profiled in my Oscar Case of posts:

The Case for Charlize Theron

Sixteen years after winning gold for her first Oscar nomination for Monster, Theron is back in the mix as journalist Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. It marks her third nod after also being named for 2005’s North Country. She drew raves for her transformation (with the help of the film’s makeup crew) to the former Fox News anchor. There are sturdy front runners in all four acting races, but some feel Best Actress is most ripe for an upset. So while Renee Zellweger in Judy is the heavy favorite based on precursors, Theron and Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) are looked at as most likely to surprise.

The Case Against Charlize Theron

While she picked up Golden Globe and SAG attention, she lost both to Zellweger (who won Supporting Actress for Cold Mountain the same year Theron took Actress). Bombshell failed to pick up significant nods beyond acting (Margot Robbie is in Supporting Actress) and Makeup and Hairstyling.

The Verdict

The chance of Theron pulling an upset victory is slim, but at least somewhat feasible. I wouldn’t count on it, however, given Zellweger’s ongoing sweep.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Sam Mendes for 1917!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Joaquin Phoenix

The Case of posts for performers up for Academy Awards on February 9th arrived at Joaquin Phoenix as Joker in the Todd Phillips directed blockbuster:

The Case for Joaquin Phoenix

After three previous nominations for Gladiator, Walk the Line, and The Master, all signs are pointing to Phoenix finally getting the gold. For this particular comic book pic, Joker defied all expectations with a worldwide gross of over a billion dollars. Much of the focus was on Phoenix’s intense performance and he’s been rewarded with Golden Globe and SAG victories already. The film itself leads the Oscars with 11 total nominations.

The Case Against Joaquin Phoenix

The release of Joker was met with some controversy about its themes and overall message. There could be enough of a backlash that it could prevent Phoenix rising up to the podium.

The Verdict

Simply put, he is a massive front runner for his first Academy Award. If Phoenix does so, he would make a bit of Oscar history. There’s only been one combination of actors winning for playing the same fictional character: Marlon Brando and Joaquin’s Joker costar Robert De Niro as Michael Corleone in the first two Godfather epics. In 2008, Heath Ledger was posthumously awarded Supporting Actor as Joker in The Dark Knight. Expect there to be a second instance of that occurring.

My Case of posts will focus next on Charlize Theron for Bombshell!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Bong Joon-Ho

My Case of posts outlining the pros and cons of the major Oscar nominees from 2019 brings us to the first entry for Best Director and that’s Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite.

The Case for Bong Joon-Ho

After years of being a critical darling with Memories of Murder, The Host, Snowpiercer, and Okja, the South Korean filmmaker broke through in the awards space in a massive way with the genre defying Parasite. The film won the Palme d’or at the Cannes Film Festival unanimously and is the best reviewed picture of the year. Supporters of Parasite are beyond passionate. In a somewhat surprising victory, the movie’s cast won Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards. Competing against a field of legends that includes Scorsese and Tarantino, Joon-Ho is the bright shiny object for voters.

The Case Against Bong Joon-Ho

Two words: Sam Mendes. In making the World War I epic 1917, Mendes has picked up the hardware in this category’s major indicators: the Golden Globes and, especially, the Directors Guild of America.

The Verdict

It appears Best Director has come down to Joon-Ho and Mendes. This race has split with Best Picture five out the past nine years. Parasite could win Best Picture with Mendes taking director and vice versa. The precursors favor Mendes, but the love for this is indeed a factor.

My Case of posts will continue with Joaquin Phoenix in Joker!

 

Oscars 2019: The Case of Laura Dern

My Case of outlines for Oscar contenders brings us to the second post for Supporting Actress players – Laura Dern in Marriage Story. The breakdown:

The Case for Laura Dern

Dern is already an Emmy and SAG winner and five-time Golden Globe recipient, but she has yet to pick up an Oscar. She’s been nominated twice before in 1991 for Rambling Rose and for 2015’s Wild. A well-respected veteran from a Hollywood family, Dern has balanced blockbusters and indies for years. Her role a whip smart and ruthless divorce attorney in Noah Baumbach’s latest drew raves. Yet this is also seen as a career achievement prize given her zero previous wins. Dern has won all major precursors – Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and a handful of critics groups awards.

The Case Against Laura Dern

There’s not much of one. Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers was seen as her strongest competitor, but she was snubbed on nominations morning. Dern’s Marriage Story costar Scarlett Johansson is a double nominee, recognized in this race for Jojo Rabbit. The Academy could feel obliged to give ScarJo a victory here. Interestingly, Dern’s Little Women costar Florence Pugh is up as well.

The Verdict

Dern is a huge front runner and anyone else winning would be seen as a sizable upset.

My Case of posts will continue with another of Dern’s costars… Adam Driver in Marriage Story!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio

For my second writeup in my Case of posts in the Best Actor derby at the Oscars, we come to Leonardo DiCaprio (perhaps you’ve heard of him). Here’s the storyline for and against a second trip to the podium:

The Case for Leonardo DiCaprio

Well, he’s probably the biggest movie star in the world and that helps. A six-time nominee and winner in 2015 for The Revenant, his work in Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood garnered the usual raves and one heckuva meltdown scene. In a 2019 field that saw over 10 feasible contender in this race, he’s one of just three (along with Joaquin Phoenix and Adam Driver) to be nominated in all the higher profile precursors.

The Case Against Leonardo DiCaprio

Of the precursors, he’s lost them all to Phoenix. DiCaprio’s costar Brad Pitt has been receiving the lions share of awards love here with multiple Supporting Actor victories.

The Verdict

Had DiCaprio not recently won for The Revenant (Hollywood is his first movie since), there might be more of a path. However, the Phoenix factor and Pitt attention should leave Leo 1/6 on Oscar night.

My Case of posts will continue with the second nominated Best Actress… Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Tom Hanks

The Case of posts for the pictures, directors, and performers nominated for this year’s Oscars brings us to our first Supporting Actor player – Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Let’s look at the pros and cons for the legendary actor:

The Case for Tom Hanks

Well, he’s Tom Hanks. His work as beloved TV host Mister Rogers in Neighborhood brings him his sixth Oscar nod. He famously won back to back for Best Adtor in the 1990s with Philadelphia and Forrest Gimp, in addition to being nominated for Big, Saving Private Ryan, and Cast Away. Hanks is one of the most recognizable and appreciated movie stars in the world. Voters just witnessed him giving a touching and funny lifetime achievement speech at the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Tom Hanks

You might be surprised to learn that his nomination from the Academy is his first in 19 years. He was bypassed for such performances as Road to Perdition, Charlie Wilson’s War, Captain Phillips (I’m still salty about that snub), Saving Mr. Banks, Bridge of Spies, Sully, and The Post. In other words, Oscar voters may feel the two gold statues on his mantle are sufficient. As for the picture itself, Hanks’s inclusion in Supporting Actor is the sole nomination as Neighborhood couldn’t break out anywhere else with the Academy. While he snagged Globe and SAG mentions, he lost both to Brad Pitt from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 

The Verdict

While it’s good to see Hanks back in the mix, all signs point to this award winding up in Pitt’s neighborhood this year.

Up Next in my Case of posts… Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Cynthia Erivo

My Case of posts for nominees in the major categories at the Oscars brings us to our first Best Actress contender – Cynthia Erivo in Harriet. Let’s break down the pros and cons for the performer:

The Case for Cynthia Erivo

If she wins the Oscar in the title role of abolitionist Harriet Tubman, Erivo would be in the rare space of achieving an EGOT. That’s an Emmy, Grammy, Tony, and Oscar recipient. Only 15 individuals have done so and Erivo would be the 5th female. She garnered early acclaim for her Broadway work in The Color Purple and transitioned into film in 2018 with a well-received supporting turn in Widows. Erivo is also a double nominee as she penned the nominated original song “Stand Up”. Harriet, despite mixed reviews, was a decent box office performer with stateside earnings of just over $40 million.

The Case Against Cynthia Erivo

Despite Golden Globe and SAG nods, Erivo has seen no precursor victories at those ceremonies or with the critics groups. It was uncertain whether she would even make the final five cut. At 33, voters might feel she’ll have other chances.

The Verdict

The “O” in EGOT is going to have to wait for Erivo. She stands a slightly better chance in Original Song, but that’s iffy too.

My Case of posts will continue with the first Supporting Actor contender… Tom Hanks!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Antonio Banderas

In my Case of posts outlining the pros and cons of pictures, directors, and actors vying for Oscar glory in the major categories, we arrive at the thespians. Now that my write-ups for the nine film nominees are complete, we start with Best Actor. The plan is to mix it up with these posts among the four acting races. We start with Antonio Banderas and his role in Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory.

The Case for Antonio Banderas

Pain and Glory is one of the most acclaimed foreign language features of 2019 not named Parasite and it earned Banderas career best notices in a nearly 40 year cinematic span. The pic, which draws on Almodovar’s real life experiences, sports a 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating and continues a partnership with his lead actor that began in 1982 and includes such features as Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, Tie Me Up! Tie Me Down!, and The Skin I Live In. Banderas nabbed a Golden Globe nod and won some key critical precursors: the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and New York Film Critics Circle. The buzz for his work started months ago when he also took Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival. This nomination marks his first ever from the Academy despite a long and fruitful career.

The Case Against Antonio Banderas

Best Actor was absolutely packed this year and it was uncertain whether Banderas would even get in. He missed a SAG nod. It’s extremely rare for an actor to win from a foreign language feature. For Best Actor, the list stands at one non-English speaking role with Roberto Benigni for 1998’s Life is Beautiful. 

The Verdict

For Banderas’s first shot at an Academy victory, the prize is the nomination in a field where there were at least 10 viable contenders and he made the cut.

My Case of posts will continue with my first Best Actress contender… Cynthia Erivo!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Parasite

We have reached the final film in my Case of posts for 2019’s nine Best Picture nominees and it’s time to consider Bong Joon-Ho’s South Korean export Parasite. If you need to catch up on my previous eight entries, you can peruse them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/15/oscars-2019-the-case-of-the-irishman/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/17/oscars-2019-the-case-of-jojo-rabbit/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-joker/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-little-women/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/19/oscars-2019-the-case-of-marriage-story/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/20/oscars-2019-the-case-of-1917/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/20/oscars-2019-the-case-of-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood/

And now to Parasite!

The Case for Parasite

The pic, which defies easy genre descriptions, certainly has critics on its side. With a 99% Rotten Tomatoes score, this is the best reviewed film of the year and its admirers are passionate and vocal. This is a slam dunk winner for the newly coined Best International Feature Film. Over the weekend, Parasite won Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards and it was the only foreign pic to ever do so. For a subtitled film, it’s been a box office success stateside at $27 million and counting. The buzz has been strong for months after it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Joon-Ho is an acclaimed filmmaker (with heralded efforts like Memories of Murder, The Host and Snowpiercer) who’s at last garnering the awards season love.

The Case Against Parasite

If this were to win Best Picture, it would constitute a first. A foreign language title has never won the top prize. Last year’s Roma was the front runner, but it lost to Green Book. It is also rare for a Picture recipient to have none of its actors nominated and that’s the case here.

The Verdict

Even with the fact that it would need to make history, Parasite currently stands alongside 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as the biggest threats to win it all. If the Directors Guild of America (DGA) honors Joon-Ho instead of Sam Mendes for 1917 this weekend, expect that chatter to get even louder.

My Case of posts will continue right up until Oscar day! While the movies themselves have all received their treatment, the nominated directors and actors will get their attention as well. Stay tuned…