As a morbidly obese English teacher attempting to reconnect with his daughter, Brendan Fraser’s performance in The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Brendan Fraser:
After a three decade career with films as varied as Encino Man, George of the Jungle, Gods and Monsters, The Mummy, and Crash, Darren Aronofsky’s latest gave Fraser an acclaimed comeback narrative. Since the premiere in Venice, he’s been at the forefront of Best Actor chatter. This resulted in pending noms at SAG and BAFTA and a victory at the Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Brendan Fraser:
Reaction to the film itself has been as varied as the lead’s filmography. It missed a Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay nomination. The last Best Actor winner whose movie missed the BP cut is Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart in 2009. Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), who each took the respective lead Actor competitions at the Golden Globes, don’t have that problem.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The narrative of a Fraser podium trip might be too enticing for voters to pass up. However, The Whale‘s divisive reaction throws real doubt as to whether he goes all the way.
My Case Of posts will continue with Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you missed the previous posts for the Actor hopefuls, you can peruse them here:
Brian Tyree Henry’s performance in Causeway as a mechanic struggling with his involvement in a family tragedy is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor hopefuls.
The Case for Brian Tyree Henry:
After critically appreciated roles in Widows and If Beale Street Could Talk and being singled out in genre fare such as Godzilla vs. Kong and Bullet Train, he earned his strongest reviews yet for the Apple TV drama costarring Jennifer Lawrence. He’s also up for a Critics Choice nod.
The Case Against Brian Tyree Henry:
In addition to missing out on precursors such as SAG, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is the overwhelming favorite in the race. He represents the indie pic’s sole mention and he was a surprise addition on nomination morning.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Even if a major upset occurs in Supporting Actor, it’s highly doubtful Henry will be the cause of it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Martin McDonagh’s direction for The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you’ve missed the write-ups for the other Supporting Actors in the field, they can be found here:
Hong Chau’s performance as the blunt and compassionate caretaker to Brendan Fraser in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actress hopefuls.
The Case for Hong Chau:
After being surprisingly left out of this race five years ago for Downsizing, Chau nabs her first nomination. It caps off a 2022 that includes an acclaimed role in The Menu. Significant precursor mentions include BAFTA and SAG.
The Case Against Hong Chau:
Significant precursor omissions include the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. If voters honor The Whale, a victory for Brendan Fraser (who won at Critics Choice) is a far likelier. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) is a frontrunner due to previous podium trips.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Chau was certainly on the bubble for even making this quintet. Supporting Actress has seen a couple of upsets in the 21st century, but Chau would need BAFTA or SAG to realistically put a win on the menu. I wouldn’t count on it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway!
For the other posts covering Supporting Actress, click here:
Colin Farrell’s first Oscar nomination as an Irish lad with a donkey and a drinking buddy who ghosts him in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin is next up in my Case Of posts for the Best Actor contenders.
The Case for Colin Farrell:
After two decades in roles both lead and supporting, Farrell had his most acclaimed role with Banshees. It caps off an impressive 2022 that included praised performances in After Yang, The Batman, and Thirteen Lives. For Banshees, he’s won a slew of critics groups honors in addition to the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy (which he also took home for his previous collaboration with McDonagh In Bruges). If Banshees takes Best Picture, Farrell could be swept in with it.
The Case Against Colin Farrell:
At the Globes, he didn’t have to compete against Austin Butler (Elvis) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) since they were in the Drama quintet. They are the other two hopefuls in an Actor race where any of the three could realistically take gold. At Critics Choice, it was Fraser who emerged victorious. Of the three, Farrell’s role is the least showy.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Figuring out whether Butler, Farrell, or Fraser end up as the victor should come down to the wire. The upcoming BAFTA and SAG Awards could be key in determining the soft frontrunner. It may also make it even more confusing if the groups go with different recipients.
My Case Of posts will continue with Supporting Actress hopeful Hong Chau in The Whale!
If you missed my other Best Actor write-ups, you can find them here:
Ana de Armas is Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominik’s Blonde and she’s the second Best Actress hopeful in my Case Of Posts.
The Case for Ana de Armas:
Despite the film itself garnering mixed reactions (more on that below), de Armas was widely praised. This resulted in nods at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Ana de Armas:
I’m talking really mixed reactions for the film. Blonde received the most Razzie nominations (8) of any 2022 title. Some critics and viewers outright despised the Netflix effort as evidenced by the 42% Rotten Tomatoes score and even lower 32% audience rating. She has yet to win anywhere.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The fact that so many had their knives out for Blonde makes her a non-factor in this competition (unless we see a shocking SAG or BAFTA victory). We should see the Academy’s ladies and gentlemen prefer Cate Blanchett (Tár) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
My Case Of posts will continue with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you missed my other write-ups for the Actress nominees, you can find them here:
As the grieving mother of an iconic Marvel superhero, Angela Bassett is first up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actress quintet.
The Case for Angela Bassett:
Nearly thirty years after receiving a Best Actress nomination as Tina Turner in What’s Love Got to Do with It, Bassett becomes the first performer to land a mention for an MCU pic (in its 30th feature). Her work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has already given her Golden Globe and Critics Choice statues. BAFTA and SAG could follow suit as she hasn’t missed any of the significant precursors. She’s also a highly respected thespian and voters may feel it’s time to honor her.
The Case Against Angela Bassett:
This would be the only performance from a comic book tale to win where the actor isn’t playing the Joker. In other words, despite the prevalence of the genre in the 21st century, this is a rare occurrence. While she’s run the table thus far, a SAG or BAFTA victory for another contestant (say Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin) would interrupt the sweep chatter.
Previous Nominations:
What’s Love Got to Do with It (Actress, 1993)
The Verdict:
In the supporting fields, I’m not not quite as confident in Bassett’s coronation as I am with Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor. That said, she is definitely in the best position for the crown.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin!
For post covering the other Supporting Actress hopefuls, click here:
Austin Butler is the first performer up for the Best Actor quintet in My Case Of posts for the 95th Academy Awards. Will his performance as Elvis nab the 31-year-old a statue? Let’s break it down.
The Case for Austin Butler:
In a star making role as the iconic musician, Butler looks to follow a Best Actor winning path we’ve seen before. It includes Jamie Foxx in Ray and Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. He’s picked up some hardware already at the Golden Globes where he took Best Actor in a Drama over Brendan Fraser in The Whale.
The Case Against Austin Butler:
This is a close three-man contest and voters may feel that the time is right for veterans Fraser or Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin). The former took the Critics Choice prize while the latter received the Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy).
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Butler is as viable as his more seasoned nominees. He’s got a real shot, but SAG (which has matched Oscar 8 for 10 in the past decade) and BAFTA (9 for 10 match) could make him rise or fall.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first Supporting Actress nominee – Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever!
The Case Of posts covering the other Actor hopefuls can be found here:
My Case Of posts will for the ten Best Picture hopefuls is past the halfway point as we consider the pros and cons of our sixth competitor The Fabelmans.
The Case for The Fabelmans:
Steven Spielberg’s 13th movie to be nominated for BP (only Schindler’s List won) is his most personal as arguably today’s most iconic director gets autobiographical. It was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival where it took the People’s Choice Award. That’s a prize shared by later Oscar winners such as The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. At the Golden Globes, it had a big night as it was bestowed Best Motion Picture (Drama) and Spielberg nabbed the directorial trophy. A victory here could be seen as a genuine thank you for its maker’s cinematic contributions.
The Case Against The Fabelmans:
That genuine thank you could just as easily come with Spielberg being Best Director and BP going to something else. Despite the Globes love, BAFTA was shockingly dismissive as its sole nomination is for screenplay. At Critics Choice, it went a mere 1/11 with Gabriel LaBelle as Best Young Actor (a non-existent Academy race). While the seven nominations are decent, there were notable omissions including Film Editing and Cinematography. It’s also undeniably a box office dud with $16 million at press time.
Other Nominations:
Director (Spielberg), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Production Design
The Verdict:
There is a universe in which The Fabelmans gets BP and Director, but I would put it behind Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin right now. An Ensemble win at SAG could help momentum. It may be behind the aforementioned at that ceremony too.
My Case Of posts will continue with Tár!
If you missed my previous posts in the series, you can access them here:
Everything Everywhere All at Once is fifth on the docket in my Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees. Let’s plead the case for and against it!
The Case for Everything Everywhere All at Once:
The sophomore feature from Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known collectively as the Daniels) debuted at South by Southwest on March 11th and will have been a legit contender for over a year when the Oscars air March 12th. A critical darling with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it has been nominated in every major precursor. This includes 10 BAFTA nominations, 14 Critics Choice mentions with 5 wins (including Picture, Director and Screenplay), 6 Golden Globe nods with two wins for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, and 5 pending SAG noms. While some have griped that recent BP recipients didn’t break through with mass audiences, Everything was a box office success with $71 million domestically. Its 11 Academy nods are the most of any picture and that includes four for its ensemble (Yeoh, Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu).
The Case Against Everything Everywhere All at Once:
In the last 10 ceremonies, only two films that led or tied in total nominations (Birdman and The Shape of Water) ended up winning BP. One could argue Everything is the frontrunner. In recent years, ask how that worked out for La La Land, Roma, and 1917. The Academy could follow the Globes suit and skew toward The Banshees of Inisherin. There are some prognosticators who feel it’s too strange for the Academy.
Other Nominations:
Director (the Daniels), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song
The Verdict:
I’ve never bought the “too weird for the Academy” or not traditional enough argument. You could say the same for Birdman or The Shape of Water and Everything is looking to model them on the road to victory. It is risky to be out front, but I do feel this is the odds on favorite. A SAG Ensemble loss on February 26th (especially if it’s to Banshees or The Fabelmans) could cause more intrigue. If it wins, look for this to enter March 12th as even more of a probable BP.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Fabelmans!
If you missed my other posts in this series, you can find them here:
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
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