Wonka Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.

An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.

That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.

Wonka opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million

Oscar Predictions: Wonka

Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.

The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).

Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.

One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Johnny English Strikes Again Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/18): Reports have come out that this is only getting 500 screens next weekend. Therefore I am revising my estimate down from $2.7 million to just $1.3 million.

Rowan Atkinson’s bumbling spy is back on-screen next weekend when Johnny English Strikes Again hits theaters. This is the third entry in a franchise that began 15 years ago and saw a 2011 follow-up experience dwindling returns compared to the original. David Kerr directs with a supporting cast that includes Olga Kurylenko, Ben Miller, Jake Lacy, and Emma Thompson.

In the summer of 2003, Johnny English opened to $9.1 and a $28 million overall domestic gross. Eight years later, Johnny English Reborn managed just $3.8 million out of the gate and $8.3 million overall. The sequel’s total stateside earnings is under the opening gross of its predecessor. It is worth noting that these English sagas perform far better overseas, where each made $160 million overall.

I expect the lackluster returns to continue here for part 3, while it should continue more robust earnings in other parts of the globe. I’ll say Strikes Again strikes out here and doesn’t even match the unimpressive numbers of Reborn.

Johnny English Strikes Again opening weekend prediction: $1.3 million

For my Hunter Killer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/16/hunter-killer-box-office-prediction/

For my Indivisible prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/22/indivisible-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: January 6

On this day in Movie History – January 6 – Eli Roth’s Hostel opened domestically. The horror flick surprised box office prognosticators by taking in $19.5 million for its opening with an eventual gross of $47 million, against a meager $4.8 million budget. Hostel continued a genre that came to be known as “torture porn” in horror circles. That classification of film had started just three months before with megahit Saw and would continue with its many sequels, as well as two further sequels for Hostel.

As for birthdays, Rowan Atkinson is 59 today. The British comedian is best known for his TV work with “Mr. Bean” and “Blackadder”, but he translated that success with the film version of Bean (1997) and its sequel from 2007, Mr. Bean’s Holiday. He had another film franchise with Johnny English (2003) and Johnny English Reborn (2011). Other notable film appearances: Hot Shots! Part Deux (1993), Four Weddings and a Funeral (1994), Scooby Doo (2002), and Love Actually (2003).

Japanese actress Rinko Kikuchi is 33 today. She broke through the American audiences in 2006 with her Oscar-nominated Supporting Actress turn in Babel and has continued to work stateside in The Brothers Bloom, Pacific Rim, and 47 Ronin.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two birthday performers:

Rowan Atkinson was in Love Actually with Chiwetel Ejiofer

Chiwetel Ejiofer was in 12 Years a Slave with Brad Pitt

Brad Pitt was in Babel with Rinko Kikuchi

And that’s today – January 6 – in Movie History!