Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?
Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.
Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.
The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.
Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.
While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.
And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.
All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.
Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.
Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.
Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.
When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.
Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.
There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.
Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.
My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.
Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.
That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).
As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):
Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.
The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).
Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.
Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.
Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).
Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.
Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.
You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)
24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Ballad of a Small Player
La Grazia
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Hikari, Rental Family
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)
15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)
12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)
14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)
15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
The Rivals of Amziah King
Anemone
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ballad of a Small Player
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Late Fame
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
La Grazia
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
Deaf President Now!
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Couture
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Christy
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
How to Train Your Dragon
That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Winner: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.
Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)
23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)
24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, At the Sea
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)
13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ella McKay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)
3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timestamp
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Mother Mary
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2
While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.
In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.
Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)
23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)
12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)
12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)
5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Six Billion Dollar Man
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)
9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sinners
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nomnations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
After the Hunt, Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Bugonia
5 Nominations
Hamnet
4 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominatons
Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman
We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!
I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.
Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.
Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.
As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.
Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me fromNowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)
17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)
18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. After the Hunt
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sorry, Baby
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. The Secret Agent
10. Ann Lee
11. Rental Family
12. Ella McCay
13. Is This Thing On?
14. Nouvelle Vague
15. A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. The Life of Chuck
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Train Dreams
11. Die, My Love
12. Late Fame
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. Hedda
15. The Smashing Machine
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The President’s Cake
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirát
7. Sound of Falling
8. Left-Handed Girl
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Elio
4. Scarlet
5. In Your Dreams
Other Possibilities:
6. Animal Farm
7. A Magnificent Life
8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
9. KPop Demon Hunters
10. Ne Zha 2
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Deaf President Now!
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
9. The Six Billion Dollar Man
10. The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Bugonia
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Rivals of Amziah King
Other Possibilities:
6. F1
7. Sentimental Value
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Lee
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. Mother Mary
9. Snow White
10. One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. F1
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt
7. Wicked: For Good
8. One Battle After Another
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later
7. Bugonia
8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Wolf Man
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Bugonia
3. After the Hunt
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another
7. F1
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Rivals of Amziah King
10. Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. TBD from Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
10. TBD from Mother Mary
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia
7. One Battle After Another
8. Marty Supreme
9. The Phoenician Scheme
10. Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Warfare
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Frankenstein
10. Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
7. F1
8. How to Train Your Dragon
9. Tron: Ares
10. Sinners
Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
After the Hunt
7 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
6 Nominatons
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominatons
F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.
This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.
There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.
Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.
Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)
14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)
24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026
Is This Thing On?
Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)
11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
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