Critically acclaimed horror thriller Heretic and holiday family dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever will both attempt to keep Venom: The Last Dance from a third weekend in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Heretic finds Hugh Grant dipping into scary territory and my low double digits estimate puts it in range with the September start of Speak No Evil. That’s likely good for second place.
I’ve got Christmas in third in the high single digits though its chances of over performing exist. I also think it might experience low declines as the holidays approach and get off to a relatively slow start.
My projections on the two openers does indeed leave Venom atop the charts for a third frame assuming it drops in the mid 40s. Holdovers The Wild Robot and Smile 2 should round out the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
2. Heretic
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (November 1-3)
November started off in multiplexes with October product holding steadier than my forecasts. Venom: The Last Dance is the prime example as it declined only 49% in weekend #2 with $25.9 million. I was much lower at $17.3 million. That’s a bit of a surprise considering predecessor Let There Be Carnage plummeted in the mid 60s. Of course, it’s worth noting that Dance opened with nearly $40 million less than Carnage.
The Wild Robot was second with $7.4 million as it managed to rise 9% and blast past my $5 million call. The animated pic has amassed $121 million after six weeks.
Smile 2 was third with $6.7 million and that’s wider than my $5.6 million take. The horror sequel is up to $52 million after three frames.
Oscar hopeful Conclave eased a mere 24% in fourth with $5 million (I said $4.2 million) for $14 million in two outings.
Finally, Robert Zemeckis’s Here, which reunites his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, stumbled with critics and audiences. The fifth place showing netted $4.8 million. My prediction? $4.8 million!
Robert Zemeckis reunites with his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright some 30 years after that Best Picture recipient with the family drama Here this weekend. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:
Here is likely to be the sole newbie to place in the top five. Unlike Gump, there’s no awards buzz for this. A debut in the mid single digits could mean anywhere from second to fifth.
Tom Hardy’s third and reportedly final go-round in The Last Dance had a subpar start (more on that below). With a troubling B- Cinemascore, a 60 percent plus percentage drop appears inevitable. That should mean mid or high teens for an unremarkable repeat performance in 1st place.
Holdovers Smile 2, The Wild Robot, and Conclave should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
2. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
3. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $5 million
4. Here
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Conclave
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (October 25-27)
As mentioned, viewers were not grooving to Venom: The Last Dance. The comic book based sequel set in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe took in $51 million. That’s under my $62.3 million take and well below 2018’s Venom ($80 million) and 2021 follow-up Let There Be Carnage at $90 million. Crowds have clearly soured on the franchise.
The news wasn’t great for Smile 2 either. The horror sequel was second with $9.5 million and that represents a 59% plummet. Its 2022 predecessor only experienced an 18% decline in weekend #2. While I didn’t think that would occur, I had this pegged at $15.6 million during its follow-up frame.
The Wild Robot was third with $6.8 million compared to my $7.5 million call. The animated hit has taken in $111 million in five weeks.
Oscar hopeful Conclave with Ralph Fiennes was fourth with a better than anticipated $6.6 million. Edward Berger’s papal succession drama blew past my $4.8 million projection.
The Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time added nearly 2000 screens and was fifth with $4.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as its total reached $11 million.
Finally, Terrifier 3 was sixth with $4.7 million (I said $5.4 million) for a robust $44 million in three weeks.
30 years ago, Forrest Gump was nominated for a whopping 13 Oscars and won six including Picture, Director (Robert Zemeckis), Actor (Tom Hanks), and Adapted Screenplay. A Forrest reunion is occurring on November 1st when Here opens. Zemeckis is behind the camera for the family drama that stars Hanks and his Gump costar Robin Wright. It is written by that film’s screenwriter Eric Roth.
Debuting at the AFI Fest this weekend, the gimmicky pic is based on a 2014 graphic novel from Richard McGuire. Set over many decades in a fixed camera location spot (primarily a living room), the supporting cast includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.
Awards lightning was not anticipated to strike twice with Here and early reaction has solidified that notion. The Metacritic score is just 46. Any hope for above-the-line noms have dissipated. Where Here could contend is Visual Effects where the de-aging work sees Hanks and Wright as teens. Some of the first reviews say these effects can be distracting and still have a ways to go to be convincing. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of a VE nod considering 2019’s The Irishman made the cut and the work here is generally seen as an improvement. There’s also some praise for Alan Silverstri’s score, but that race may be a little crowded for Here‘s inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Reuniting the director, screenwriter, and two leads from Forrest Gump some three decades after the Best Picture winner’s release, Here is present in multiplexes on November 1st. The high concept family drama utilizes a stationery home camera shot spanning decades of time. Robert Zemeckis directs and Eric Roth penned the script. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright headline a cast that includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.
The collection of talent mentioned above might have generated big bucks if it arrived in the decade following Mr. Gump’s global treks. I suspect this may struggle to find the older audience it seeks. There has yet to be any awards buzz and that could have helped.
While Hanks recently had an adult themed hit via A Man Called Otto, it had the benefit of being based on a well-known novel. Here‘s best hope is that viewers who do see it will tell their friends about it and that it plays into Thanksgiving. That could be a stretch as I’m forecasting this will only reach a troubling mid single digits.
My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.
The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.
In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.
A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.
It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)
13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)
18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)
19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)
20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)
25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Not Ranked:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Toni Collette, JurorNo. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead
Robin Wright, Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.
Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.
I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.
In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.
I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)
18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)
19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Hard Truths
SNL 1975
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)
15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)
12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
As we await the final season of Stranger Things and a third Enola Holmes tale, Millie Bobby Brown’s Netflix adventures continue this weekend in Damsel. The fantasy comes from Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, best known for making zombie sequel 28 Weeks Later. Brown headlines with a supporting cast including Ray Winstone, Angela Bassett, Brooke Carter, Nick Robinson, Robin Wright, and Shohreh Aghdashloo voicing a dragon.
Reviews are of the mixed variety at 59% on RT. The genre can lead to certain tech nods. However, some of the criticism is directed toward the CGI and visual effects appears to be a non-starter. I doubt Netflix will stress Damsel in any awards campaign months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
She’s had high profile career for over 30 years now with The Princess Bride, Forrest Gump, and Wonder Woman to name just three. Robin Wright has also won a Golden Globe for her streaming work on House of Cards, but she’s yet to get on the Academy’s radar. Her directorial debut Land just played at the Sundance Film Festival. Wright also stars as someone looking for the meaning of life in the wilderness (shades of Wild with Reese Witherspoon). Costars include Demian Bichir and Kim Dickens.
Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 63%. Land is eligible for the 2020 Oscar season since the Academy expanded the calendar. The pic lands in theaters on February 12th. However, any talk of this being a late entry making waves is pretty much finished with the so-so reviews.
Bottom line: don’t make space for Land in your predictions. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.
However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.
In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.
Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. News of the World (PR: 11)
12. Soul (PR: 13)
13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robin Wright, Land
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Minari (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 2)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 9)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. Collective (PR: 7)
5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Sun (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. Mulan (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Emma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
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