Oscar Watch: Mortal Engines

The big-budget dystopian adventure Mortal Engines is out next weekend and signs are pointing to a sub par performance at the box office. While it’s directed by first timer Christian Rivers, it comes from the writing team of Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens. This is the trio behind the Lord of the Rings and Hobbit franchises, as well as 2005’s King Kong remake.

Those pictures have a slew of technical Oscar nominations and wins to their credit. So it’s worth wondering if Engines could compete in some of those races. Unlike most of the aforementioned pics, reviews are not strong here with a current rating of 38% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Visual Effects and the two sound categories could potentially be in play.

My feeling is that only Visual Effects is possible and that could be a stretch. MCU titles Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther likely have their spots reserved with a third (AntMan and the Wasp) in the mix. Disney also has Mary Poppins Returns and Solo: A Star Wars Story competing. Other serious contenders include First Man and Ready Player One.

Bottom line: I wouldn’t completely dismiss Engines as a contender for Visual accolades, but don’t count on it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Mortal Engines Box Office Prediction

The high budgeted dystopian adventure Mortal Engines hopes to bring in viewers next weekend  based mostly on its connections to the Lord of the Rings franchise. Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens share writing duties, just as they did on that blockbuster franchise. Unlike that series, Mr. Jackson is not directing as protegé Christian Rivers makes his feature-length debut. There’s no big stars in a cast that includes Hugo Weaving, Hera Hilmar, Robert Sheehan, Jihae, and Stephen Lang.

Even with its well-known talent behind the camera, Engines faces an uphill battle for attention. Reviews aren’t so hot with a current rating of 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could get lost in the glut of holiday titles and faces demographic competition from SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse, which opens directly against it.

With those challenges, I’m predicting the reported $100 million dollar effort will stall out of the gate. That means low single digits to low teens and the likelihood it won’t hold well in subsequent weekends.

Mortal Engines opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/04/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-box-office-prediction/

For my The Mule prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/05/the-mule-box-office-prediction/

Bad Samaritan Box Office Prediction

The horror thriller Bad Samaritan arrives in theaters next weekend and it seems to be flying pretty far under the radar. Dean Devlin directs his sophomore pic, but he’s been no stranger to audiences for decades. He was the producing partner of Roland Emmerich and was behind the scenes with efforts including Stargate, Independence Day, and the unfortunate 1998 version of Godzilla. Just last year, he put out his debut – disaster flick Geostorm. That mega-budgeted effort took in a weak $33 million domestically. Compared to what I expect Samaritan to do, Geostorm might be considered a blockbuster.

David Tennant, Robert Sheehan, Carlito Olivero, and Kerry Condon are among the cast members in the home invasion tale that turns into a fright fest. Genre fans have had their fix as of late with A Quiet Place and Truth or Dare.

Samaritan is slated to open on roughly 1800 screens, which is actually higher than Overboard or Tully (the two features opening on the same day). Even with more showings, I’ll project this premieres third of the three new releases in theaters that should be a quiet place of their own.

Bad Samaritan opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my Overboard prediction, click here:

Overboard Box Office Prediction

For my Tully prediction, click here:

Tully Box Office Prediction