Academy hopeful Conclave materializes in theaters on October 25th. Based on the Robert Harris novel, Ralph Fiennes headlines the thriller as a cardinal in charge of selecting the new Pope. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, and Lucien Msamati costar. Edward Berger, following up his nine-time Oscar nominee All Quiet on the Western Front from 2022, directs.
With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, Conclave is expected to vie for multiple awards races including Best Picture. That buzz could assist in bringing in an adult audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts out in the mid to possibly high single digits as it hopes for meager declines in later weekends. This forecast could change based on its final released screen count.
Conclave opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
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Edward Berger’s Conclave has premiered at Telluride prior to its November 1st domestic release. It is the filmmaker’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, which garnered nine Oscar nominations with victories in International Feature Film, Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave is based on a 2016 novel by Robert Harris. The thriller focuses on the behind closed doors battle to be the next Pope. Ralph Fiennes stars with Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, Lucian Msamati, and Carlos Diehz supporting.
Long seen as a potential across the board awards player, Conclave has seemingly lived up to the hype based on initial chatter. That especially holds true with Fiennes. The veteran actor has only been in contention twice at the Academy Awards for 1993’s Schindler’s List in supporting and 1996’s The English Patient in lead. Early reviews indicated that he’s not only a contender, but a threat to win.
The supporting cast is a little trickier to figure out. There is a possibility that Focus Features may train their focus on Fiennes for the gold. If anyone comes along for the ride, it appears Tucci might have an edge for Lithgow or Msamati. In Supporting Actress, Rossellini’s role is said to be small but crucial. Her inclusion should depend on how competition plays out. I don’t see any of the supporting performers as threats to emerge victorious.
I’ve had Conclave in my Best Picture lineup the whole way and that feels validated this weekend. I don’t think Berger is automatic for Director. Yet the fact that he was notably snubbed for Western Front could help his chances. Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all possibilities. For a movie about a high profile campaign, Conclave appears ready to start its own. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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