Tag: robert downey jr

2023 Oscar Predictions: September 23rd Edition

To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.

In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).

Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.

Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.

For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.

As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.

Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.

With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.

A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.

Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

The Book of Clarence

The Iron Claw

A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predited Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay

One Life

BlackBerry

Next Goal Wins

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Killer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

The Boy and the Heron

La Chimera

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia

They Shot the Piano Player

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Every Body (PR: 4) (-5)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Life

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

The Killer

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Beau is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

One Life

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)

8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)

10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

The Little Mermaid

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

4 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 2nd Edition

The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.

Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.

We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)

17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)

22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlackBerry

The Book of Clarence

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Judy Greer, Eric Larue

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Drive Away Dolls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)

10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)

13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dumb Money

Freud’s Last Session

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Perfect Days

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Wild Life (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kokomo City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Golda (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Spaceman

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Maestro

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 22nd Edition

It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.

When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.

And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.

That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.

Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.

For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.

With all that said, let’s get into it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)

16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)

20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)

21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)

22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)

23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, Air

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)

12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton, The Killer

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Monster

4. About Dry Grasses

5. The Pot-au-Feu

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron

7. Perfect Days

8. The Delinquents

9. Fallen Leaves

10. La Chimera

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Wish

5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

8. Robot Dreams

9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

3. The Eternal Memory

4. The Mother of All Lies

5. Wild Life

Other Possibilities:

6. 20 Days in Mariupol

7. Every Body

8. Kokomo City

9. Black Ice

10. It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Napoleon

5. The Color Purple

Other Possibilities:

6. The Killer

7. Poor Things

8. The Zone of Interest

9. Ferrari

10. Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Dune: Part Two

3. The Color Purple

4. Poor Things

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Chevalier

8. Oppenheimer

9. Wonka

10. Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Oppenheimer

4. Past Lives

5. Air

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple

7. Saltburn

8. Maestro

9. The Killer

10. Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Poor Things

3. Maestro

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. Barbie

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon

7. Golda

8. Beau is Afraid

9. The Color Purple

10. Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Elemental

5. Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Napoleon

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from “The Color Purple”

2. “The Wish” from Wish

3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie

9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives

10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. Napoleon

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie

7. Asteroid City

8. The Zone of Interest

9. The Color Purple

10. Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Napoleon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari

7. The Color Purple

8. Maestro

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Oppenheimer

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. The Creator

5. Wonka

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Killers of the Flower Moon

8. Poor Things

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

10. Spaceman

And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

7 Nominations

Past Lives

6 Nominations

Barbie

5 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall

3 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka

Dolittle Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/15): Revising prediction down to $22.3 million

Robert Downey Jr. can speak to animals in Dolittle, but will the film speak to family audiences when it opens next weekend? The pic takes the well known character (previously played by Rex Harrison and Eddie Murphy) and places him in a pricey $175 million budgeted adventure. Stephen Gaghan, known for directing the 2005 political thriller Syriana, is the rather surprising choice for behind the camera duties. Our marvelous cinematic Iron Man leads the human cast that also includes Harry Collett, Antonio Banderas, Michael Sheen, Jessie Buckley, and Jim Broadbent. Many familiar faces are responsible for voicing the animal cast. That list includes Emma Thompson, Rami Malek, John Cena, Kumail Nanjiani, Octavia Spencer, Tom Holland, Craig Robinson, Ralph Fiennes, Selena Gomez, and Marion Cotillard (four Oscar winners among them!).

Dolittle was slated to be released last spring before it underwent reportedly extensive reshoots. The release of a property like this with its budget and leading man in late January is a bit curious and perhaps concerning.

Opening over the long MLK weekend, Dolittle will be in a battle for first place with Bad Boys for Life. Gauging the box office prowess of Downey is tricky nowadays since he’s pretty much only been Tony Stark over the past several years (those movies sell themselves).

Family audiences have had plenty of titles to choose from in the past month including Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Spies in Disguise, and Jumanji: The Next Level. All three should bring in decent amounts of cash over the long frame. However, even with shaky buzz, Dolittle should hit mid to high 20s over the four days and north of $30 million is feasible. That puts it in second position based on my Bad Boys forecast or perhaps even third behind the second frame of 1917.

Dolittle opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Bad Boys for Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/08/bad-boys-for-life-box-office-prediction/

Holmes & Watson Box Office Prediction

If you thought Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law’s take on Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s sleuthing characters was a little silly, wait till you get a load of Holmes & Watson next week. The comedy casts Will Ferrell as Holmes and John C. Reilly as Watson with Etan Cohen (who worked with Ferrell in Get Hard) directs with a supporting cast including Rebecca Hall, Ralph Fiennes, Kelly Macdonald, Lauren Lapkus, and Hugh Laurie.

Ferrell and Reilly have, of course, headlined two hits from the previous decade – Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby and Step Brothers. Ironically, the maker of both of them (Adam McKay) has Vice debuting directly against this.

Technically this is the two principles fourth collaboration since Reilly had a cameo in Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues. This opens Christmas Day, which means it’s out on Tuesday. Movies generally perform strangely during the holiday frame. Previous films that have opened when 12/25 falls on Tuesday can see their Tuesday-Thursday gross match or even exceed the Friday-Sunday.

I expect that to occur here with Holmes getting close to lower double digits in the latter part of its six-day. That could mean low 20s for the first week run.

Holmes & Watson opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $22.3 million (Tuesday to Sunday)

For my Vice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/19/vice-box-office-prediction/

Avengers: Infinity War Box Office Prediction

It may feel like winter in many parts of the country even though it’s spring, but next weekend is essentially the start of the summer box office in 2018 when Avengers: Infinity War invades theaters. This is the 19th picture in the Marvel Cinematic Universe that began a decade ago with 2008’s Iron Man and the third installment of the Avengers franchise that kicked off in 2012 (an untitled fourth installment is out next summer).

After 10 years of these superheroes populating our screens in one form or another, Infinity War is the picture that brings them all together. That means we have the Avengers we’re used to seeing together: Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.), Captain America (Chris Evans), Thor (Chris Hemsworth), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson), and Hawkeye (Jeremy Renner). They’ve got a whole lot of company this time around, including Black Panther (Chadwick Boseman), Spider-Man (Tom Holland), Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch), Ant-Man (Paul Rudd), War Machine (Don Cheadle), Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), Falcon (Anthony Mackie), Loki (Tom Hiddleston), Bucky (Sebastian Stan), and the whole Guardians of the Galaxy gang (Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel). Josh Brolin is main villain Thanos. Other actors from the MCU returning include Gwyneth Paltrow, Idris Elba, Paul Bettany, Letitia Wright, Danai Gurira, Benicio del Toro, Cobie Smulders, Angela Bassett, Tessa Thompson, and Jon Favreau. Brothers Anthony and Joe Russo (who directed 2016’s Captain America: Civil War) are behind the camera. Whew…

The gathering of the entire MCU is one impressive selling point and there’s been developments that have even increased the anticipation for Infinity‘s release. Last summer’s Spider-Man: Homecoming was well-received, as were Guardians and Thor sequels. Yet perhaps more than anything else, this February’s Black Panther turned into a phenomenon – becoming the third highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

Projections have steadily increased in the past few weeks. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Infinity War could have the largest stateside opening of all time. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the $247 million achieved by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens. To accomplish the 2nd biggest debut, it would need to exceed the $220 million of last year’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It will almost certainly achieve the record for an MCU premiere, which is currently held by the original Avengers at $207 million.

I believe this will pass Jedi and rather easily. Getting to the Awakens number is doable, but I’ll project it falls a bit under that milestone.

Avengers: Infinity War opening weekend prediction: $240.2 million

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming Box Office Prediction

It was 15 summers ago when Spider-Man scored the largest domestic opening of all time (at that juncture) and helped kick off the comic book adaptation bonanza that has yet to let up today. We are now on our third web slinger iteration as Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters next weekend.

Of course, this is not our first time seeing Tom Holland as the new Spidey. He first appeared in last summer’s Captain America: Civil War. In this first solo effort, none other than Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man is appearing alongside him. Jon Watts directs with a supporting cast that includes Michael Keaton as the villainous Vulture, Marisa Tomei, Donald Glover, Jon Favreau, and Zendaya.

This co-production of Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios comes with a reported $175 million budget and lofty expectations. The second reboot of the beloved superhero series certainly is benefited by the new Spidey’s place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and his Avenger friends.

Homecoming is the sixth overall flick headlined by Spider-Man. Let’s take a trip down franchise lane, shall we?

In looking at the opening grosses of the five previous entries, it’s a bit of a web since some opened over long holiday weekends. The 2002 original made the aforementioned record-setting sum of $114 million out of the gate and $403M overall domestically. The 2004 follow-up opened over a five-day July 4th weekend with $88 million from Friday to Sunday, $151 million from Wednesday to Sunday, and $373M when all was said and done. 2007’s Spider-Man 3 (marking the final appearance of Tobey Maguire in the title role) set the franchise record opening of $151 million, but grossed $336M in total – the lowest of the trilogy. Five years later when Andrew Garfield inherited the tights, The Amazing Spider-Man rolled out over a long six-day July 4th frame with $62 million in the traditional weekend and $137 million over the long weekend. It would go on to make $262M. 2014’s sequel made $91 million for its start and a series low $202M overall.

Got all that? OK! So where does Homecoming stand in comparison? Let’s leave its predecessors alone for just a second as it’s unlikely this will match the overall grosses of this summer’s previous comic book tentpoles Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Wonder Woman. Both of those pics look to near $400 million domestically and place first and second for the season’s top earners. At one time, projections for the new Spidey were as high as $135 million, but they’ve since steadily declined. I believe this will reach over just over what the first picture accomplished a decade and a half ago.

Spider-Man: Homecoming opening weekend prediction: $117.8 million

 

Captain America: Civil War Movie Review

The Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to expand in often thrilling and impressive ways in Captain America: Civil War, which is by all intents and purposes a third Avengers pic where Hulk and Thor are apparently on a well-deserved vacation. It walks the tightrope of introducing new characters and finding new dynamics for the old ones without seeming gimmicky or overloading the audience with all its activity. To that end, director Joel and Anthony Russo are to be commended for mostly succeeding in this latest effort where our heroes are often unmasked and sometimes emasculated.

Civil War presents a chasm in the MCU that centers on Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) aka The Winter Solider from this trilogy’s slightly better second movie. His history with Captain America (Chris Evans) garners understandable sympathy from our title character. That isn’t the case with Tony Stark/Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) when it appears Bucky may be responsible for an attack on the United Nations.

There’s also the question of whether The Avengers actions across the globe are worth the collateral damage that sometimes comes with it. The U.S. government proposes to put some serious checks on their powers. Tony agrees. Cap does not. And the rest of the crew (minus Hulk/Thor sipping Mai tai’s somewhere) must choose which side to join. This include Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye (who comes out retirement from his boring home life Age of Ultron subplot), Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, and Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch. We also have Paul Rudd in the mix less than a year after his debut in Ant-Man, which was the other underwhelming MCU summer 2015 experience (along with Ultron). And then there’s the two newbies introduced who will soon have their own stand-alone features: Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man. Spidey is good for some solid one-liners and I enjoyed Holland’s take on Peter Parker. This budding franchise should hopefully eclipse what we saw the last time around with Andrew Garfield and company. That said, I actually found Black Panther’s plot line to be a bit more interesting here and I equally anticipate that solo pic.

Civil War also continues the tradition of rather forgettable central villains, with the exception of Tom Hiddleston’s Loki. Here it’s Daniel Bruhl as Zemo, whose motives are murky for most of the running time and who stands as just another baddie in a world where the heroes are the focal point. This entry isn’t really about a main villain, however. Rather it’s about deciding if you’re on Team Cap or Team Iron Man and the screenplay is smartly written enough that the answer isn’t automatic.

The MCU continues to build on itself and this one does so in the most entertaining way since Winter Soldier. By the time we get to the final Avengers pictures, Hulk and Thor will return. Guardians of Galaxies will be in the mix. And with the Mouse Factory behind this with their extensive array of characters, who knows who else we shall see? Will Rey and Finn cross star systems to appear? Which team will Mowgli align with? Will Kermit and Miss Piggy agree to follow Cap or Tony or split? As long as it’s satisfying like Civil War, I’m still curious to find out.

*** (out of four)

Avengers: Age of Ultron Movie Review

Avengers: Age of Ultron moves the Marvel Cinematic Universe onwards while answering the questions we’ve been pondering for years. How is the romantic relationship going between Hulk and Black Widow? What’s going on with Hawkeye’s wife and children out on their family farm?

Wait, what?

These two out of nowhere subplots are emblematic of a pervasive problem with the sequel to the 2012 mega blockbuster. When Joss Whedon made the original three years ago, it was hard to imagine him combining Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye into a cohesive and satisfactory experience. Did he ever though and it resulted in one of the greatest superhero tales to reach the screen. With Ultron, many of the fears that were assuaged the first time are present. Here, the struggle is real and Whedon can’t manage to recapture the magic the second time around.

The pic dives headfirst into Avengers action in Eastern Europe with our protagonists obtaining Loki’s old scepter and Tony Stark (Robert Downey Jr.) discovering its artificial intelligence capabilities. This results in the creation of Ultron (voiced by James Spader), a robotic monster hell bent on ending the world… you know, like all MCU villains. We’re also introduced to Quicksilver (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), characters played by different actors in last year’s in X-Men: Days of Future Past. Incidentally, Quicksilver was used much more effectively in the latter.

Of course, we have most of the Marvel crew back. Scarlett Johannson’s Black Widow, who’s turned into one of the more interesting characters even though her aforementioned romance with Dr. Bruce Banner aka Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) seems to be a forced concoction to earn them more screen time. Same goes for Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, who isn’t one of the more interesting players and his previously unseen family history doesn’t help. And there’s Chris Hemsworth’s Thor and Chris Evans’s Captain America, both coming off sequels that improved upon their predecessors. Not the case here. Samuel L. Jackson’s Nick Fury, Don Cheadle’s War Machine and Anthony Mackie’s Falcon appear in more limited fashion. The girlfriends of Iron Man and Thor (Oscar winners Gwyneth Paltrow and Natalie Portman, respectively) are missing.

Where Ultron serviceably succeeds is its action sequences, including a humdinger battle between Hulk and Iron Man. The Marvel team obviously know how to make these glorious battle sequences and they acquit themselves fine here, though nothing matches the brilliance of the 2012 edition’s breathtaking climactic sequence. The issues I had are several and not just the needless subplots. Ultron is not an especially compelling villain. Many of the humorous quips fall flatter than normal. Even Downey Jr. (truly an example of the perfect actor in the perfect role) isn’t as fun this time around.

In a way, I found Age of Ultron comparable to the third Hunger Games entry, Mockingjay – Part 1. It’s necessary to view it so we can move on to the rest. With the MCU, that includes two more Avengers pics and forthcoming Thor and Captain America threequels. Ultron is “must see” viewing for that reason and that reason alone. Yet I hope what comes next elevates beyond the material we are given this time.

**1/2 (out of four)

Avengers: Age of Ultron Box Office Prediction

The 2015 Summer Movie Season kicks off in grand fashion as Avengers: Age of Ultron debuts and looks to Hulk smash records. The mystery surrounding how it performs in its opening is centered on one question: will it have the biggest domestic debut in movie history? In order to do so, it’ll need to top the record currently held by its 2012 predecessor. That magic number is $207.4 million.

All the favorites are back, including director Joss Whedon with Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Black Widow, Hulk, Hawkeye, and more returning. Newbies include James Spader voicing the title character villain and Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Elizabeth Olsen as Quicksilver and Scarlet Witch. There are two more Avengers features already planned for 2018 and 2019. While a number of reviews say it doesn’t quite match the original, its 80% Rotten Tomatoes rating is solid.

There is little doubt that Ultron is highly primed to become summer’s largest grosser. Whether or not it reaches the $623M eventual mark of The Avengers remains to be seen (that’s good for the 3rd biggest hit ever behind Avatar and Titanic).

Some prognosticators are estimating it may not quite reach the heights of 2012 in its opening. The floor would seem to be in the $180M range, which would be just fine but still $25M under the first. While that’s certainly possible, I do believe Ultron will debut with around the same number of its predecessor… and a bit higher. That means I’m predicting Ultron will set a new benchmark in the category of all-time record openings and Disney and Marvel will be popping the champagne corks come next weekend.

Avengers: Age of Ultron opening weekend prediction: $212.7 million