96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 6th Edition

We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.

As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.

You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.

You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)

2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Society of the Snow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godland

The Monk and the Gun

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Suzume (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wish (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

American Fiction

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 17th Edition

My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.

In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.

Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.

You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Iron Claw

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fair Play

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

20 Days in Mariupol

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wish (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. American Symphony (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Every Body (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orlando, My Political Biography

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. El Conde (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Killer (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wonka (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nyad (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Golda (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)

8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire

Killers of the Flower Moon

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

May December

2 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).

Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.

Best Motion Picture Drama

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.

Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/6

In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.

Best Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.

Best Actress Drama

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.

Best Actor Drama

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.

Best Actress Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/6

Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).

Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/6

Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/6

Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

How I Did: 7/8

This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.

Best Non-English Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/6

Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

How I Did: 4/6

Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/6

Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 3/6

Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.

And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.

There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All of Us Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Air

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)

7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)

8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3 The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Four Daughters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. American Symphony (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nyad (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)

7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Joan Still” from Theater Camp

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Society of the Snow

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

2023 Oscar Predictions: November 29th Edition

As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.

We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.

The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.

You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Fair Play

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)

10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Monk and the Gun

The Peasants

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Peasants (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Four Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 3) (-3)

7. American Symphony (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Carmen

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)

5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 29th Edition

As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.

Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.

As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Origin

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Settlers

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (+2)

4. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Wild Life

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Chevalier (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wonka (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Ferrari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Golda (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carmen (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!

Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.

Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Origin

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Peasants

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elemental (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Peasants (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Every Body (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wild Life (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

The Killer

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chevalier (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Golda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Beau Is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Elemental (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Killer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Barbie

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)

10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish

1 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

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