Universal Pictures achieved box office success with a Cocaine Bear earlier this year. They’re hoping raunchy talking dogs sell tickets on August 18th when Strays debuts. Josh Greenbaum directs with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx lending their vocal talents to the headlining hounds. Isla Fisher and Randall Park also provide behind the mic work. Other cast members include Will Forte, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, Sofia Vergara, and Dennis Quaid.
Originally set for June, the studio would dream of Sausage Party style success. It premiered in the same mid-August frame in 2016 to over $30 million. Party also had considerably more buzz. Comedies have also struggled mightily in the past few years.
I could see this opening similarly to this summer’s No Hard Feelings and that would mean low to mid teens.
Marlon Wayans is a frequent presence in comedic horror mashups and they’ve been of the R rated variety with Scary Movie and its first sequel and A Haunted House and its follow-up. On the Netflix circuit, The Curse of Bridge Hollow ditches the scatological humor for a family friendly concoction about a Halloween obsessed town where the decorations come to life. It’s not hard to envision Adam Sandler or Eddie Murphy in the Dad role that Wayans fills. In fact, Sandler mined similar territory recently with Hubie Halloween. This one isn’t exactly a treat, but I found it more tolerable than that one.
Howard Gordon (Wayans) is a science teacher transported from Brooklyn to Bridge Hollow, a small New England town that looks quaint but is far from it. The residents wear their Patriots jerseys loudly and talk even more thunderously about the town’s spooky history. It involves the tale of Stingy Jack, whose mythology gave us the Jack-o’-lantern. You don’t want to wake him and that’s precisely what Howard’s teenage daughter Sydney does when they settle into their haunted house. She’s played by Priah Ferguson, a consistent bright spot on Netflix’s Stranger Things. The father/daughter relationship is a cliched one with Howard as the overbearing holiday skeptic who just needs to listen more. Mom (Kelly Rowland) really gets the short shrift. Her defining character trait is that she bakes inedible vegan desserts. The screenplay could’ve done better than “the wife can’t cook” material for the former Destiny’s Child and Freddy vs. Jason star.
Priah and Dad must get over their differences as they battle a slew of creatures of the crawly and skeletal variety. The special effects aren’t half bad. Hollow is aimed squarely at delighting kids and placating the adult supervision. It’s an easy and breezy watch and Wayans seems committed to the part. That’s more than I could say for Murphy, who appeared downright bored in The Haunted Mansion. Ferguson, on the other hand, doesn’t quite get to display the personality that’s so winning on her smash hit role as Erica Sinclair. A few chuckles come from a supporting cast including Rob Riggle, John Michael Higgins, and Lauren Lapkus as Bridge Hollow’s very New England accented Mayor.
Jeff Wadlow, whose traditional scary movies Truth or Dare and Fantasy Island were subpar, directs. Bridge Hollow is better than either of them. I realize all of my compliments likely sound hollow. That’s not inaccurate, but youngsters could do worse than dialing this up and the more seasoned viewer shouldn’t curse themselves for having to watch it.
My box office predictions have been in a dormancy stage as chains struggle to obtain new product in these COVID times. It picks up again next weekend with the release of The War with Grandpa as uncertainty continues with the financial viability for theatrical releases.
This comedy starring Robert De Niro has had a checkered history even before the virus. Shot in 2017, it was originally scheduled for a 2018 debut. However, its original distributor was The Weinstein Company and the release was shelved due to the high profile legal troubles of its founder. 101 Studios eventually picked it up and here we are.
Tim Hill directs and he’s mostly known for kid friendly and animated fare such as Alvin and the Chipmunks and this year’s The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run. Costars include Uma Thurman, Christopher Walken, Rob Riggle, Oakes Fegley, Cheech Marin, and Jane Seymour.
When Tenet underperformed stateside in July, it set off a wave of delays. That includes just this week as No Time to Die experienced another push (this time to Easter 2021). Simply put, audiences have yet to develop a comfort level with a return to multiplexes.
Don’t look for Grandpa to change that. The film’s trailer was greeted with some eye rolling as this looks like a return to De Niro comedic mediocrity (just months after a more acclaimed turn in The Irishman). The Coronavirus questions persist: how many venues will this actually play in? This is even more of an issue now that Regal Cinemas has announced the closure of over 500 theaters. Amidst all of this, I believe Grandpa will struggle to hit $2 million for a quiet start.
The War with Grandpa opening weekend prediction: $1.9 million
**Blogger’s Update (09/27/18): My estimate has risen to $27.6 million to $31.6 million
One of the most dependable comedic actors at the box office teams with one of the hottest newer names when Night School opens next weekend. Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish headline the pic about a group trying to pass their GED exam. Malcolm D. Lee (who just directed Haddish in her breakout Girls Trip) is behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Rob Riggle, Mary Lynn Rajskub, Taran Killam, Romany Malco, and Keith David.
Hart has been a model of consistency in recent years when it comes to high earners. In addition to just coming off the massive blockbuster Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, he’s had a handful of $30 million plus openers including Think Like a Man, both Ride Along features, Get Hard, and Central Intelligence. The Think Like a Man sequel almost reached $30 million while About Last Night made $25.6 million for its start. The low-end of the spectrum is The Wedding Ringer with $20.6 million. As for Lee and Haddish’s Trip, it took in $31.2 million.
The collaboration of these talents should yield pleasing results and the likely #1 spot over its made competitor – the animated Smallfoot. I’m a little skeptical this reaches $30 million, though it certainly could. A gross in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Night School opening weekend prediction: $31.6 million
Based on a 2006 Japanese flick, romantic drama Midnight Sun hopes to light up cinemas next weekend. It could face an uphill battle. From director Scott Speer, Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger (scion of Ahnuld) headline with the former playing a teen girl with a rare condition that makes her averse to sunlight. Mr. Schwarzenegger is her longtime crush. Rob Riggle and Quinn Shephard costar.
Since it’s not based on some YA novel with a lot of fans, I’m having a tough time picturing Sun breaking through with its intended young and female audience. The Open Road Films production is rolling out on approximately 2000 screens and I’ll say it doesn’t even manage to hit $5 million out of the gate.
Midnight Sun opening weekend prediction: $4 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million
Warner Bros is hoping to show a force of box office strength when 12 Strong debuts in theaters next Friday. Subtitled The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers, the action drama recounts the true story of the first fighters sent overseas immediately following the 9/11 attacks. Marking the directorial debut of former war photojournalist Nicolai Fuglsig, the cast includes Chris Hemsworth, Michael Shannon, Michael Pena, Trevante Rhodes, William Fichtner, and Rob Riggle.
Over the last few years, January has proven to be fertile ground for similarly themed pics. In 2014, Lone Survivor debuted to a terrific $37 million. Two years ago, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi took in a little over $19 million out of the gate, though it opened over the four-day MLK frame. The pinnacle of the genre (and openings for the month of January overall) was in 2015 when American Sniper astonished prognosticators with $107 million for its four-day MLK weekend premiere.
As you can see, it isn’t rare to see these true life war tales perform quite nicely with moviegoers. Hemsworth brings some star power and he’s just coming off the franchise best performance of his Thor series.
That said, expectations are certainly more in line with Benghazi and not Survivor and definitely not Sniper. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a debut slightly over $20 million, but I’ll estimate Strong takes in high teens for its start.
12 Strong opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
If nothing else, Sony Pictures Animation’s The Emoji Movie will go down in film lore as having Sir Patrick Stewart provide the voice of what is commonly called the “poop emoji”. He’s one of several famous faces lending voice to those things we send on our phones all day. They include T.J. Miller, Anna Faris, James Corden, Sofia Vergara, Christina Aguilera, and Rob Riggle.
The reported $50 million budgeted 3D computer-animated comedy isn’t the first pic based on something we associate with our iPhones and droids. That would be last summer’s The Angry Birds Movie, which debuted to $38 million. I don’t see Emoji quite reaching those numbers, yet I don’t see it as low as the $23 million earned out of the gate for this summer’s Captain Underpants, another non-sequel ‘toon.
I am forecasting this will basically fall between those debuts. In doing so, it may create a serious three-way battle for box office supremacy next weekend with the premiere of Atomic Blonde and the second weekend of Dunkirk.
The Emoji Movie opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
How to Be a Latin Lover hits stateside screens next weekend and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it could be a decent sleeper hit. The rom com stars Eugenio Derbez, who’s a massive movie star in Latin America. Lover boasts a supporting cast of recognizable faces including Salma Hayek, Rob Lowe, Kristen Bell, Michael Cera, Raquel Welch, and Rob Riggle.
In 2013, Derbez directed and starred in Instructions Not Included, which shocked domestic box office prognosticators when it made nearly $8 million on only 347 screens. It eventually made $44M in the U.S. Lover is bound to be a huge hit in Mexico when it premieres on May 5.
I don’t quite expect Instructions numbers here. Then again, no one saw Instructions coming either. I’ll say it manages between $5-possibly $7 million for a respectable showing.
How to Be a Latin Lover opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
TheGirlontheTrain isn’t the only title out next weekend based on a bestseller as MiddleSchool: TheWorstYearsofMyLife debuts. Based on James Patterson and Chris Tebbits’s 2011 book, the comedy aims to capitalize on its successful source material.
Griffin Gluck plays the middle schooler having a bad time with a supporting cast that includes Lauren Graham, Rob Riggle, and Andy Daly. Steve Carr (in his comfort zone after making other youth oriented yuck fests like Dr. Dolittle2 and PaulBlart: MallCop) directs.
My expectation is that this will have a tough time breaking through to teens. The marketing campaign has been somewhat quiet. At least the animated blockbusters this year are geared toward a pre-teen audience and their parents attend, too. School could struggle to reach double digits, resulting in middling numbers.
MiddleSchool: TheWorstYearsofMyLife opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Let’s Be Cops has roughly the effect of probably watching a student film trying to mimic a decent buddy cop comedy/action flick. And that may be an unfair insult to the work of students and their films. It’s amateurish, poorly written, and gives its actors (some of them quite talented, but you don’t see it here) little to work with. Director/co-writer Luke Greenfield and Nicholas Thomas’s screenplay is mostly devoid of anything resembling originality and quite absent of many genuine laughs.
The concept is simple: two lifelong buddies have made a pact to leave Los Angeles by the time they’re 30 if they haven’t “made it”. Justin (Damon Wayans Jr.) is a struggling video game developer and Ryan (Jake Johnson) is a once promising college quarterback sidelined by a past injury. Clearly they haven’t made it and they’re prepared to return to Columbus, Ohio (I don’t know why my city had to be brought into this mess). A costume party interferes with their California split when they dress up as cops and – wouldn’t you know it! – they get mistaken for actual law enforcement. Suddenly women find them attractive! They can get into clubs easily! And they get caught up with some bad guy Albanians!
Let us count just some of the citations of mediocrity (to be kind) in this screenplay:
1) Jake’s past football glory days cause him to spend his days voluntarily teaching a bunch of young boys the game while cussing them out the majority of the time. It’s more creepy than funny.
2) Justin is supposed to be some genius video game developer whose bosses just don’t understand him, but his “genius” pitch for a game called Patrolman seems really familiar and dull.
3) The main baddie played by James D’Arcy is quite possibly the most cliched villain in a genre ripe with them.
4) Talented comic performers like Rob Riggle and Natasha Leggero are saddled with little to do.
I could go on and the same rule applies to Johnson and Wayans Jr., who can’t rise above the material despite their efforts. And there’s Andy Garcia as the time honored crooked cop (the true nature of his character is supposed to a big reveal, but you won’t care).
The screenwriters bank on this flimsy premise of watching these two play boy in blue providing consistent humor for 100 minutes. It would have been great if “Let’s Be Just A Little Original” would have made it into their game plan.
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