Oscar Predictions: A Man Called Otto

Marc Forster’s A Man Called Otto is the second cinematic rendering of Fredrik Backman’s 2012 Swedish dramedy novel titled A Man Called Ove. The first originated from that nation in 2015, drew wide critical praise, and was nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Makeup Hairstyling at the Oscars.

The American remake is out for an awards qualifying run on December 30th before a wide release on January 13th. I’m really wondering if Sony Pictures dropped the ball a bit with their campaign. Reviews are of the mixed variety with a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 74%. However, this sounds like a crowdpleaser that might win over audiences and rustle up decent business.

In a stronger year for lead, I might discount Hanks. The two-time recipient of the prize and six-time nominee plays against type as a widowed grumpy old man. Four slots in the Actor derby seem spoken for: Austin Butler for Elvis (in which Hanks costars), Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser in The Whale, and Bill Nighy for Living. The fifth seems wide open with Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Hugh Jackman (The Son), and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) among those in contention. If Otto had been allowed a little more runway for its buzz to build, I’d throw Hanks in that mix. Now it might simply be too late.

That same logic applies to Mariana Treviño and even more so. The Mexican actress is getting rave notices. More than any other of the acting competitions, Supporting Actress has lots of possibilities and perhaps no slam dunk nominees. Had Sony mounted a spirited drive for Treviño, her inclusion would have been feasible. It’s still doable though unlikely.

There is one category where Otto could hear its name called. Of the 15 announced shortlist tunes for Original Song, “Til You’re Home” is in. The track is performed by the star’s wife Rita Wilson and Sebastiān Yatra. It was a surprise entry in the field and I’d be surprised if it makes the eventual five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Gloria Bell

After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, Gloria Bell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s A Fantastic Woman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.

Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.

A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for Still Alice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for The Wife.

Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will deal with something its predecessor never had to: expectations. The 2002 original (with a puny $5 million budget) came out of nowhere to become the highest grossing romantic comedy of all time, grossing $241 million domestically and earning an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay.

Original stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett are back, along with returnees Lainie Kazan, Michael Constantine, Andrea Martin, and Joey Fatone and newbies John Stamos and Rita Wilson (who co-produces like last time alongside her hubby Tom Hanks).

While the first Wedding was a rousing success story that defied any prognostications, it doesn’t help that it occurred fourteen years ago. That’s a long time between sequels and it hinders the possibility of younger audiences turning out that might not even be aware of the original’s existence. This is obviously aiming for female counter programming against Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which should draw a huge male audience.

Comedy sequels (especially long gestating ones) are a risky proposition, as Ben Stiller just learned with Zoolander No. 2. If this manages to reach $20 million or beyond in its opening weekend, that should be considered a win. Obviously, this stands zero shot at even reaching a third of its sleeper hit predecessor. I’m actually skeptical this reaches $15M and I’ll predict it won’t.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million

For my Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/16/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-box-office-prediction/