Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.
The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.
Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.
Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $122.4 million
2. Superman
Predicted Gross: $28 million
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. F1
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.
Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.
While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.
Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.
F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.
Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).
Paramount Animation hopes that Smurfs works for family audiences when it debuts July 18th. Based originally on a Belgian comic book series that turned into 1980s Saturday morning cartoon, Shrek the Third and Puss in Boots maker Chris Miller directs. Rihanna leads the voice cast as Smurfette. Others behind the mic include James Corden, Nick Offerman, JP Karliak, Daniel Levy, Amy Sedaris, Natasha Lyonne, Sandra Oh, Jimmy Kimmel, Octavia Spencer, Nick Kroll, Hannah Waddingham, Alex Sinter, Maya Erskine, Kurt Russell, and John Goodman.
The musical comedy hopes to reinvigorate a series that saw diminishing returns for the blue characters on the silver screen. 2011’s The Smurfs blended live-action with animation to terrific results with a $35 million opening and $142 million domestic haul. The 2013 follow-up essentially cut those earnings in half with an $18 million start and $71 million stateside. Smurfs: The Lost Village in 2017 was fully animated and totally underwhelming with $13 million out of the gate and $45 million overall.
Taking over distribution rights from Sony, Paramount is banking on Rihanna and nostalgia for this to land. That could be a challenge as younger viewers have had options this summer and the IP may not be one they’re even that familiar with.
Indications are that this might be lucky to match even the lowly Village numbers. That could mean just surpassing double digits or low teens.
Smurfs opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my I Know What You Did Last Summer prediction, click here:
This little blog of mine is over 10 years old now and a summer tradition has been to highlight the cinematic seasons of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We saw recaps of 1992, 2002, and 2012 around this time in 2022. Now this site is aged enough that I shall only look back at a decade ago. Therefore let’s shine a light on 2013 and the offerings between May and August.
Here’s how it works. I’ll recount the top 10 grossers domestically as well as other notable features and noteworthy flops. It was the summer after The Avengers dominated and Tony Stark still managed to rule in his own franchise.
Let the countdown begin!
10. The Great Gatsby
Domestic Gross: $144 million
Baz Luhrmann’s second collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio may have drawn mixed critical reaction, but audiences turned up and it won both Oscars it was nominated for (Production Design and Costume Design). It is still the stylish filmmaker’s largest worldwide earner even with last year’s success of Elvis.
9. We’re the Millers
Domestic Gross: $150 million
Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headlined this raunchy comedy from Dodgeball maker Rawson Marshall Thurber. Like Gatsby, critics weren’t overly kind but crowds liked what they saw.
8. The Heat
Domestic Gross: $159 million
Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy (hot off Bridesmaids) teamed up for this buddy cop laugher from Paul Feig and it became the summer’s hottest live-action movie in its genre. Bullock would have a massive earner and Oscar nod in the fall with Gravity.
7. World War Z
Domestic Gross: $202 million
Some had it pegged as a potential financial disappointment, but this would turn out to be the biggest grossing zombie flick ever. Despite Brad Pitt’s presence and plenty of development rumors, a planned sequel has yet to materialize.
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
Domestic Gross: $228 million
JJ Abrams helmed this sequel two and a half years before taking on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It holds the title of best global earning movie of the franchise.
5. Fast & Furious 6
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Vin Diesel and Paul Walker revved the series to unforeseen moneymaking heights at the time though part 7 would outdo it two years later. Six months after 6‘s release, Walker perished tragically in auto accident.
4. Monsters University
Domestic Gross: $268 million
The long gestating sequel to 2001’s Monsters University was a profitable venture for Pixar. It failed to nab an Animated Feature nod from the Academy (rare for the studio), but Disney likely wept into their cash.
3. Man of Steel
Domestic Gross: $291 million
The first picture in the DCEU came with gargantuan expectations with Zack Snyder directing and Henry Cavill donning the S. Reaction from critics and audiences was all over the map. Compared to this summer with the epic failure of The Flash, these were kinda the good ole days for DC.
2. Despicable Me 2
Domestic Gross: $368 million
Illumination dwarfed Pixar in the animated race with this sequel that became parent studio Universal’s most profitable film of all time. It’s also responsible for the season’s ubiquitous ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams.
1. Iron Man 3
Domestic Gross: $409 million
Tony Stark’s third solo adventure was generally considered an improvement on #2 as Shane Black handled the behind the camera work. It ended up as the year’s second best grosser behind November’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Now for some others worthy of discussion:
The Conjuring
Domestic Gross: $137 million
It might be just outside the top ten in 11th, but James Wan’s horror classic spawned a decade’s worth of sequels (two thus far) and spin-offs (Annabelle, The Nun) with no end in sight.
Now You See Me
Domestic Gross: $117 million
The heist pic from Louis Leterrier (who just directed Fast X) was a sleeper smash with a $350 million worldwide haul. A less regarded sequel came in 2016.
The Butler
Lee Daniels helmed this decades spanning tale of Forest Whitaker’s White House employee with Oprah Winfrey as his troubled wife. The studio was likely hoping for more awards attention than it ended up with, but the earnings were impressive.
Pacific Rim
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Guillermo del Toro’s monster mashup didn’t wow with a significant domestic take, but the overseas dollars were enough to spawn a panned 2018 sequel. The international haul makes it the Oscar winner’s personal best.
This Is the End
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This end of the world saga from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg was a star studded (from Michael Cera to Rihanna) dark comedy with critics on its side.
The Purge
Domestic Gross: $64 million
This dystopian horror pic launched another money minting series and was an early sleeper success for Blumhouse.
Blue Jasmine
Predicted Gross: $33 million
That number marks an impressive one for Woody Allen in the 21st century and this nabbed Cate Blanchett a Best Actress Academy Award.
Fruitvale Station
Domestic Gross: $16 million
Marking the first collaboration between Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, this indie drama was a critical darling. The pair would achieve colossal success in the years to follow with Creed and Black Panther.
There were lots of hits a decade ago. Yet there’s always the projects that don’t match expectations.
The Hangover Part III
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Audiences were growing weary of The Wolf Pack in the lambasted third entry. It came in well below the previous two.
Elysium
Domestic Gross: $93 million
Neill Blomkamp’s District 9 in 2009 was nominated for Best Picture. This sci-fi follow up with Matt Damon was considered a letdown by not joining the century club.
The Lone Ranger
Domestic Gross: $89 million
I’m gonna go ahead and say you couldn’t green light this $250 million adventure starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer today. It turns out Disney shouldn’t have 10 years ago as this came in far under expectations. The box office magic that director Gore Verbinski and Depp created with Pirates of the Caribbean was gone.
White House Down
Predicted Gross: $73 million
Roland Emmerich’s latest with Channing Tatum as a secret service agent and Jamie Foxx as POTUS had its thunder stolen in the spring by the similarly themed and better regarded Olympus Has Fallen (which spawned two sequels).
After Earth
Predicted Gross: $60 million
Moviegoers slapped down M. Night Shyamalan’s sci-fi epic starring the father son duo of Will and Jaden Smith. Reviews were harsh with a 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
The Internship
Domestic Gross: $44 million
Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s 2005 romp Wedding Crashers was a $209 million earning smash. Eight years later, very few signed up for this forgettable reunion.
R.I.P.D.
Predicted Gross: $33 million
It might have been going for the Men in Black crowd, but audiences shunned this sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. Somehow a direct to DVVD prequel was commissioned and released last year.
And there you have it! A look back at 2013 in the multiplex. I’ll have a 2014 recap conjured up next summer…
Blogge’s Update (02/16): It has been announced that Magic Mike’s Last Dance is significantly increasing its screen count from 1500 venues to over 3000 in weekend #2. Therefore I’m upping my estimate from $4 million to $5.5 million along with giving slight bumps to Avatar and Puss in Boots. Ant-Man remains unchanged.
The Marvel Cinematic Universe begins Phase Five as their 31st picture Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania looks to easily have the biggest debut since Avatar: The Way of Water. We also have low-budget British slasher Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey straying far from its Disney version out on Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the duo here:
Keep in mind that this is a holiday weekend so my projections are for Friday to Monday. Ant-Man and the Wasp from 2018 built upon the premiere of the 2015 original – $75 million vs. $57 million. Quantumania should continue that trend with a four-day haul of over $100 million.
The rest of the top five should be holdovers and I have Magic Mike’s Last Dance sliding the furthest from 1st to 5th after a shaky start (more on that below). That said, Winnie is a potential spoiler. Reportedly shot for under $100k, it could capture the attention of horror fans and exceed my estimate of $3.5 million from Friday to Monday and $4.7 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. I currently have it just outside the high five. Keep an eye on this post. That could change by lock time on Thursday.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $109.1 million
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Magic Mike’s Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. 80 for Brady
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (February 10-12)
Moviegoers mostly stayed home this weekend and not just on Sunday for the Super Bowl and/or Rihanna concert. Everything came in a tad shy (or more than a tad in a couple of cases) of my predictions.
Magic Mike’s Last Dance was a muted #1 with $8.3 million. Warner Bros didn’t seem to have much faith in it as its release was on a scant 1500 screens. So while the per theater average surpassed predecessor Magic Mike XXL (2015), it fell far short in terms of actual gross. I said it would $10.7 million.
Avatar: The Way of Water rose a spot to second with $7.2 million, in line with my $7.5 million take as it hit $647 million. Per above, it should stay put in second this weekend.
The 25th anniversary re-release of Titanic couldn’t match my expectations. James Cameron’s first picture to become the highest grosser of all time added $6.7 million to its coffers. I thought it would be #1 and guesstimated $11.6 million. Don’t feel sorry for Leo and Kate. After a quarter century, it is now at a devilish $666 million stateside.
80 for Brady, with sturdy competition for the female demo with Magic Mike and Titanic, suffered in its sophomore outing with $5.8 million. I projected $8.1 million. The 54% plummet is a little troubling and it is now at $24 million after ten days.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $5.5 million (I said $5.6 million) for $158 million overall.
Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin was burned in weekend #2, falling from 1st to 6th. It plummeted 62% with $5.4 million (under my $5.9 million forecast) for a mere $23 million thus far.
It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.
There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.
As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.
Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?
Best Picture
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
How I Did: 8/10
No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.
As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).
Best Director
The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 3/5
In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
How I Did: 3/5
Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 3/5
Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
How I Did: 4/5
Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
How I Did: 3/5
Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 4/5
Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
How I Did: 4/5
Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 3/5
Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
How I Did: 4/5
Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 4/5
A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.
Best Sound
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.
That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Elvis
7 Nominations
The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red
So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!
Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.
I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.
The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.
Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).
As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.
Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.
We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!
Shortlists covering seven of the feature film races at the Oscars were unveiled this afternoon. We now know the 15 pictures that will contend for Best Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. Additionally, we have our 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects.
I’ll go over each competition below, but I went 62 for 90 in my overall picks. It was a good day for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and All Quiet on the Western Front. They got in everywhere they reasonably could have.
With The Batman and Everything Everywhere All at Once, it was a mixed announcement as both made the cut for some and not others where they were expected to. The documentary Good Night Oppy had perhaps the worst day. It was widely anticipated to get in for Documentary and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and made neither.
Let’s break it down! **Selections that I correctly called are in bold
Best Original Score
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
HOW I DID: 9/15
The most notable omissions here are Empire of Light and The Batman while Devotion in particular wasn’t expected to be included. I also incorrectly named Bardo, Living, RRR, and White Noise. My top 5 from my projections 3 days ago (Women Talking, Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin) remain.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Dust and Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
“Time” from Amsterdam
HOW I DID: 10/15
As expected, there’s some heavy hitters in the mix with Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Selena Gomez (who I didn’t predict). The highest profile omission is Billie Eilish for “Nobody Like U” in Turning Red. My other misses were “Keep Rising” from The Woman King, “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me (a miss for Jennifer Lopez), and “Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
HOW I DID: 13/15
My best showing as I incorrectly had Spain’s Alcarras and Mars One from Brazil. India saved a little face with Last Film Show getting in. They didn’t select RRR and it could have won. There are really no major surprises here.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory
HOW I DID: 10/15
I took a swing by not including The Territory and it got in. As forthe aforementioned Good Night Oppy and Sr., they were anticipated to be here and are not. My other whiffs were Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, Riotsville, U.S.A., and Wildcat. My high five from December 18th – All That Breathes, Navalny, Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Descendant – remain.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale
HOW I DID: 7/10
Here’s a race where Everything Everywhere isn’t to be found. I also went with Three Thousand Years of Longing and The Woman King. Once again my top five from the weekend is in. The Crimes of the Future nod is truly unexpected.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 7/10
Once again my quintet of picks from 3 days ago are safe. Nope is a significant omission as is RRR (Thirteen Lives is my other miss). The unexpected addition of the Bowie doc Moonage Daydream is being praised.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
ThirteenLives
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 6/10
Here’s where my predicted five will undoubtedly be altered when I make my update. I had Everything Everywhere and RRR at 3rd and 4th, respectively. They are gone. I also incorrectly called Good Night Oppy and Thor: Love and Thunder. This means Avatar (which should win), Maverick, and Multiverse are the trio remaining that I projected. In my view, this bodes well for Panther getting in. The fifth slot is far trickier to estimate at the moment.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have updated predictions in all races up before Christmas!
Avatar: The Way of Water surfaces on your 3D and IMAX screens this Friday. It is, of course, James Cameron’s follow-up to 2009’s original which still stands as the biggest worldwide grosser of all time (and third overall domestically). The social media embargo lifted last week and the common refrain was “don’t bet against James Cameron”. I held off on my Oscar speculation until the official review embargo lapsed. That happened today.
Currently at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes (part 1 ended up at 82%), many critics are claiming this is an improvement over the first. Some of the same gripes remain including that it is overlong (3 hours and 12 minutes) and underdeveloped in its screenplay. Praise for its technical work is more universal.
In 2009, Avatar made an Oscar splash with nine nominations: Picture, Director, Art Direction (now Production Design), Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing (the Sound races are now combined), and Visual Effects. It won 3 – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Visual Effects.
Water has a chance of receiving the same number of nods. On Monday, the Golden Globes put it in their five for Picture (Drama) and Director. I already believe the Academy will make room for this in BP. It should be the second massive international blockbuster (alongside Top Gun: Maverick) in the mix. Cameron showing up in the directing quintet is not as automatic.
Let’s dispense with the easiest items. This is going to win Visual Effects just like its predecessor. That’s one of the slam dunk categories you can cross off already. Production Design and Cinematography and Sound are all probable inclusions. I’m less certain about the score and editing. Then there’s the Weeknd, who contributed the song “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)”. I’m not so sure about its strength in that competition. He needs to overcome other superstars such as Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Billie Eilish and that could be a tall order.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed the performances or the screenplay. While there’s kudos for returnees like Zoe Saldana and Sigourney Weaver (in a different role than in 2009), don’t expect the acting to capture the attention of voters. Given that the writing is the most faulted aspect, don’t hold your breath expecting Cameron and cowriters Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver to contend.
Bottom line: Avatar: The Way of Water looks to be Cameron’s third movie in a row (after Titanic and Avatar) to be in the BP race. Look for its nomination total to be at least 4-5 and maybe more. In other words, to borrow a phrase from most of Twitter last week, don’t bet against James Cameron. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.
I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.
On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.
Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.
Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
How I Did: 3/5
Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)
Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
How I Did: 3/5
I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: All Quiet on theWestern Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
How I Did: 4/5
This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
How I Did: 4/5
This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
How I Did: 4/5
Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.
That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
5 Nominations
Babylon, The Fabelmans
3 Nominations
Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hopes to land the biggest opening of 2022 when it debuts this weekend. Disney would also love to see the MCU sequel to 2018’s cultural phenomenon achieve the awards love that its predecessor got. It’s not out of the question that it could.
The review embargo is up today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is an impressive 90% (under part 1’s 96%). Critics are praising the film’s treatment of the loss of its star Chadwick Boseman in 2020. There is some griping about it being overlong. Few reviews are saying it surpasses the original in terms of quality.
The first Panther was nominated for 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. Still the only superhero pic to make the BP cut, it took 3 of 7 (Score, Production Design, Costume Design). The other nods were Original Song (“All the Stars” from Kendrick Lamar) and Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (these categories have since been combined).
All 3 races where it won four years ago could pop up this time around. Production Design and Costume Design seem like givens. Sound appears a fairly safe bet. Same with Original Song as Rihanna’s closing credits ballad “Lift Me Up” is a threat to win. Ironically, Mr. Lamar lost in 2018 to Lady Gaga and “Shallow”. Gaga could strike again with “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick.
Panther did miss Visual Effects four years back and there were grumbles about the quality. The general consensus is that Wakanda‘s effects are a step up. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to make the VE quintet. However, I do think it has the best shot of the MCU’s 2022 slate (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder are the others).
As for performances, I could see Angela Bassett nabbing some ink. Ultimately I don’t see a second nom materializing nearly 30 years after her first one for What’s Love Got to Do with It.
Now the major question – can Wakanda Forever get a BP nomination? Short answer is yes. Longer answer is more complicated. With Maverick, there’s already one sequel that looks pretty safe. We still have Avatar: The Way of Water and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery waiting in the wings. I think it’s logical to say we won’t see four sequels in BP. Three seems like a stretch. While I wouldn’t discount Wakanda in the big race, I believe the more feasible scenario is tech nods and possibly 5 to even 7 of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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