Tag: Ridley Scott

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Director Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.

So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).

The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.

Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?

Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.

Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.

James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.

Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.

RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.

Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.

I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.

Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.

That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.

So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.

And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.

DGA Predicted Nominees

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Jan 3-5 Box Office Predictions

2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.

While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.

The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

5. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $13 million

6. A Complete Unknown

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (December 27-29)

In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.

Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.

Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.

Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.

Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.

The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.

Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.

Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.

In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.

Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Kraven the Hunter and anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim hope to get lucky at the box office this weekend while Moana 2 and Wicked look to maintain the 1-2 spots. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Box Office Prediction

Kraven arrives after multiple delays amid muted buzz. It will hope for numbers closer to the Venom franchise as opposed to Madame Web, but that could be wishful thinking. My low to mid teens forecast puts in third behind the fourth frame of Wicked.

As for Rings, it could exceed expectations simply due to brand recognition. While some anime fans could turn up in addition to Tolkien aficionados, I have it flopping in fourth barely ahead of Gladiator II.

Moana 2 should manage a third weekend in 1st with a mid 40s decline.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (December 6-8)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw even bigger declines than I figured with the top four remaining unchanged. Disney’s Moana 2, after its record shattering debut, fell 63% to $51.2 million compared to my $55.1 million prediction. Nevertheless the Mouse Hunt smash sequel has amassed $299 million since its start.

Wicked was second with $36.4 million (down 55%) and I incorrectly had it holding steadier with $48 million. In three weeks, the Golden Globe nominated Best Musical or Comedy has taken off with an astounding $322 million in three weeks.

Gladiator II was third with $12.5 million, again not matching my loftier $14.8 million projection. Ridley Scott’s follow-up brought its three-week tally to $132 million.

Red One held the four spot at $7 million (I said $7.6 million). The holiday offering continues to inch toward nine digits with $85 million in four weeks.

Finally, epic Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule was fifth with $4.8 million from Friday to Sunday. That didn’t match my $5.9 million expectation though it has made $9.3 million since being unveiled on Wednesday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The post Thanksgiving frame, as it normally is, should be ruled by leftovers as Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule looks to be the only newcomer in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Pushpa 2: The Rule Box Office Prediction

Moana 2 decimated all Turkey Day weekend records (more on that below). The Mouse House sequel might see a drop in the high 50s to low 60s range and that would still be good for $50M+ in its sophomore outing.

It should manage to edge phenomenon Wicked in its third go-round. However, if the Broadway adaptation only dips 40% or below, it could leapfrog Moana for the #1 spot. I have it easing in the low to mid 40s.

Gladiator II and Red One should stay in 3rd and 4th with Pushpa 2 in the mid singe digits for the five spot.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $55.1 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $48 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Pushpa 2: The Rule

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

Disney’s Frozen II went into Thanksgiving 2024 with the best ever five-day take over the holiday. Moana 2 topped it with $100 million to spare! The follow-up to 2016’s original surpassed expectations with $139.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $225.4 million since its Wednesday bow. That crushes my respective takes of $92.1 million and $130.3 million. As anticipated, it did propel the box office to its highest Thanksgiving earnings of all time.

Wicked kept bringing in crowds in second with $81.1 million, zooming past my $71.6 million forecast. Already the largest grossing Broadway adaptation in history, the two-week tally is $263 million.

Gladiator II was third with $31 million, slashing beyond my $27.5 million prediction. The Ridley Scott sequel to his Best Picture winner stands at $111 million after two outings.

Fourth place was Red One, which declined only 4% for $12.7 million. I was less charitable at $9.4 million and the three-week total is $75 million.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever rounded out the top five at $3.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside of the high five and it has made $31 million after four weeks.

Venom: The Last Dance, which I had in 5th, was 7th with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) for $137 million in six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 29-December 1 Box Office Predictions

Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Moana 2 Box Office Prediction

It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.

Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.

Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.

Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $71.6 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 22-24)

Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.

Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.

Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.

Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.

Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Gladiator II Review

Denzel Washington’s work in Gladiator II is so strong and he is so entertaining to watch that it’s a bit distracting. There are other distractions that are undoubtedly negatives like subpar CG baboons and the choice to fill the Colosseum with frickin sharks. With the two-time Oscar winner having a ball as an ambitious former slave turned gladiator manager, it made me want the movie to be trained more on him. Instead his Macrinus is trapped in a long gestating sequel to the 2000 Best Picture recipient that might not work much at all without him. It’s like if Denzel’s Alonzo Harris character in Training Day was dropped into a Fast and Furious flick. There’s plenty of fun to be had thanks to him, but it stalls when he’s not around.

Ridley Scott returns to the director’s chair for this follow-up set 16 years after Maximus (Russell Crowe) drew his brave last breath in Rome. The city is not in great shape although the expansive wide shots make it look breathtaking. Co-emperors Geta (Joseph Quinn) and Caracella (Fred Hechinger) are unstable rulers with a thirst for overpowering more territories. Caracella is also a syphilitic lunatic with a pet monkey he eventually empowers so that’s good for a couple of bonkers moments. The boys’ chief general is Acadius (Pedro Pascal) who’s married to Lucilla (Connie Nielsen). As you’ll recall, she is the sister to Gladiator‘s Commodus (Joaquin Phoenix) and former lover to Crowe’s Maximus. Acadius conquers, but he conquers with compassion (awww). He has plans to depose Geta and Caracella (and maybe that monkey) and return Rome to its former glory.

It’s not, I realize, an accident that it’s taken until paragraph 3 to mention the star of the movie. That would be Lucius (Paul Mescal). Introduced to us as Hanno, he’s living a seemingly pleasant laundry hanging life with his wife in the province of Numidia when Acadius and his army come a’conquering. His wife’s screen time is short-lived (just like Maximus’s in the original) and he’s soon vowing revenge on the Roman power structure. Lucius was a boy in the first film played by Spencer Treat Clark – son of Maximus and Lucilla who was sent away for his own protection. Maybe I should have said spoiler alert with the lineage reveal, but it’s right there in the trailer.

When Denzel’s Macrinus offers him a chance to achieve vengeance, Lucius is booked for battle in the same Colosseum like his departed dad. That brings us back to dodgy computer generated baboons and filling the iconic arena with sharks. Apparently water logged events did occur at that venue historically though the participation of the finned feeders was unlikely. The fights are more effective in Gladiator II on the human scale when they don’t involve aquatic or jungle creatures.

The film’s biggest flaw is that Mescal’s Lucius doesn’t have the screen presence that Crowe did. He’s not helped by the screenplay where he’s a bit of a blank slate. Maximus struck fear onscreen when he was unmasked and revealed as a super warrior. I didn’t buy it as much with his offspring when he comes out and plays.

Washington, though, is a blast as he schemes for power (and probably his 10th Oscar nomination). I’d offer that Gladiator II is worth watching for him. Yes, there’s plenty of impressive technical work and sometimes it elevates beyond a rehash of part 1’s beats (though often it doesn’t). Without Macrinus in attendance, the Colosseum would feel considerably emptier.

*** (out of four)

November 22-24 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (11/20): I have posted a $4 million forecast for Bonhoeffer today which puts it in fourth place. That change is reflected below and we now have a top 7 projections.

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Hollywood hopes for a massive box office weekend ahead as Wicked and Gladiator II look to inject $200 million or more in domestic receipts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction
Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

In July 2023, the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer occurred when Barbie soared with a $162 million starting haul while Oppenheimer took in $82 million. I don’t think the grosses will be as gargantuan with Wicked and Gladiator II, but multiplexes should be in for a much needed boost.

Wicked adapts the well-known stage musical with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as early versions of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch from The Wizard of Oz, respectively. This is part 1 of Jon M. Chu’s fantasy musical with part II arriving in a year. I’m projecting nearly $135 million out of the gate as a wide audience seems destined to greet it.

Gladiator II is the long-in-development follow-up to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner with Paul Mescal headlining and Denzel Washington in an Oscar baity supporting turn. My high 60s forecast puts it in the runner-up position. I would note that either of these titles could over perform and keep on this post to see if there are any upgrades by Thursday.

With families flocking to Wicked and action fans packed for Gladiator, current champ Red One will slide to third. The holiday themed action comedy may experience a decline north of 50% considering the fresh competition.

The rest of the high five will consist of holdovers Venom: The Last Dance and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in a close race for fifth. Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $134.6 million

2. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million

3. Red One

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

4. Bonhoeffer

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (November 15-17)

On one hand, Red Notice with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans was originally set for Amazon only distribution so any number is better than nothing. On the other, its debut is fairly ho-hum considering the reported $250 million price tag. It made $32.1 million which did manage to exceed my $27.6 million take. As mentioned, I do expect a hefty dip though it could rebound over the Turkey Day frame.

Venom: The Last Dance was second after three weeks in 1st with $7.3 million, falling behind my $10.2 million prediction. The comic book based threequel sits at $127 million after four outings.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $5.2 million. In a trend from this past weekend, it didn’t match my number as I pegged it at $7.6 million. The two-week tally is $19 million.

Heretic was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $6.3 million) as Hugh Grant horror thriller’s total is $20 million after its second go-round.

The Wild Robot rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $5.5 million call. The animated tale has earned $137 million in eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years after Ridley Scott’s original epic stormed the box office and the Academy Awards, Gladiator II enters cinematic arenas on November 22nd. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus with Scott back in the director’s chair. Costars include Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Derek Jacobi, Connie Nielsen (back as the sister to Joaquin Phoenix’s departed Commodus), and Denzel Washington (generating Oscar buzz for his role).

With a reported budget north of $200 million, the long-in-development sequel should capitalize on a quarter century of goodwill from the Best Picture winning part 1. Reviews are decent with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic.

The $60-$75 million forecast for its debut sounds about right. I am hesitant to take the over as some viewers may wait until the following Thanksgiving frame to make the multiplex trek. I’ll put it in the upper end of that range for a second place showing to Wicked.

Gladiator II opening weekend prediction: $69.8 million

For my Wicked prediction, click here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Gladiator II

At the dawn of the 21st century, Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator scored a colossal 12 Oscar nominations and won a handful including Best Picture, Actor (Russell Crowe), Costume Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Other nods included Scott’s direction (he lost to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic), Supporting Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Original Screenplay.

Nearly a quarter century later, Gladiator II is in multiplexes November 22nd. Its battle for Academy recognition could be more challenging. Scott returns behind the camera with Paul Mescal leading a cast that includes Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Connie Nielsen (reprising her role from part 1), and Denzel Washington.

As can sometimes be the case, initial screening reactions from the long-in-development sequel might have been a tad hyperbolic. The review embargo lifted today paints a clearer picture. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 78% with Metacritic at 67. Somewhat surprisingly, that’s in line with its predecessor’s numbers. Yet most critics say this doesn’t measure up to the original.

A Best Picture nom is not out of the question, but I’m currently projecting it won’t make the cut. Its strongest shot in BP will come if voters feel the need to throw at least a couple massive blockbusters in the mix. Dune: Part Two and Wicked (which opens the same day) could fit the bill. Mr. Scott’s direction and the screenplay are long shots. As for the down the line competitions, it could land mentions in Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Original Score is possible but unlikely and I’d say the same for Cinematography. When it comes to wins in those tech derbies, it’ll have to contend with Dune which is in a better position for victories.

While Crowe and nemesis Joaquin Phoenix were both up for their performances at the 73rd ceremony, only Denzel Washington seems to be viable at the 97th. He’s being singled out for his work and could be headed toward nomination #10 in Supporting Actor. If he makes the final quintet, a win is probably not in the cards as I’d certainly put him behind Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) at press time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…